Friday, December 28, 2012

2012 Week 17 Preview: Vikings vs Packers

Brett Favre's time in Minnesota ignited a lot of dislike for the
Vikings in Packers Nation. Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

This is the only game this weekend, other than the Redskins/Cowboys game (which I will preview tomorrow), that features a team in a win-and-in situation.

The Minnesota Vikings are at home for a 4:25 p.m. kickoff against the Green Bay Packers in a game that will seal their playoff fate. If the Vikings lose, it would take a miracle and a half to get them in the playoffs. A win clinches them a spot and knocks Chicago, New York, and the loser of the Skins/Cowboys game out of the playoff picture.

Adrian Peterson has been phenomenal all season. A week ago, I predicted that he would not break the all-time single-season rushing record because he had to play Houston and Green Bay. He didn’t top 100 yards against Houston, and it looks like I may have been right about him not breaking the record. But he is still my top choice for MVP if the Vikings get into the playoffs.

Side note: AP is still my top choice if the Vikings miss the playoffs, but the NFL rarely, if ever, awards the MVP to a player on a team that misses the playoffs.

Despite Peterson only gaining 86 yards, the Minnesota defense did pretty well for itself, holding the Texans to just six points in Reliant Stadium. Christian Ponder has yet to top 200 passing yards in a game since the team’s Week 11 bye – he had six such games in the first ten weeks of the season.

On Green Bay’s side, they have had three different leading rushers in the past four weeks and Aaron Rodgers has had only one game since their Week 10 bye in which he didn’t pass for at least 200 yards. He also only had one sub-200 game in the first nine weeks.

The Vikings are on a 3-game winning streak, also beating the Bears and Rams in the past three weeks. Green Bay’s winning streak is slightly longer at four games, but it includes a 23-14 Week 13 win over Minnesota and they are coming off a 55-7 romp at home against Tennessee last Sunday.

Remember what I said about how much Minnesota is playing for on Sunday? Well, don’t expect Green Bay to just let them in. Green Bay can lock up a first-round bye with a win over their NFC North rival.

The biggest question for me is how set Minnesota is on getting the rushing record for Adrian Peterson. He needs 209 yards to break the record. He gained 210 in that earlier loss to Green Bay. Christian Ponder said earlier this week that he’s sure AP is more concerned with getting the win, which I’m sure is mostly true. But Peterson did say a day or two ago that he still plans on breaking that record.

Ultimately, I just don’t think there is much the Vikings can do to slow down a markedly better Packers team that isn’t resting anyone and has really gotten things rolling after a 38-10 loss to New York in Week 12, their only one since that Week 5 loss in Indianapolis.

Puff’s Pick: Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings

3 comments:

  1. tough one to call. AP 290 yards. Pack by 6.

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  2. Tough one to call. AP 287 yards. Packers by 6.

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  3. Pretty bold prediction, but if AP gains almost 300 yards, I don't see how the Pack can possibly win unless those are all 30-yard+ ripoffs. That's a lot of clock time with that kind of yardage on the ground.

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