Divisional Round Afterword: 49ers vs Packers

Colin Kaepernick threw for two touchdowns and ran for two more in his
NFL postseason debut, leading San Francisco to a 45-31 victory over
Green Bay. Photo credit to CBS News.

Colin Kaepernick had nearly identical passing numbers as Aaron Rodgers despite attempting and completing fewer passes. The difference was Kaepernick’s record-setting day on the ground. While Aaron Rodgers carried the ball three times for 28 yards, Kaepernick ran 16 times for an NFL record 181 yards. He broke Michael Vick’s record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a postseason game during the third quarter. By the final gun, he had broken Vick’s overall single-game record.

So Colin had a terrific game, but that wasn’t it for San Francisco’s offense. Frank Gore added 119 yards on the ground and a pair of receptions for 48 yards. In all, the 49ers gained 579 offensive yards, 323 of them on the ground.

The 49ers also possessed the ball for 16 more minutes than the Packers, so Green Bay’s defense was exhausted in the second half, explaining how a 24-21 halftime lead for San Francisco turned into a 45-24 lead until Green Bay scored a garbage-time touchdown with 67 seconds left.

Kaepernick showed terrific poise in the game. Two minutes in, he tried to hit Vernon Davis to the left but Sam Shields picked it off and took it 52 yards to the house. After that, Kaepernick led San Francisco on back-to-back nine-play drives, the first of which resulted in a touchdown.

For Green Bay, it was a painful reminder of their Week 1 loss to this very team. Alex Smith started that early-season matchup, but it apparently didn’t matter which quarterback started for the 49ers.

San Francisco will play in the NFC Championship for the second consecutive season. Last year they lost at home to the eventual Super Bowl Champion New York Giants. They will play in Atlanta this Sunday at 3:00 p.m. for a second chance to advance to the Super Bowl for the sixth time in franchise history.

Divisional Round Preview: 49ers vs Packers

Game 2:

Saturday, January 12, 2013

8:00pm – FOX

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

Since Kaepernick took over as starting QB in San Francisco, Randy Moss (84)
and Michael Crabtree have enjoyed advanced roles in the 49ers' offense.
Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

When I started digging deep into this matchup to come up with a prediction, I had to fight the urge to go back and look at Week 1. These are two completely different teams than they were at that time. The 49ers have a new starting quarterback and the Packers are suffering through their annual late-season injury onslaught.

I also had to avoid using last year’s playoff matchup between San Francisco and New Orleans as a basis for predicting a shootout. It has the feel of a similar matchup, but San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick is very different than with Alex Smith, and Green Bay is different than New Orleans for obvious reasons.

I’m predicting a mostly one-sided affair. The Packers will put up some points, but Colin Kaepernick has played his best games this season on the biggest stages – against Chicago on a Monday night, in New Orleans in a Sunday early evening matchup, and of course in New England on a Sunday night.

Between Kaepernick and Frank Gore – the only running back not named Adrian Peterson who topped 100 rushing yards against the Packers this season – Green Bay’s defense will likely get torched.

I’m not ready to assume Green Bay’s newfound ground attack will be available Saturday night, especially given San Francisco’s run defense. In fact, San Francisco’s defense, overall, will be very difficult for even Aaron Rodgers to pick apart.

Aldon Smith will finally have his setup man, Justin Smith, back on the line. Justin allows Aldon to get free rushing the passer and his absence has resulted in decreased production on the line from Aldon.

In my preview for the San Francisco/New Orleans game last year, I said it had the makings of an ‘Instant Classic.’ I’m not getting that vibe in this matchup.

Puff’s Pick:

Green Bay Packers – 14

San Francisco 49ers – 37

MVP: Frank Gore

Puff’s 2012 NFL Awards

Alec Baldwin returns to host the NFL Honors.

To start, I would like to congratulate Baltimore Ravens WR Anquan Boldin on winning the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. Even if you don’t know anything about Boldin outside of what he said to the media on Friday when it was announced, you can tell that the award is well deserved by him.

All other end-of-season awards will be given out at the 2^nd Annual NFL Honors the night before the Super Bowl. Here are my picks for the major awards.

Most Valuable Player – Minnesota Vikings RB, Adrian Peterson

This is an easy choice for me. The NFL seems to believe that a playoff appearance is required to name a player MVP. I likely would have chosen Adrian Peterson anyway, but it’s a no-brainer now.

Adrian Peterson came back from tearing two ligaments in his left knee last season and chased down Eric Dickerson’s rushing record, falling just 9 yards short when the final whistle sounded on the 2012 regular season. He carried his team through the second half of its season and was more valuable to his team than any other player on a playoff team this year.

Coach of the Year – Indianapolis Colts Interim HC, Bruce Arians

Many people think Leslie Frazier should win this awards, and I don’t dispute that. Frazier did a terrific job in Minnesota. But it is hard for me to give a Coach of the Year award to a coach who has the MVP on his team.

Bruce Arians wasn’t even supposed to be the head coach this season, but Chuck Pagano was unable to work for most of the season due to leukemia treatment. Arians did an amazing job in Pagano’s absence, leading a team in a rebuilding phase to a postseason birth.

Offensive Player of the Year – Green Bay Packers QB, Aaron Rodgers

Everything in me said to give this to my runner-up MVP, which was Peyton Manning. But this is about the offensive player with the best stats, the player who performed the best. I don’t like to give multiple awards to the same player, so I couldn’t give it to Adrian Peterson. Instead, I will give it to Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers led the NFL in passer rating for the second consecutive season. His TD-INT ratio was not much worse than it was last season. In addition, it was his fourth consecutive season with a completion percentage over 64% and a passer rating over 100.0.

Ever since I was old enough to really know what was happening around the NFL, it was always Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as the best two quarterbacks in the league and the guys putting their names among the all-time greats. But Aaron Rodgers is really starting to put his name in that conversation for best quarterback in the league right now. It won’t be long before he is in the ‘all-time’ conversation.

Defensive Player of the Year – Houston Texans DE, J.J. Watt

Aldon Smith was Watt’s closest competition in this race, but Watt did much more than chase Michael Strahan’s sack record – in fifteen starts this season, Watt had 20.5 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries.

Watt also had 16 passes defended, tied for 10^th in the NFL. For reference, the highest total for a linebacker belonged to London Fletcher, who tied for 38^th in the league. For a fellow defensive lineman, you have to go all the way down to 60^th, Corey Liuget of the San Diego Chargers. ‘J.J. Swat,’ as people are calling him, was outstanding this season and is my clear front-runner for this award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Washington Redskins QB, Robert Griffin III

Before you accuse me of being a homer, let me explain. This was my initial choice. Then I changed to Russell Wilson because RG3 has an unfair advantage in Alfred Morris. But how disrespectful would it be to Marshawn Lynch for me to say that? Both running backs were near the top of the league in rushing.

So I’m back to Griffin III. But now that I’ve explained why RG3, why not Wilson? It isn’t so much that I think RG3 has performed better than Wilson; I feel like he does more than Wilson and at a slightly higher level. Wilson leads receivers into open space very well, but so does RG3. Wilson is very fast and can rip off big runs when he has to; so can RG3. But Griffin III has shown that he can run the read-option at a slightly higher level, reading the defense slightly faster than Wilson can. RG3 has also has also proven to be a little more accurate throwing into tight coverage than Wilson has.

It’s a close race, and I won’t be disappointed either way because both rookies deserve this award. But RG3 is a slight front-runner in my opinion.

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Carolina Panthers LB, Luke Kuechly

Lost in the shadow of the offensive rookies are the defensive rookies, and there were plenty of good ones. But the rookie linebacker from Carolina was ahead of the rest. Kuechly led the NFL with 164 tackles in his rookie season, 103 of them solo. He also had a sack, 3 fumble recoveries, 3 interceptions, 8 passes defended (just three fewer than the leading linebacker), and 11 stuffs – stuffs are a tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage. His 11 stuffs resulted in a total loss of 30 yards.

These don’t look like rookie numbers, but they belong to one. In a season dominated by rookie quarterbacks and a pair of rookie running backs, Kuechly could be the Pepsi Max Rookie of the Year if the voters weren’t so offense-oriented.

Comeback Player of the Year – Denver Broncos QB, Peyton Manning

Adrian Peterson tore two ligaments in his left knee last December. There were questions of whether he would be back for Week 1 of the 2012 season, or if he would be back for the 2012 season at all. Would he ever run at the same level? All he did was chase Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record.

Peyton Manning had four neck surgeries in a 19-month span. Some doctors didn’t think he would play again ever. When he was cleared, would he be able to put any velocity on the ball? We knew he would still be brilliant, but would his body be anywhere near his mind? All he did was have one of the best years of his career with a brand new team, new weapons, new coaches, in altitude for half his games, and outdoors, where he had been criticized for much of his career in Indianapolis.

I think they are on fairly equal footing. Some will point to Peterson nearly breaking a record and Manning not nearly breaking a record as a reason to give it to Peterson, which is a perfectly legitimate point. But I give a little more weight to the fact that Peterson only missed one game in 2011 while Manning missed the entire season.

It’s a tough decision, but I think Manning is a little more deserving of this award.

Again, congratulations to Anquan Boldin on the Man of the Year Award, and congrats to those who wind up winning each of the awards I gave my two cents on above. Thanks for reading and be sure to tune in to The All-Sports Crew tomorrow at 7 p.m. on WMUC Sports! My previews for the Divisional Round will be published over the next two days.

Wild-Card Afterword: Packers vs Vikings

The Vikings send John Kuhn spinning through the air on his
second touchdown of the night, this one a 9-yard reception.
Photo credit to The Boston Globe.

I said in my preview that the Vikings’ playoff destiny rested more on Christian Ponder than on Adrian Peterson. Ponder did not play because of limited range-of-motion resulting from an elbow injury sustained last week. However, it was backup quarterback Joe Webb who influenced this game more than anything else.

On the first drive of the game, Webb and Peterson ran for over 20 yards each. But on the last play, Webb dropped back looking for a lane to run through rather than a receiver to throw to and delivered a poor, off-balance pass that forced Minnesota to settle for a field goal.

The Vikings’ defense stopped Green Bay on the next drive, but their offense could not take advantage, so Aaron Rodgers did. Late in the second quarter, with a 10-3 lead in tow, the Packers got the ball on their own 38-yard line with less than two minutes in the half. Consecutive completions by Rodgers of 22, 26, and 23 yards set up John Kuhn for a 3-yard touchdown run. Suddenly, a game that had a close feel through most of the half seemed to be getting out of hand at halftime.

Each team would add a touchdown in the second half, but it was clear that Joe Webb was not a passing threat. He did throw a 50-yard touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins in the fourth quarter, but he was left wide open and the pass was not particularly good. Jenkins walked up the sideline for that score.

Because of the lack of a passing game, the Packers were able to key in on the run and contained Adrian Peterson. Usually, giving up 99 rushing yards to a running back isn’t something to hang your hat on, but with Adrian Peterson that was a huge accomplishment. The Packers have only allowed two running backs all year to top 100 yards against them – Adrian Peterson twice and Frank Gore back in Week 1.

The 24-10 victory sends Green Bay to San Francisco for the divisional round and a rematch of that Week 1 loss, which was contested at Lambeau. The 49ers are very different than they were then, with Colin Kaepernick their starter rather than Alex Smith.

The Vikings’ season ends with a disappointing loss, but overall it has to feel like a successful year for Minnesota. Most analysts, myself included, picked them to finish in the basement of a tough NFC North. Adrian Peterson came back stronger than expected and the Vikings had a terrific season overall. I only wish we could have seen how the game would play out Saturday night if Christian Ponder had been able to play.

Wild-Card Preview: Packers vs Vikings

Game 2:

Saturday, January 5, 2013

8:00pm – NBC

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Christian Ponder struggled at Lambeau in Week 13,
and I don't expect much to change Saturday.
Photo credit to the Star Tribune.

In Week 17, I picked the Packers to beat the Vikings and got burned on my pick. I’m at it again this week.

Adrian Peterson ran for 199 yard in Minnesota’s Week 17 win at home against Green Bay and for 210 yards in a Week 13 losing effort on the Packers’ home turf, where Saturday’s game will be held. Adrian Peterson will not be the difference this time around, just like he wasn’t in either of the last two games.

How far this team goes rests on Christian Ponder. Peterson will run for a lot of yards, as he always does, and I don’t expect Green Bay to slow him down any more than they did in their two previous meetings. But the difference in the two games was Ponder.

In their Week 13 meeting in Green Bay, where they will play this Saturday, Ponder completed less than 50% of his passes, had one touchdown pass and threw two interceptions. Peterson had his 210 yards on 21 carries and a score of his own. But Green Bay came out on top, 23-14.

Last week couldn’t have been much more different for Minnesota. Peterson ran for 199 yards on 34 attempts and had one touchdown run, no better than in the first game. But Christian threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions.

When Ponder does not throw an interception, the Vikings are 7-1. When he doesn’t turn the ball over at all, they are 5-0. But he does turn the ball over, and he hasn’t had back-to-back games in which he hasn’t turned the ball over since wins over San Francisco and Detroit in Weeks 3 and 4.

The thing that bothers me the most about the Vikings is their track record on the road this year. They are 7-1 at home vs 3-5 as a visiting team. Their defense gives up roughly the same number of points regardless of the venue, but they score five fewer points as a visiting team.

This is the sort of opponent that Aaron Rodgers can eat alive. It won’t help that they are calling for light snow in Green Bay on Saturday. If nothing else, the high is supposed to be in the single-digits, and will be much colder by 8 p.m.

The Packers know Peterson will get yards, but on defense they will simply contain him. They will let him get the yards, but force them to go to Ponder when they get close to scoring. They did this effectively in both of the past two games. In Week 13, in Green Bay, it worked in their favor. Ponder came through last week, but I don’t trust him to play that well in consecutive games.

Puff’s Pick:

Minnesota Vikings – 17

Green Bay Packers – 31

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

2012 Week 17 Preview: Vikings vs Packers

Brett Favre's time in Minnesota ignited a lot of dislike for the
Vikings in Packers Nation. Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

This is the only game this weekend, other than the Redskins/Cowboys game (which I will preview tomorrow), that features a team in a win-and-in situation.

The Minnesota Vikings are at home for a 4:25 p.m. kickoff against the Green Bay Packers in a game that will seal their playoff fate. If the Vikings lose, it would take a miracle and a half to get them in the playoffs. A win clinches them a spot and knocks Chicago, New York, and the loser of the Skins/Cowboys game out of the playoff picture.

Adrian Peterson has been phenomenal all season. A week ago, I predicted that he would not break the all-time single-season rushing record because he had to play Houston and Green Bay. He didn’t top 100 yards against Houston, and it looks like I may have been right about him not breaking the record. But he is still my top choice for MVP if the Vikings get into the playoffs.

Side note: AP is still my top choice if the Vikings miss the playoffs, but the NFL rarely, if ever, awards the MVP to a player on a team that misses the playoffs.

Despite Peterson only gaining 86 yards, the Minnesota defense did pretty well for itself, holding the Texans to just six points in Reliant Stadium. Christian Ponder has yet to top 200 passing yards in a game since the team’s Week 11 bye – he had six such games in the first ten weeks of the season.

On Green Bay’s side, they have had three different leading rushers in the past four weeks and Aaron Rodgers has had only one game since their Week 10 bye in which he didn’t pass for at least 200 yards. He also only had one sub-200 game in the first nine weeks.

The Vikings are on a 3-game winning streak, also beating the Bears and Rams in the past three weeks. Green Bay’s winning streak is slightly longer at four games, but it includes a 23-14 Week 13 win over Minnesota and they are coming off a 55-7 romp at home against Tennessee last Sunday.

Remember what I said about how much Minnesota is playing for on Sunday? Well, don’t expect Green Bay to just let them in. Green Bay can lock up a first-round bye with a win over their NFC North rival.

The biggest question for me is how set Minnesota is on getting the rushing record for Adrian Peterson. He needs 209 yards to break the record. He gained 210 in that earlier loss to Green Bay. Christian Ponder said earlier this week that he’s sure AP is more concerned with getting the win, which I’m sure is mostly true. But Peterson did say a day or two ago that he still plans on breaking that record.

Ultimately, I just don’t think there is much the Vikings can do to slow down a markedly better Packers team that isn’t resting anyone and has really gotten things rolling after a 38-10 loss to New York in Week 12, their only one since that Week 5 loss in Indianapolis.

Puff’s Pick: Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings

Strong Start for the Pack

Jordin Sparks performed the National Anthem and the Green Bay crowd
gave us this dazzling sight. (Image courtesy of NBC and Yahoo! Sports)

Last night was a case of a blowout turning into a thriller. Green Bay took control early, as Aaron Rodgers became just the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for three touchdowns in the 1st quarter of a season opener.

As the game wore on, however, the Saints defense shut down a couple of key series and Drew Brees caught fire. Brees finished the game with three touchdown passes, no picks, and 419 passing yards, around 100 more than Rodgers, who also seemed to be unstoppable.

One of the top statistical stories for this game was having two quarterbacks both throw for 300+ yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in the same game, and in a season opener on national television, no less.

However, the one story that may be even bigger was Randall Cobb, Green Bay’s rookie wide receiver. Cobb, picked in the second round out of Kentucky, is the first person born in the 1990s to play in the NFL, and he made a name for himself last night. He began his career with a 32-yard touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers in the 1st quarter, pushing the Packers’ advantage to 21-7. Then, in the 3rd quarter, Cobb struck again, taking a kickoff out from eight yards deep in his end zone, being flipped onto his side and still staying on his feet at around the 22-yard line, then streaking down the field for an NFL record-tying 108-yard kickoff return touchdown.

That return evened the playing field just a quarter after Darren Sproles returned a Tim Masthay punt 72 yards to make it a 21-17 game.

Leading 35-27 early in the final quarter of play, the Packers finished a 12-play, 93-yard drive with Rodgers sneaking the ball into the belly of fullback John Kuhn who easily stepped into the end zone to extend Green Bay’s lead.

Drew Brees only seemed to play better during the final quarter, however, leading a quick 12-play touchdown drive that took just 3:20 off the game clock. A three-and-out forced by the Saints defense (after a failed onside kick) gave the Saints one final chance. Brees drove Green Bay’s defense back very efficiently during his final drive. He had just 1:08 to work with and no timeouts.

With just a few second left on the clock and the ball nine yards out of the end zone, Brees tried to get the ball in to Darren Sproles, but a nice defensive play by A.J. Hawk ended it…or so it appeared. On the replay, it appeared that the play could have been called either way, but pass interference was called on Hawk, who had jumped to knock down the pass and landed on Sproles just after tipping the pass down.

The Saints got an untimed play from the 1 and chose to give the ball to rookie Mark Ingram, the former Heisman winner out of Alabama. But the Packers’ defensive line took out the legs of the Saints’ offensive line and their linebackers took down Ingram before he could get anywhere near the goal line.

Final Score:

New Orleans – 34
Green Bay – 42

You can see my predictions for the rest of the weekend by clicking the link at the end of this post. Come back Monday for my thoughts on some key games from Sunday’s action and then on Tuesday for my post on the Monday Night games.

Puff's Picks: Week 1 Predictions