Eric’s Picks, Conference Championships

Eric Meyer

We’re down to our final four. Only one new face is still in the hunt for a Super Bowl, while three others are looking for additional jewelry to add to their stashes. Some could argue that this is the “forgone conclusion” weekend, but that’s insulting to the two road teams who have made it this far.

It should be an exciting pair of games as established veterans square off against third-year, up-and-coming quarterbacks who are trying to build their own hall-of-fame legacies. Let’s get to it.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, January 18, 3:05pm – FOX

The Packers got shellacked last time they went up to Seattle to wrangle with the defending championships, 36-16. Of course, that was Week 1. We saw last year that early season routs aren’t a good indicator of outcomes in January.

Last season, the San Francisco 49ers got thumped in Seattle in a Sunday Night bout in Week 2. They responded by playing a tight game in the NFC Championship and coming within one Richard Sherman “best corner in the game” play (and later rant) from heading to their second straight Super Bowl. It should be pretty obvious not to write off the Packers.

Here’s another oft-ignored point regarding Seattle: Stanton, Kaepernick, Sanchez, Kaepernick, Lindley, Hill and Newton. These are the seven quarterbacks that Seattle has faced since their loss to the Chiefs, during their supposed “rejuvenation.” None of those guys are elite. Over half of those guys aren’t even legitimate starting quarterbacks.

I have no doubt that Seattle’s defense has improved to levels similar to last season, but some people are failing to take the competition into consideration. Aaron Rodgers is more valuable than those six guys combines. He’s going to make some plays. I’m grabbing these points and running.

I think Seattle wins this game. Russell Wilson is one of the most hotly debated quarterbacks in the league. Some people thing he’s a game manager who rides his run game and defense to wins. I’m not in that camp. Wilson is one of the best playmakers in the NFL. He turns losing plays into big gains. He bails out his line when protection breaks down by scrambling and then making smart decisions outside of the pocket.

Wilson can hit you with absolute backbreaking plays just when you think you’ve turned the tide. Seattle’s defense is great and will keep the score relatively low, but Wilson will be the difference in this game. He’ll be heading to his second straight Super Bowl, where he and his Hawks will be favored to repeat.

Eric’s Pick: Green Bay 24, Seattle 28

Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, January 18, 6:40pm – CBS

This is an interesting matchup. Andrew Luck vanquished his predecessor last week and now he has an opportunity to eliminate his predecessor’s longtime nemesis. Unfortunately, Luck has had less success than Manning ever had against the New England Patriots.

The Colts put on a quality performance against Denver last week. They shut down the Broncos’ passing attack and put the onus on a washed-up Peyton Manning to beat them deep. He failed and the Colts came away with the win. It’s a big confidence booster and I’m sure the Colts will feed off of that heading to Foxboro.

But let’s be real here. Andrew Luck played pretty well. Not great. Not badly. He was okay. He wasn’t superman. He didn’t put the team on his back. He didn’t play flawless football. He threw two picks that turned out to be harmless, but very easily could’ve hurt his team.

On defense, the Colts played, again, pretty well. Vontae Davis played the game of his life. They took advantage of Manning’s noodle arm. What they didn’t do was stop the run. They still allowed C.J. Anderson to get 4.4 yards per carry. They failed to tackle him on Denver’s not-so-season saving drive where Anderson was contacted five yards behind the line of scrimmage and slipped three Colts defenders for a first down conversion on 4th & 1.

There are still holes on this Colts team. The Patriots have a much tougher team than Denver, and a much better quarterback at the moment. New England has hammered the Colts with their rushing attack each of the last two times they’ve met. They’ve been able to do pretty much whatever they want at the line of scrimmage. And if the Colts decide to stack the box to stop the run, they’ll just have to deal with a guy named Tom Brady.

Andrew Luck will have his moments, but ultimately New England will prevail and play for their fourth Super Bowl title.

Eric’s Pick: Indianapolis 24, New England 38

Puff’s Picks, Conference Championships

Cory Puffett

After a perfect opening weekend and a 6-0 start to my playoff predictions, my hope for a Joe Flacco postseason (11-0 prediction record) was dashed when the Cowboys and Broncos both lost last Sunday.

Now I’ll try and build on my 6-2 start to the playoffs with the games on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, January 18, 3:05pm – FOX

This has definitely been the more difficult of the two game for me to make up my mind about. The obvious choice is the Seahawks. They have almost everything going for them.

They have the best home field advantage in the NFL. They won the Week 1 meeting between the two teams, and teams in Seattle’s position this Sunday are 6-0 historically. The Seahawks have Beastmode and the Legion of Boom.

So why am I so hesitant to pull the trigger on them? The simple answer is Aaron Rodgers, but the real answer goes beyond him.

Aaron Rodgers has one of the best young running backs in the league with him. If there was anything the Packers were saving him for when they were giving the reps Eddie Lacy deserved to James Starks early in the season, it would be for this moment.

The receiving corps Rodgers has is maybe the deepest in the league. He has one of the best 1-2 combos in Nelson and Cobb and we saw last week against Dallas that Rodgers has no problems getting the ball to the wide receivers and tight ends buried on the Green Bay depth chart.

We all know about Seattle, so I’m not going to go into detail about them. They struggled a bit out of the gate, but they’re back to the same form they were last postseason. This is, again, a legit championship contender. But of the three other teams left, Green Bay has the best tools with which to win in Seattle. The other two teams are just lucky they don’t have to go to CenturyLink Field.

The reason I’m sticking with the Seahawks this weekend is because of Mike McCarthy. He’s too unpredictable. Will he take advantage of the fact that Eddie Lacy is not as banged up as most running backs would be at this point in the season? Will he use Lacy to protect his quarterback who, while still playing like the best in the league, is clearly not 100-percent?

I’d like to think that he will, but McCarthy doesn’t always do the intelligent thing. He’s an overrated coach who rode his star quarterback’s coattails to a Super Bowl title and has botched every opportunity to return since then.

Puff’s Pick: Seahawks over Packers, 34-28

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Sunday, January 18, 6:40pm – CBS

No trouble here, I’m taking the Patriots all the way. I expected the Ravens to give them some trouble, but ultimate I went with New England last week for reasons I won’t repeat here but you’re more than welcome to go back and refer to last week’s prediction post.

Now that they shook out the rust from the week off, New England should be ready to annihilate Andrew Luck and the Colts. Peyton Manning couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his deep passes last week. I expected the run game to come through for the Broncos, which was the only reason I picked them to win. We’d already seen Manning was falling apart.

The Colts managed to contain C.J. Anderson and so were able to win the football game. But this week they have to go up against a quarterback who suddenly looks to be aging much slower than the Sherriff.

Tom Brady doesn’t have the deep receiving corps that Manning has, but at this point in time he has the better arm. More importantly, he’s created depth by finally getting on the same page with Danny Amendola. Factor in the depth in the backfield and the great secondary, and I don’t see anyway New England loses at home unless Bill Belichick goes senile and decides he’d have a better chance with Jimmy Garoppolo under center and Michael Hoomanawanui as the play caller. (Yeah, I just wanted to say Hoomanawanui. What a name.)

Puff’s Pick: Patriots over Colts, 35-10

Divisional Round Afterword, Part II

Aaron Rodgers fought through an injured calf to deliver a terrific
divisional round performance in Sunday's win over Dallas.

Cory Puffett

Dallas at Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers will finish the season either next week in Seattle or two weeks later in Arizona. In any case, he ends the year without a home interception for the second season in a row.

After an excellent early drive by the Packers, largely on the shoulders of Eddie Lacy, the Packers let their lead slip away as the Cowboys went on two straight touchdown drives and held the lead until the fourth quarter.

Both teams played excellent games. The time of possession was virtually identical. Aaron Rodgers and DeMarco Murray each lost one fumble. The Packers were a little sloppy with the penalties, but otherwise this was everything a fan could’ve wanted from a divisional playoff game.

The play that will be talked about ad nauseam is the overturned 4th down reception by Dez Bryant near the goal line. Every time I see the replay my opinion changes. At one glance it looks like the Calvin Johnson rule. The next glance makes it look like Dez took three steps (while falling) and made a football move to reach the ball out to the goal line before the ball hit the ground and momentarily came loose.

The play was called a completed catch on the field and overturned on a challenge by Mike McCarthy, who had not won a challenge all season. It’s a very close play and I still feel that the right call would have been to stick with the call on the field. The officials felt differently.

In any case, the Packers will travel to Seattle for the NFC Championship game next Sunday. It will be their first appearance in the league semifinal since 2010.

Vontae Davis narrowly missed this interception in the end zone, but he
deflected three passes and helped Indy stifle Denver's offense.

Indianapolis at Denver

The Broncos got beat for a variety of reasons. Firstly, they came out with a very poor game plan. It looked eerily similar to the one they used in a losing effort in last year’s Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks – a lot of screens and short passes with very few shots down the field.

Because everything was short, the Colts had no trouble containing C.J. Anderson for most of the first half.

A second reason for the loss was Denver’s inability to adjust at halftime. They came out of the break trying and failing to make the same things work that the Colts had shut down with so much ease early in the game.

Sure the receivers didn’t play that great and Demaryius Thomas made some inexcusable drops on two screen plays in particular, but the third and most important reason for the loss was Peyton Manning.

You all know I hate to throw him under the bus for anything, but he played a very poor game Sunday evening. He is as close to an offensive coordinator as any player has been in the last fifty years in the NFL, so it is as much his responsibility to adjust the game plan to fit various situations as it is his coaches’ jobs. The few times he did try and stretch the field, he overthrew his receivers, giving the Colts even more reason to focus their attention within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

The Colts deserve all the praise they’ll get this week because they did play a very sound game, especially defensively. But keep in mind that a big part of that was Denver’s inability to make Indianapolis’s job challenging.

The Colts will travel to Foxboro to play the Patriots next Sunday and will need another big game from their defense to knock off the AFC’s top seed to earn a Super Bowl birth.

Divisional Round Afterword, Part I

Tom Brady broke Joe Montana's record for postseason touchdown
passes with the 46th of his career Saturday evening against Baltimore.

Cory Puffett

Baltimore at New England

Joe Flacco continued his playoff hot streak by throwing two touchdown passes in the first quarter Saturday evening. After the Patriots erased the 14-point deficit, Flacco hooked up with Owen Daniels for his third touchdown pass of the game with ten seconds left in the first half.

The Patriots would not lose a home playoff game to the Ravens for the third time in the last five years, though. They let the Ravens build their lead back to 14 early in the second half but again erased that deficit.

Flacco had played a mostly perfect game, but with less than two minutes to play and trailing by four, he made a very poor throw and Duron Harmon made the interception.

The Ravens did get one last shot at the end zone with four seconds left, but Flacco’s Hail Mary was not answered.

The Patriots are the first team in NFL history to twice trail by 14 points and still win a playoff game.

With a win to clinch a Super Bowl birth next week, Bill Belichick would break Tom Landry’s record for postseason wins by a head coach. He’ll be watching tomorrow’s Denver/Indianapolis game to prepare for that opportunity.

Doug Baldwin was the first of four Seahawks to reach the end zone
Sunday night in a 31-17 divisional round win over the Carolina Panthers.

Carolina at Seattle

The late game was an endurance race for the ages. A great defensive battle took center stage in the first quarter half as Carolina’s defense did an excellent job of conserving their energy by getting off the field quickly by the Seahawks, as usual, used their home crowd to help them do the same.

The Seahawks got on the scoreboard first and the two teams exchanged blows on the way to a 14-10 Seattle lead at halftime.

Both defenses used the break to rest again and the third quarter brought no scoring as neither team could break through until a 12-play drive by the Seahawks at the end of the quarter led to a field goal at the start of the fourth.

Seattle won the enduring race as Carolina’s defense finally wore down. A 90-yard interception return by Kam Chancellor with six minutes left put the nail in the Panthers’ coffin.

Kelvin Benjamin had a very impressive day against the legion of boom, catching 7 passes for 75 yards and two scores. Overall, Carolina played a very good game. Despite the margin of victory, they were not an easy team to put away for the defending Super Bowl champions.

Seattle will host the winner of Sunday’s game between the Cowboys and Packers next Sunday.

2014 NFL Predictions, Divisional Round

Cory managed a perfect 4-0 record in round one of the playoffs. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t make much of a dent in the fields’ lead on him as everyone else went 3-1.

Let’s get to this week’s picks. Bonus games, in bold, are worth three points. All others are worth two points.

Day/Time	Game	CORY PUFFETT	ERIC MEYER	SASWAT MISRA
Jan. 10 – 4:35pm	BAL at NE	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Jan. 10 – 8:15pm	CAR at SEA	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Jan. 11 – 1:05pm	DAL at GB	Cowboys	Packers	Packers
Jan. 11 – 4:40pm	IND at DEN	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos

Along with the three of us, we’ll have Sean Kennedy, Evan Ash and Andrew Perez making picks every week as well, and this year we’ll track each of their picks right here, as well.

Day/Time	Game	SEAN KENNEDY	EVAN ASH	ANDREW PEREZ
Jan. 10 – 4:35pm	BAL at NE	Ravens	Ravens	Patriots
Jan. 10 – 8:15pm	CAR at SEA	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Jan. 11 – 1:05pm	DAL at GB	Cowboys	Packers	Cowboys
Jan. 11 – 4:40pm	IND at DEN	Broncos	Broncos	Colts

Finally, this last table will keep everyone in the loop on everyone’s standing throughout the season.

	CORY	ERIC	SASWAT	SEAN	EVAN	DREW
Division Record	2-2	3-1	3-1	1-3	2-2	3-1
Division Points	5	8	8	2	5	7
Total Record	166-97-1	179-84-1	175-88-1	166-97-1	175-88-1	168-95-1
Total Points	212.5	233	228.5	210	225	219

Keep an eye out for our predictions podcasts. Hopefully we’ll be able to put one out every Saturday throughout the season. If we aren’t able to get one out, you can at least see all of our predictions right here, every week on Puff on the NFL.

Eric’s Picks, Divisional Round

Eric Meyer

Goodbye, play-in games, hello real playoffs! We finally have the best teams going at it as the NFL hits its apex for the season. The divisional round is the marquee football experience, with four games over two days that decide who will get to play for conference titles and a trip to the Super Bowl. There are lots of high spreads this week, so let’s get to it.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) at New England Patriots

Saturday, January 10, 4:35pm – NBC

I wrote a piece earlier this week discussing the narrative vs. reality, and I think it’s more applicable for this matchup. All week you’ll hear from Ravens fans, the media, and even Patriots fans that Joe Flacco has Tom Brady’s number (which is weird because Tom Brady doesn’t play defense).

In three playoff matchups during the Flacco era, the Ravens have outplayed New England in three of them and won two out of three, all in Foxboro. So what’s wrong with thinking that the Ravens will go and do it again? Oh, just the small detail of these being completely different teams.

The Ravens of 2012 had Ed Reed. They had Ray Lewis and Paul Kruger. They also had a fellow named Anquan Boldin and another guy named Rice. Meanwhile, the Patriots have completely turned their defense around. Their secondary is phenomenal and their linebackers have come into form as well.

For the first time in this new “rivalry,” the Patriots are coming into the matchup with a better defense than Baltimore. They also have a stronger offense, even with significant improvements from the Ravens this season.

I think the Ravens can win this game. I’ll even say that they’re the only team in the AFC that has a shot at beating New England in Foxboro, but not because of what they’ve done before. They have the front seven to make the Patriots one-dimensional and the pass rushers to get Brady off the spot.

That being said, the Ravens’ secondary is still a major problem and they have no answer for Gronkowski. They’ll also have a much more difficult time throwing downfield and drawing flags with New England’s tough secondary, which is a must if they’re going to be successful. It’ll be a hard-fought battle, but I think New England comes out on top.

Eric’s Pick: Baltimore 17, New England 27

Carolina Panthers (+11) at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, January 10, 8:15pm – FOX

Holy cow, what a big spread! Seattle is an 11-point favorite against a team that it only beat 13-9 in the regular season? Who would take Seattle to cover that spread?!

I would.

Carolina played the Seahawks close at home last year. They did the same this year. Now they’re going on the road. Their five-game winning streak is a mirage. They beat up four straight bad teams and then Ryan Lindley. We’re talking about the defending Super Bowl Championship here, at home, in full flight defensively.

Cam Newton will struggle just like he did against Arizona, but this time his defense won’t be able to bail him out against a much better playmaker at the QB position.

I’ve always believed that, no matter what the spread is, only take the points if you think the underdog has a legitimate chance of winning the game. I can’t say that about the Panthers right now. I think Seattle wins this on in a romp.

Eric’s Pick: Carolina 13, Seattle 34

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 11, 1:05pm – FOX

This is a brutal matchup to pick. Dallas went 8-0 on the road while Green Bay was perfect at home. It’s a real clash of the titans. Aaron Rodgers is a go on Sunday, but a slight tear in his calf will limit one of his best assets: his ability to pass outside the pocket.

This isn’t all doom and gloom, of course. Rodgers is an excellent pocket passer in his own right and can definitely win if the majority of his passes come between the tackles. But what looked like a slam-dunk pick has been made much tougher with the news of Rodgers’s ailment.

I’m going to stick with Green Bay in this game. Dallas’s offense is potent, but the Packer defense doesn’t get enough credit for its ability to make big plays, especially at home. The Cowboys will compete and I expect Romo to play well, but I still think Rodgers is able to pick apart that Dallas defense enough to keep the game in favor of the Packers.

Eric’s Pick: Dallas 27, Green Bay 35

Indianapolis Colts (+7) at Denver Broncos

Sunday, January 11, 4:40pm – CBS

When I saw the line for this game, I knew immediately that I was taking the points. Peyton Manning has looked like a complete shell of himself out there while Andrew Luck continues to look as rugged as ever.

I don’t think Indianapolis is getting the credit it deserves going into this matchup, as it seems most people have written this game off as a no-brainer. Denver is going to win.

I’m very tempted to go the opposite direction. The Broncos looked pretty bad against quality competition down the stretch of this season. They got blown out by New England and got handled by Cincinnati despite the Bengals’ best efforts to give the game away.

With all that said, I can’t pick the Colts to win this one outright. The Broncos are relying on their rushing attack more in lieu of Manning’s struggles, and the Colts’ run defense is non-existent. Indianapolis also has no running game, which could lead to trouble with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware pining their ears back.

Denver is overall the better team, and playing at home. Even with Luck’s game and Manning’s decline, the battle of the horses goes to the Broncos.

Eric’s Pick: Indianapolis 27, Denver 31