The 2011 NFL Season has been a treat. The summer lock out seems like ages ago after the regular season held perhaps more excitement than any other in recent memory. With no training camp, Cam Newton came in and played shockingly well in Carolina on his way to setting the all-time record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a single season. The Packers nearly went undefeated until a Romeo Crennel coached Chiefs knocked them off; then their playoff run ended before it started. And, of course, no recap of the 2011 season would be complete without mentioning Dan Marino’s record of more than a quarter century being broken by Drew Brees (and by Tom Brady).
The postseason has been no different. With the exception of the Atlanta Falcons (and the Broncos in the divisional round), each team has played at a level to make every game competitive and exciting. When one team excelled, their opponent stepped up to plate and hit it out of the park, too. When other teams underperformed, so did their opponent so those game could go down to the wire as well.
Unfortunately I only got to watch parts of the wild-card games live, so I missed out on the true excitement from Tim Tebow’s overtime win, T.J. Yates’s winning the duel of rookie quarterbacks against Cincinnati, and Drew Brees out-Breesing Matt Stafford.
The only game I predicted incorrectly in the divisional round was my prediction that the Saints would knock off the 49ers in an instant classic. I like to give myself half-credit for predicting a truly exciting game, but the 49ers took care of business and Alex Smith finally justified that #1 draft pick in 2005. I never expected the Broncos to be close, but what the Patriots did to Tebow was just wrong. These playoffs could have ranked among the best ever if we had even had a chance of another edition of Tebow Time.
The Giants knocked off the Packers, and I have my gut to thank for that correct prediction. I’ve ignored my gut before, when it told me to predict my Terps to win the National Championship in 2002 before the season began and when it told me to pick the Giants over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. I went with it this time and it paid off.
The Texans receivers struggled against Baltimore, but then Yates wasn’t fantastic either. But that was still a pretty exciting game as the Ravens squeaked by with yet another postseason win for Joe Flacco and Ray Rice.
Jim Harbaugh has had a fantastic season and is absolutely deserving of Coach of the Year honors, but rookie coaches don’t usually have the kind of success he’s had, and Giants put a stop to it last weekend. I don’t know what it is with New York, but December and January have ‘Giants’ written all over them. The Manning family has their 4th Super Bowl appearance in six seasons, and a chance for ring number three.
Meanwhile, Tom Brady had a lackluster performance against Baltimore, but the Ravens failed to capitalize for most of the game. Then, two jaw-dropping moments ended the game as a potential game-winning touchdown pass by Joe Flacco was dropped in the end zone just before Lee Evans got his second foot down. Then Billy Cundiff rushed onto the field and more than missed the game-tying field goal. We were denied a second overtime conference championship game and were awarded a rematch of the Super Bowl XLII.
This past weekend I turned on the Pro Bowl for a little while, but the uninspired play early in the game quickly turned me off and reminded me why nobody watches it. I got to see some fantastic replays after the game, such as Brandon Marshall’s 3rd of four touchdown receptions when it bounced off two defenders, off his own knee, and into his hands while on the ground in the end zone.
Now we have just one game left. I watched a 9-minute video of Eli Manning speaking to reporters yesterday and look forward to a chance to see more as videos from today’s Media Day as the week progresses. As those of you who read my blog last year know, I never make my Super Bowl prediction until I use Madden the morning of the game, and I have only been wrong twice in the past. In fact, last year I correctly predicted the Packers final score and was only five points off for the Steelers.
Of course, it should be noted that the two Super Bowls I have incorrectly predicted both involved the Giants. I picked the Giants to beat the Ravens in the first Super Bowl I ever predicted using this method and my game of Madden predicted the Patriots to beat the Giants in 2007, leading to me ignoring my gut as I mentioned before.
My point in bringing that up is that though I am 9-2 in Super Bowl predictions, I am 0-2 when the Giants are involved. However, I finally found a real good custom difficulty setting that I’ve been playing with this season and have it pretty much perfect, so I’ll be changing the parameters of the game slightly from previous predictions and hopefully that will lead to a more accurate result this time around.
If I don’t post again until the morning of the Super Bowl, be sure to either come directly here for that prediction or ‘like’ Puff on the NFL on Facebook to see when that post goes up. Enjoy Super Bowl week and thanks for reading!
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Championship Sunday 2012, Pt. II
With the four remaining teams, this weekend’s games could be as exciting as the Super Bowl itself. Without any ado, let’s get to the preview.
Game 2:
Sunday, January 22, 2012
6:30pm – FOX
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
I am having a really hard time breaking down this game, but I refuse to use my Super Bowl prediction method on a conference championship game to get my prediction.
The Giants had a terrible rushing game against Green Bay to say the least. It will only be worse this weekend against the best rushing defense in the NFL, and maybe the best overall in the NFL this season. Eli Manning was able to pick apart the Packers, but don’t expect San Francisco to be so easy to take to slaughter.
Two calls really changed the dynamic of that Giants/Packers game. Two calls that should not have been made (a fumble early and a roughing the passer late) that allowed the Packers to continue dead drives, both of which ended up in the end zone. That game really should have been a bigger blowout than it was. The Packers should consider themselves lucky, and send some ‘thank you’ notes to the officials for allowing them to score double digits. The Giants might have even broken into the 40s had it not been for those two calls. (There was one bad call in favor of the Giants, but it was insignificant to the outcome of the game).
Meanwhile, the 49ers are on a huge high coming off a thriller against the Saints. And now they get to stay at home for one more week. You better believe Tom Coughlin is not going to be playing man coverage on Vernon Davis this weekend. He’ll be mixing zone and double-teams on him most of the night. The only way Davis will be heavily involved is in the short passing game and as a blocker.
Will Alex Smith be able to lead the offense so efficiently if Davis is indeed limited so severely in this game? It is possible, but only if their ground game can get good footing early. The Giants have a knack for showing up in January, and as was said in an episode of NFLNetwork’s America’s Game, Eli is the king of January. Eli has no control over the defense, but when Eli has a good game, it seems to carry over to the other side of the ball.
Alex Smith has finally earned my respect as a top overall draft pick, but can he win in another shootout? I highly doubt it. The 49ers are a great team right now, but they showed late in that Saint’s game that they can get a little sloppy. And if they make the same mistakes, Eli will take advantage.
In my mind, the Giants have slightly more room for error. The 49ers capitalized on some early Saints mistakes, but as New Orleans continued to make huge mistakes, San Francisco slowly stopped making the most of those opportunities and allowed the Saints back in the game. If the Giants play mistake free football, they should run away with it. If they limit their mistakes, the game could be close, but as I said, they have a small window for error that I don’t think the 49ers have.
In the regular season meeting between these two teams, the 49ers came out on top, 27-20. Eli Manning converted two 4th down plays in the final minutes of the game before having a pass batted down at the line on a 4th and 2 in the red zone with the game nearing it’s end. 2 interceptions were likely the biggest downfall for Eli in that game. But he has been playing more and more mistake free every week, and as I said already, he rules in January.
Ultimately, I think we’re in for a Harbaugh-less Super Bowl. I’ve never had a week where I didn’t get at least one game right (other than 2 Super Bowls), but then, there is a first time for everything. A Thanksgiving night rematch certainly is in the cards.
My pick:
New York beats San Francisco, 24-20
Game 2:
Sunday, January 22, 2012
6:30pm – FOX
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
I am having a really hard time breaking down this game, but I refuse to use my Super Bowl prediction method on a conference championship game to get my prediction.
The Giants had a terrible rushing game against Green Bay to say the least. It will only be worse this weekend against the best rushing defense in the NFL, and maybe the best overall in the NFL this season. Eli Manning was able to pick apart the Packers, but don’t expect San Francisco to be so easy to take to slaughter.
Two calls really changed the dynamic of that Giants/Packers game. Two calls that should not have been made (a fumble early and a roughing the passer late) that allowed the Packers to continue dead drives, both of which ended up in the end zone. That game really should have been a bigger blowout than it was. The Packers should consider themselves lucky, and send some ‘thank you’ notes to the officials for allowing them to score double digits. The Giants might have even broken into the 40s had it not been for those two calls. (There was one bad call in favor of the Giants, but it was insignificant to the outcome of the game).
Meanwhile, the 49ers are on a huge high coming off a thriller against the Saints. And now they get to stay at home for one more week. You better believe Tom Coughlin is not going to be playing man coverage on Vernon Davis this weekend. He’ll be mixing zone and double-teams on him most of the night. The only way Davis will be heavily involved is in the short passing game and as a blocker.
Will Alex Smith be able to lead the offense so efficiently if Davis is indeed limited so severely in this game? It is possible, but only if their ground game can get good footing early. The Giants have a knack for showing up in January, and as was said in an episode of NFLNetwork’s America’s Game, Eli is the king of January. Eli has no control over the defense, but when Eli has a good game, it seems to carry over to the other side of the ball.
Alex Smith has finally earned my respect as a top overall draft pick, but can he win in another shootout? I highly doubt it. The 49ers are a great team right now, but they showed late in that Saint’s game that they can get a little sloppy. And if they make the same mistakes, Eli will take advantage.
In my mind, the Giants have slightly more room for error. The 49ers capitalized on some early Saints mistakes, but as New Orleans continued to make huge mistakes, San Francisco slowly stopped making the most of those opportunities and allowed the Saints back in the game. If the Giants play mistake free football, they should run away with it. If they limit their mistakes, the game could be close, but as I said, they have a small window for error that I don’t think the 49ers have.
In the regular season meeting between these two teams, the 49ers came out on top, 27-20. Eli Manning converted two 4th down plays in the final minutes of the game before having a pass batted down at the line on a 4th and 2 in the red zone with the game nearing it’s end. 2 interceptions were likely the biggest downfall for Eli in that game. But he has been playing more and more mistake free every week, and as I said already, he rules in January.
Ultimately, I think we’re in for a Harbaugh-less Super Bowl. I’ve never had a week where I didn’t get at least one game right (other than 2 Super Bowls), but then, there is a first time for everything. A Thanksgiving night rematch certainly is in the cards.
My pick:
New York beats San Francisco, 24-20
Championship Sunday 2012, Pt. I
With the four remaining teams, this weekend’s games could be as exciting as the Super Bowl itself. Without any ado, let’s get to the preview.
Game 1:
Sunday, January 22, 2012
3:00pm – CBS
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
I really haven’t gotten a chance to watch as much coverage of either conference championship game as I would have liked to this week. However, early in the week a friend of mine, a Ravens fan, said something that surprised me slightly, though once I thought about it, it made sense. He told me the Patriots had not beaten a winning team all season. Though with a quick check of the standings I found that to be accurate, I decided to do a bit more digging, just for arguments sake.
This regular season, the Patriots played just two teams who finished with winning records, the Giants and the Steelers, losing to them in consecutive weeks in the middle of the season. Their other loss came to the 6-10 Bills early in the season. All 13 wins came against teams who finished the season with 8 or fewer wins. However, in games against teams who had winning records coming into the matchup, they were 4-1 (5-1 if you count their win against the 9-8 Broncos last weekend). While three of those games may be considered mute because they were in the first 5 weeks of the season, New England was 2-0 against such teams after week 8 (the Jets were 5-3 and the Broncos were 8-5 coming into their games against the Patriots in weeks 10 and 15 respectively).
Of course, as I said this was all just for arguments sake, none of this ultimately has any affect on how this game will be played. Both teams are in for a real challenge.
The Broncos defense laid an egg on Saturday, there’s no way around it. All season, Tebow was gaining headlines for his late-game comebacks, but it was the defense giving him enough opportunities to orchestrate those drives. Though New England looked very crisp on offense, I refuse to believe that they performed that well against a Denver defense that was up for the task, especially considering the Bronco’s defense did pretty decently against Brady in their regular season meeting.
The only issue for the Patriots will be their defense. The Ravens faced one of the better defenses in the league last weekend, and though they didn’t exactly take care of business, going from facing the Texans to the 31st ranked defense during the regular season could make a big difference.
Surprisingly, it’s the Raven’s defense I’m most concerned about. It’s a great unit, yes, and Ed Reed is expected to be good to go after a very scary late-game play that looked much worse than it turned out to be. But Tom Brady can pick about any defense when he’s at the top of his game, and good performance or not for the Broncos, he looked very on top of his game on Saturday. If the Ravens can’t put some serious points on the board and put the Patriots in a deep hole heading in the 4th quarter on Sunday, I have little doubt that Brady will put something together with the weapons he has.
The Ravens will have their hands full with Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker. Expect Branch to get some looks with the other three receiving most of the focus. And I fully expect Green-Ellis to be splitting playing time pretty evenly with Danny Woodhead; Belichick would be silly not to give Woodhead significant playing time in this matchup.
But, it is fully possible that if it turns into a shootout, the Ravens can keep up. The Patriots passing defense is not nearly as bad as Green Bay’s was, but Ray Rice will either have a field day, or at the very least do well enough to open things up for the pass to be successful. As long as Joe Flacco is up to winning a road playoff game for the fourth consecutive season, the Ravens have a great chance of winning this game.
Unfortunately, I still don’t fully trust Joe Flacco and I fully expect him to be the deciding factor. The Patriots are 12-3 all time at home during the postseason. They were 11-1, then lost to the Ravens and Jets in consecutive seasons. They are coming off a big win and I don’t expect them to start another slide so soon. I don’t have enough confidence in Flacco and I have a ton in Brady.
My pick:
New England beats Baltimore, 38-27
Game 1:
Sunday, January 22, 2012
3:00pm – CBS
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
I really haven’t gotten a chance to watch as much coverage of either conference championship game as I would have liked to this week. However, early in the week a friend of mine, a Ravens fan, said something that surprised me slightly, though once I thought about it, it made sense. He told me the Patriots had not beaten a winning team all season. Though with a quick check of the standings I found that to be accurate, I decided to do a bit more digging, just for arguments sake.
This regular season, the Patriots played just two teams who finished with winning records, the Giants and the Steelers, losing to them in consecutive weeks in the middle of the season. Their other loss came to the 6-10 Bills early in the season. All 13 wins came against teams who finished the season with 8 or fewer wins. However, in games against teams who had winning records coming into the matchup, they were 4-1 (5-1 if you count their win against the 9-8 Broncos last weekend). While three of those games may be considered mute because they were in the first 5 weeks of the season, New England was 2-0 against such teams after week 8 (the Jets were 5-3 and the Broncos were 8-5 coming into their games against the Patriots in weeks 10 and 15 respectively).
Of course, as I said this was all just for arguments sake, none of this ultimately has any affect on how this game will be played. Both teams are in for a real challenge.
The Broncos defense laid an egg on Saturday, there’s no way around it. All season, Tebow was gaining headlines for his late-game comebacks, but it was the defense giving him enough opportunities to orchestrate those drives. Though New England looked very crisp on offense, I refuse to believe that they performed that well against a Denver defense that was up for the task, especially considering the Bronco’s defense did pretty decently against Brady in their regular season meeting.
The only issue for the Patriots will be their defense. The Ravens faced one of the better defenses in the league last weekend, and though they didn’t exactly take care of business, going from facing the Texans to the 31st ranked defense during the regular season could make a big difference.
Surprisingly, it’s the Raven’s defense I’m most concerned about. It’s a great unit, yes, and Ed Reed is expected to be good to go after a very scary late-game play that looked much worse than it turned out to be. But Tom Brady can pick about any defense when he’s at the top of his game, and good performance or not for the Broncos, he looked very on top of his game on Saturday. If the Ravens can’t put some serious points on the board and put the Patriots in a deep hole heading in the 4th quarter on Sunday, I have little doubt that Brady will put something together with the weapons he has.
The Ravens will have their hands full with Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker. Expect Branch to get some looks with the other three receiving most of the focus. And I fully expect Green-Ellis to be splitting playing time pretty evenly with Danny Woodhead; Belichick would be silly not to give Woodhead significant playing time in this matchup.
But, it is fully possible that if it turns into a shootout, the Ravens can keep up. The Patriots passing defense is not nearly as bad as Green Bay’s was, but Ray Rice will either have a field day, or at the very least do well enough to open things up for the pass to be successful. As long as Joe Flacco is up to winning a road playoff game for the fourth consecutive season, the Ravens have a great chance of winning this game.
Unfortunately, I still don’t fully trust Joe Flacco and I fully expect him to be the deciding factor. The Patriots are 12-3 all time at home during the postseason. They were 11-1, then lost to the Ravens and Jets in consecutive seasons. They are coming off a big win and I don’t expect them to start another slide so soon. I don’t have enough confidence in Flacco and I have a ton in Brady.
My pick:
New England beats Baltimore, 38-27
Friday, January 13, 2012
Divisional Round 2012, Part IV
A crazy wild-card weekend is in the books and eight teams now remain in the quest for the Lombardi trophy. This weekend features some matchups that, mostly, appear to be skewed heavily in favor of one team, but may be closer than expected.
Game 4:
Sunday, January 15, 2012
4:30pm – FOX
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
It would be way too easy to just go and say the Packers will win this game. But I go back to 2007 and I’m sensing some Déjà vu, and I’m not talking about the Giants knocking off the Packers in the NFC Championship.
Let’s go back to the final game of the regular season in 2007. In this game, Tom Brady set the all-time record for touchdown passes in a season at 50, and on the same play Randy Moss broke Jerry Rice’s touchdown receptions record with his 23rd of the year.
Both teams played everyone. The Patriots were looking for perfection, as well as those records. The Giants were 10-5 and already in the playoffs, but were trying to knock off the Patriots. The final score was 38-35 and, though I didn’t predict right then and there that New York would win the Super Bowl, I did predict that the only team that could possibly beat the Patriots in the super Bowl would be those Giants.
A few weeks later and sure enough, Super Bowl XLII pitted those two teams against each other. Those of you who read my posts last year know that since 2000 I have played a matchup of the super bowl teams on Madden every year and have only had the wrong outcome twice. My game lead to my prediction of the Giants over the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV, and to the Patriots defeated New York by 3-points in 2007. Had I stuck to my guns, I could still only have one smudge on my predictions record.
And now here we are, January 2012, the Packers and Giants in a rematch of one of the most exciting games of the regular season, one that gave me a similar feeling in my gut about the Giants. Will it take a little luck on the side of Eli Manning like with “The Helmet Catch?” Quite likely the answer is yes. But remember that it took a long drive with under a minute to play for the Packers to win that game and remain undefeated. And though that game certainly left an aura of invincibility around the Packers, just two weeks later Green Bay fell to the Chiefs. They are beatable.
My pick:
New York beats Green Bay, 37-31
Other Predictions:
Saints @ 49ers
Broncos @ Patriots
Texans @ Ravens
Game 4:
Sunday, January 15, 2012
4:30pm – FOX
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
It would be way too easy to just go and say the Packers will win this game. But I go back to 2007 and I’m sensing some Déjà vu, and I’m not talking about the Giants knocking off the Packers in the NFC Championship.
Let’s go back to the final game of the regular season in 2007. In this game, Tom Brady set the all-time record for touchdown passes in a season at 50, and on the same play Randy Moss broke Jerry Rice’s touchdown receptions record with his 23rd of the year.
Both teams played everyone. The Patriots were looking for perfection, as well as those records. The Giants were 10-5 and already in the playoffs, but were trying to knock off the Patriots. The final score was 38-35 and, though I didn’t predict right then and there that New York would win the Super Bowl, I did predict that the only team that could possibly beat the Patriots in the super Bowl would be those Giants.
A few weeks later and sure enough, Super Bowl XLII pitted those two teams against each other. Those of you who read my posts last year know that since 2000 I have played a matchup of the super bowl teams on Madden every year and have only had the wrong outcome twice. My game lead to my prediction of the Giants over the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV, and to the Patriots defeated New York by 3-points in 2007. Had I stuck to my guns, I could still only have one smudge on my predictions record.
And now here we are, January 2012, the Packers and Giants in a rematch of one of the most exciting games of the regular season, one that gave me a similar feeling in my gut about the Giants. Will it take a little luck on the side of Eli Manning like with “The Helmet Catch?” Quite likely the answer is yes. But remember that it took a long drive with under a minute to play for the Packers to win that game and remain undefeated. And though that game certainly left an aura of invincibility around the Packers, just two weeks later Green Bay fell to the Chiefs. They are beatable.
My pick:
New York beats Green Bay, 37-31
Other Predictions:
Saints @ 49ers
Broncos @ Patriots
Texans @ Ravens
Divisional Round 2012, Part III
A crazy wild-card weekend is in the books and eight teams now remain in the quest for the Lombardi trophy. This weekend features some matchups that, mostly, appear to be skewed heavily in favor of one team, but may be closer than expected.
Game 3:
Sunday, January 15, 2012
1:00pm – CBS
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have only earned a first-round bye once in their 16-season history. That year was 2006, and they lost a field-goal shootout at the hands of Indianapolis, who went on to win their first ring since Super Bowl III.
The Texans just won their first playoff game in their 10-season history. Wade Philips has done a fantastic job with Houston’s defense this year, Arian Foster continues to be a dominating force in the league, and T.J. Yates showed last week that he can play well against a talented defense.
But the Bengals are no Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens defense is one of the best in the league. Ray Lewis is getting older, but he plays with no less intensity that he did when he helped Baltimore win their first Super Bowl title (he is the only player from that roster still in Baltimore today). And with players like Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs, what the Ravens do lack in talent, they make up for in intimidation.
The Ravens offense has shown glimpses of greatness all season, but has had trouble with consistency. However, in three seasons with Joe Flacco at quarterback the Ravens have never lost their first postseason game. But they also haven’t won in the divisional round since Flacco’s rookie season when they lost to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. This year, the Ravens won their first AFC North title since 2006 when they finished with a franchise best 13 wins.
The Texans won 10 games for the first time this season, and in the process clinched their first division title. Now they’ve tasted success and want more.
This looks like a defensive battle to me, but the key to this game will be T.J. Yates. If he plays like he did against the Bengals, the Texans will be tough to beat. If, however, the Ravens defense can get to him early, he won’t regain his composure and the Ravens could run away with it.
My pick:
Baltimore beats Houston, 23-20 in OT (17-17 at end of regulation)
[Edit: I originally picked Houston to win by the same conditions but switched the teams just before publishing.]
Other Predictions:
Saints @ 49ers
Broncos @ Patriots
Giants @ Packers
Game 3:
Sunday, January 15, 2012
1:00pm – CBS
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have only earned a first-round bye once in their 16-season history. That year was 2006, and they lost a field-goal shootout at the hands of Indianapolis, who went on to win their first ring since Super Bowl III.
The Texans just won their first playoff game in their 10-season history. Wade Philips has done a fantastic job with Houston’s defense this year, Arian Foster continues to be a dominating force in the league, and T.J. Yates showed last week that he can play well against a talented defense.
But the Bengals are no Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens defense is one of the best in the league. Ray Lewis is getting older, but he plays with no less intensity that he did when he helped Baltimore win their first Super Bowl title (he is the only player from that roster still in Baltimore today). And with players like Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs, what the Ravens do lack in talent, they make up for in intimidation.
The Ravens offense has shown glimpses of greatness all season, but has had trouble with consistency. However, in three seasons with Joe Flacco at quarterback the Ravens have never lost their first postseason game. But they also haven’t won in the divisional round since Flacco’s rookie season when they lost to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. This year, the Ravens won their first AFC North title since 2006 when they finished with a franchise best 13 wins.
The Texans won 10 games for the first time this season, and in the process clinched their first division title. Now they’ve tasted success and want more.
This looks like a defensive battle to me, but the key to this game will be T.J. Yates. If he plays like he did against the Bengals, the Texans will be tough to beat. If, however, the Ravens defense can get to him early, he won’t regain his composure and the Ravens could run away with it.
My pick:
Baltimore beats Houston, 23-20 in OT (17-17 at end of regulation)
[Edit: I originally picked Houston to win by the same conditions but switched the teams just before publishing.]
Other Predictions:
Saints @ 49ers
Broncos @ Patriots
Giants @ Packers
Divisional Round 2012, Part II
A crazy wild-card weekend is in the books and eight teams now remain in the quest for the Lombardi trophy. This weekend features some matchups that, mostly, appear to be skewed heavily in favor of one team, but may be closer than expected.
Game 2:
Saturday, January 14, 2012
4:30pm – CBS
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Last week, Tebow Time struck again in Mile High. A brilliant 2nd quarter by Tebow put the Broncos up enough that a late Steelers comeback could do no more than send it into the shortest postseason game of NFL history, just 11 seconds.
There is no doubt that Tebow has improved dramatically over the course of this season. He is a league icon and has gradually developed an ability to play the game that backs up his status. But will the momentum from last week, and his early meeting with Tom Brady, be enough to lead the Broncos to an upset in Foxboro?
In week 15 the Patriots met up with the Broncos in Denver and finally pulled the plug on Tebow Time. The final score was 41-23 and it began a three-game slide to end the regular season for the Broncos. Luck was with Denver, however, as the Raiders failed to close out the season any better and the Broncos ended up with the AFC West title.
That was in Denver. This time the two teams meet on the Patriots home field. New England has had terrible luck the past few postseasons. After their ‘Imperfect Season,’ the Patriots finished 11-5 in 2008 but missed out on the postseason in an incredibly competitive year for the AFC. Since then they have won their division every year, but lost at home to Baltimore in the wild-card round in 2009, then to the Jets at home in the divisional playoffs last year, after clinching home field advantage.
So can Tebow Time keep the Patriots cold in the postseason? Or will Tom Brady regain his postseason prowess and lead New England to their first conference championship game since 2007?
My pick:
New England beats Denver, 38-21
Other Predictions:
Saints @ 49ers
Texans @ Ravens
Giants @ Packers
Game 2:
Saturday, January 14, 2012
4:30pm – CBS
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Last week, Tebow Time struck again in Mile High. A brilliant 2nd quarter by Tebow put the Broncos up enough that a late Steelers comeback could do no more than send it into the shortest postseason game of NFL history, just 11 seconds.
There is no doubt that Tebow has improved dramatically over the course of this season. He is a league icon and has gradually developed an ability to play the game that backs up his status. But will the momentum from last week, and his early meeting with Tom Brady, be enough to lead the Broncos to an upset in Foxboro?
In week 15 the Patriots met up with the Broncos in Denver and finally pulled the plug on Tebow Time. The final score was 41-23 and it began a three-game slide to end the regular season for the Broncos. Luck was with Denver, however, as the Raiders failed to close out the season any better and the Broncos ended up with the AFC West title.
That was in Denver. This time the two teams meet on the Patriots home field. New England has had terrible luck the past few postseasons. After their ‘Imperfect Season,’ the Patriots finished 11-5 in 2008 but missed out on the postseason in an incredibly competitive year for the AFC. Since then they have won their division every year, but lost at home to Baltimore in the wild-card round in 2009, then to the Jets at home in the divisional playoffs last year, after clinching home field advantage.
So can Tebow Time keep the Patriots cold in the postseason? Or will Tom Brady regain his postseason prowess and lead New England to their first conference championship game since 2007?
My pick:
New England beats Denver, 38-21
Other Predictions:
Saints @ 49ers
Texans @ Ravens
Giants @ Packers
Divisional Round 2012, Part I
A crazy wild-card weekend is in the books and eight teams now remain in the quest for the Lombardi trophy. This weekend features some matchups that, mostly, appear to be skewed heavily in favor of one team, but may be closer than expected.
Game 1:
Saturday, January 14, 2012
4:30pm – FOX
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
Both teams finished the regular season at 13-3, but got there in very different ways. The Saints used a good defense to compliment the outstanding season performances of Drew Brees and Darren Sproles.
San Francisco had an even better defense, which only gave up three rushing touchdowns all season. They used an incredibly balanced offensive attack, scoring 14 touchdowns on the ground and 18 through the air (17 by Alex Smith). Having record setting kicker David Akers, who also threw that 18th touchdown pass, certainly helped, too.
To quote an NFLNetwork anchor, this is a classic example of “an unstoppable force meeting an unmovable object.” San Francisco has kept enough points off the board that they haven’t needed an explosive offense, and though they have put points up against lesser teams, that is not likely to happen this week. New Orleans has everything needed to win a close game or a shootout (or a blowout for that matter).
This week, Alex Smith said that he isn’t worried about the possibility, and indeed likelihood, of having to run with the Saints. I, on the other hand, am worried for the 49ers sake. This game could be an instant classic, becoming one of the most remembered playoff games of history, or at the very least of recent memory. Or it could be a blowout. If the latter, no doubt it will lead to the Saints playing in either Lambeau or New York.
My pick:
New Orleans beats San Francisco, 31-20
Other Predictions:
Broncos @ Patriots
Texans @ Ravens
Giants @ Packers
Game 1:
Saturday, January 14, 2012
4:30pm – FOX
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
Both teams finished the regular season at 13-3, but got there in very different ways. The Saints used a good defense to compliment the outstanding season performances of Drew Brees and Darren Sproles.
San Francisco had an even better defense, which only gave up three rushing touchdowns all season. They used an incredibly balanced offensive attack, scoring 14 touchdowns on the ground and 18 through the air (17 by Alex Smith). Having record setting kicker David Akers, who also threw that 18th touchdown pass, certainly helped, too.
To quote an NFLNetwork anchor, this is a classic example of “an unstoppable force meeting an unmovable object.” San Francisco has kept enough points off the board that they haven’t needed an explosive offense, and though they have put points up against lesser teams, that is not likely to happen this week. New Orleans has everything needed to win a close game or a shootout (or a blowout for that matter).
This week, Alex Smith said that he isn’t worried about the possibility, and indeed likelihood, of having to run with the Saints. I, on the other hand, am worried for the 49ers sake. This game could be an instant classic, becoming one of the most remembered playoff games of history, or at the very least of recent memory. Or it could be a blowout. If the latter, no doubt it will lead to the Saints playing in either Lambeau or New York.
My pick:
New Orleans beats San Francisco, 31-20
Other Predictions:
Broncos @ Patriots
Texans @ Ravens
Giants @ Packers
Friday, January 6, 2012
Wild-Card 2012, Part IV
As I did last year, I will be breaking down each playoff matchup in its own post. Be sure to check out my predictions for all four games.
Game 4:
Sunday, January 8, 2012
4:30pm – CBS
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
I am excited to see Tim Tebow in the playoffs, but there is no hiding my feeling that he and the Broncos will be leaving early. On the bright side, they won’t have a long flight to come back on after the game.
There is hope for the Broncos, but I don’t think it is enough.
Rashard Mendenhall is out for the Steelers, and an already fantastic Broncos defense will only have an easier time because of it. Just because I am confident that Denver will lose on Sunday, I do not see the Steelers running up the score by any means.
Another ray of hope for the Broncos is Pittsburgh’s loss of Ryan Clark for this game. A few years ago, in a game between these two teams in the same stadium, Clark nearly died after the high altitude caused some medical problems due to him having sickle cell trait (which is not the same as sickle cell anemia). After that game, Clark had to have two major organs removed.
The significance of that loss is that Clark’s style of play allows Troy Polamalu to free style and give the appearance of being everywhere on the field at one time. If Polamalu has to play the role of a safety, that could give Tebow room to run around with only James Harrison to really have to keep a close eye on. If Polamalu starts cheating up, Tebow has shown that he can throw, and if he can break the slump he spent the last three weeks in, the Broncos could give the Steelers a scare.
That said, my pick:
Pittsburgh beats Denver, 17-10
Other Predictions:
Bengals @ Texans
Lions @ Saints
Falcons @ Giants
Game 4:
Sunday, January 8, 2012
4:30pm – CBS
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
I am excited to see Tim Tebow in the playoffs, but there is no hiding my feeling that he and the Broncos will be leaving early. On the bright side, they won’t have a long flight to come back on after the game.
There is hope for the Broncos, but I don’t think it is enough.
Rashard Mendenhall is out for the Steelers, and an already fantastic Broncos defense will only have an easier time because of it. Just because I am confident that Denver will lose on Sunday, I do not see the Steelers running up the score by any means.
Another ray of hope for the Broncos is Pittsburgh’s loss of Ryan Clark for this game. A few years ago, in a game between these two teams in the same stadium, Clark nearly died after the high altitude caused some medical problems due to him having sickle cell trait (which is not the same as sickle cell anemia). After that game, Clark had to have two major organs removed.
The significance of that loss is that Clark’s style of play allows Troy Polamalu to free style and give the appearance of being everywhere on the field at one time. If Polamalu has to play the role of a safety, that could give Tebow room to run around with only James Harrison to really have to keep a close eye on. If Polamalu starts cheating up, Tebow has shown that he can throw, and if he can break the slump he spent the last three weeks in, the Broncos could give the Steelers a scare.
That said, my pick:
Pittsburgh beats Denver, 17-10
Other Predictions:
Bengals @ Texans
Lions @ Saints
Falcons @ Giants
Wild-Card 2012, Part III
As I did last year, I will be breaking down each playoff matchup in its own post. Be sure to check out my predictions for all four games.
Game 3:
Sunday, January 8, 2011
1:00pm – FOX
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
This is the matchup I am most excited to watch this weekend. The Falcons have done a fantastic job of protecting Matt Ryan all season, especially during the past eight weeks, and they will be tested against a very strong Giants defensive line. Meanwhile, Eli Manning is the record holder for single-season 4th quarter touchdown passes and his young wide receiver, Victor Cruz, has been one of the most impressive players I’ve seen this season.
Cruz went from being undrafted a few years ago to setting a Giants franchise record for single-season receiving yards and third in the NFL during the 2011 season. He also has the most 65+ yard touchdown receptions in a single season than anyone since the 50’s with five of them.
Meanwhile, Atlanta also has a young wide receiver who has come on quite strong of late. Julio Jones, after a very quiet several weeks, has really been big for the Falcons during the last three or four games, which has also allowed Roddy White to put up some bigger numbers than he was early in the season. With Tony Gonzalez, the Falcons have three top-notch receivers who are all coming into the playoffs hot.
Matt Ryan has not been as impressive to me this year as he was in 2010, but if the Falcons offensive line can continue to keep him on his feet, Ryan may finally break into the win column in a postseason game.
This is the toughest game for me to call, which is the main reason why I am more excited for this game than the Saints/Lions game.
My pick:
Atlanta beats New York, 21-17
Other Predictions:
Bengals @ Texans
Lions @ Saints
Steelers @ Broncos
Game 3:
Sunday, January 8, 2011
1:00pm – FOX
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
This is the matchup I am most excited to watch this weekend. The Falcons have done a fantastic job of protecting Matt Ryan all season, especially during the past eight weeks, and they will be tested against a very strong Giants defensive line. Meanwhile, Eli Manning is the record holder for single-season 4th quarter touchdown passes and his young wide receiver, Victor Cruz, has been one of the most impressive players I’ve seen this season.
Cruz went from being undrafted a few years ago to setting a Giants franchise record for single-season receiving yards and third in the NFL during the 2011 season. He also has the most 65+ yard touchdown receptions in a single season than anyone since the 50’s with five of them.
Meanwhile, Atlanta also has a young wide receiver who has come on quite strong of late. Julio Jones, after a very quiet several weeks, has really been big for the Falcons during the last three or four games, which has also allowed Roddy White to put up some bigger numbers than he was early in the season. With Tony Gonzalez, the Falcons have three top-notch receivers who are all coming into the playoffs hot.
Matt Ryan has not been as impressive to me this year as he was in 2010, but if the Falcons offensive line can continue to keep him on his feet, Ryan may finally break into the win column in a postseason game.
This is the toughest game for me to call, which is the main reason why I am more excited for this game than the Saints/Lions game.
My pick:
Atlanta beats New York, 21-17
Other Predictions:
Bengals @ Texans
Lions @ Saints
Steelers @ Broncos
Wild-Card 2012, Part II
As I did last year, I will be breaking down each playoff matchup in its own post. Be sure to check out my predictions for all four games.
Game 2:
Saturday, January 7, 2012
8:00pm – NBC
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
As I write this I am watching the entire week 13 matchup between these two teams. New Orleans put up some big points, 24 of them, in the first half and only gave up a touchdown before the break. Detroit had a good 3rd quarter, outscoring the Saints 10-0 before giving up another score in the final period and losing 31-17.
The glaring difference between that matchup and tomorrow’s is that their earlier meeting was in the middle of Ndamukong Suh’s suspension. With Suh in tomorrow, the Lions defense could look very different and it will be very interesting to see how the Saints go about using their ground game.
Last week, Detroit showed that they can participate in a shootout. They lost to the Flynn-led Packers, but it was a fireworks display on offense. That experience could go a long way to helping them in this game against a team that knows how to put up big points.
A week after Drew Brees broke Dan Marino’s 27-year old passing record, Tom Brady broke the same mark and Detroit’s young quarterback nearly bested Marino, too. What’s more impressive is he did it without fewer well-known weapons than Brees. Nate Burleson had a quite early part of the season but he has been playing a bigger part in the Lions’ offense recently. The Saints did a pretty good job in their earlier meeting with covering Calvin Johnson, so Burleson will need to get open with so few other targets for Stafford to go to.
My pick:
New Orleans beats Detroit, 41-27
Other Predictions:
Bengals @ Texans
Falcons @ Giants
Steelers @ Broncos
Game 2:
Saturday, January 7, 2012
8:00pm – NBC
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
As I write this I am watching the entire week 13 matchup between these two teams. New Orleans put up some big points, 24 of them, in the first half and only gave up a touchdown before the break. Detroit had a good 3rd quarter, outscoring the Saints 10-0 before giving up another score in the final period and losing 31-17.
The glaring difference between that matchup and tomorrow’s is that their earlier meeting was in the middle of Ndamukong Suh’s suspension. With Suh in tomorrow, the Lions defense could look very different and it will be very interesting to see how the Saints go about using their ground game.
Last week, Detroit showed that they can participate in a shootout. They lost to the Flynn-led Packers, but it was a fireworks display on offense. That experience could go a long way to helping them in this game against a team that knows how to put up big points.
A week after Drew Brees broke Dan Marino’s 27-year old passing record, Tom Brady broke the same mark and Detroit’s young quarterback nearly bested Marino, too. What’s more impressive is he did it without fewer well-known weapons than Brees. Nate Burleson had a quite early part of the season but he has been playing a bigger part in the Lions’ offense recently. The Saints did a pretty good job in their earlier meeting with covering Calvin Johnson, so Burleson will need to get open with so few other targets for Stafford to go to.
My pick:
New Orleans beats Detroit, 41-27
Other Predictions:
Bengals @ Texans
Falcons @ Giants
Steelers @ Broncos
Wild-Card 2012, Part I
As I did last year, I will be breaking down each playoff matchup in its own post. Be sure to check out my predictions for all four games.
Game 1:
Saturday, January 7, 2012
4:30pm – NBC
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
This is a very interesting matchup for many reasons, not the least of which is that two rookie quarterbacks will be facing off in this one.
Andy Dalton is one of my favorites for rookie of the year, with only Cam Newton and Von Miller also being in the running, in my opinion. T.J. Yates has had a rough last few weeks, but did pretty well in his first outings of the season.
Yates has said he feels very confident this week, but no matter how he does, I think the Bengals have the edge in the passing game. Though Andre Johnson is terrific, Yates has to get him the ball, and I don’t think he can do that enough to give his team a huge life through the air. That said, he doesn’t really have to because the Texans have a huge advantage running the ball. Arian Foster continued to show that he can have huge performances this season after leading the league in rushing in 2010. In addition, Ben Tate has had his share of big games, and no matter which is on the field, the Bengals have to respect the Texans’ rushing attack.
The Texans also have an advantage on defense. After being one of the lower ranked defensive units last season, Wade Phillips has done a fantastic job turning them around this season, one of the reasons why the Texans are making their first postseason appearance in franchise history despite losing Matt Schaub to injury early in the season.
Don’t expect the Bengals to fall easily, but they will fall this week.
My pick:
Houston beats Cincinnati, 27-16
Other Predictions:
Lions @ Saints
Falcons @ Giants
Steelers @ Broncos
Game 1:
Saturday, January 7, 2012
4:30pm – NBC
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
This is a very interesting matchup for many reasons, not the least of which is that two rookie quarterbacks will be facing off in this one.
Andy Dalton is one of my favorites for rookie of the year, with only Cam Newton and Von Miller also being in the running, in my opinion. T.J. Yates has had a rough last few weeks, but did pretty well in his first outings of the season.
Yates has said he feels very confident this week, but no matter how he does, I think the Bengals have the edge in the passing game. Though Andre Johnson is terrific, Yates has to get him the ball, and I don’t think he can do that enough to give his team a huge life through the air. That said, he doesn’t really have to because the Texans have a huge advantage running the ball. Arian Foster continued to show that he can have huge performances this season after leading the league in rushing in 2010. In addition, Ben Tate has had his share of big games, and no matter which is on the field, the Bengals have to respect the Texans’ rushing attack.
The Texans also have an advantage on defense. After being one of the lower ranked defensive units last season, Wade Phillips has done a fantastic job turning them around this season, one of the reasons why the Texans are making their first postseason appearance in franchise history despite losing Matt Schaub to injury early in the season.
Don’t expect the Bengals to fall easily, but they will fall this week.
My pick:
Houston beats Cincinnati, 27-16
Other Predictions:
Lions @ Saints
Falcons @ Giants
Steelers @ Broncos
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
2011 Season in Review
Unfortunately, I became too busy during the semester to keep my blog up to date during this past semester. With the winter break here, I have time to get this going again, just in time for the postseason, no less.
This has been a very exciting season, and a surprising one, too. Of my preseason predictions of end-of-season records, I got just three teams correct: the Giants (9-7), the Redskins (5-11), and the Texans (10-6). I was close on several others. As for my playoff predictions, I was way off on a few, but I am pleased that I correctly predicted the top three seeds for the AFC playoffs; New England, Baltimore, and Houston, respectively.
2011 saw many let downs, breakout performances, and, of course, Tebow Time. The Eagles, or the ‘Dream Team’ as Vince Young famously titled them, stumbled out of the gate. It was too late for them, but they got on a roll at the end of the season, and with Reid returning next year they have some good momentum heading into offseason workouts.
The 49ers may have been the biggest surprise of the 2011 season. With no offseason to work with his team, Jim Harbaugh let San Francisco to not only their first playoff appearance, but also their first winning season since 2002. Alex Smith finally looked like a quarterback worth the first overall pick that he was back in 2005, and Ted Ginn, Jr. helped them start of the season with a win, returning a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns in the 4th quarter of their week one game against Seattle.
The Packers season got off to a hot start. But a recently Todd Haley-less Chiefs team outsmarted the Jennings-less Packers in week 15 to give Green Bay their first, and only, loss of the season. Not only that, but the winning quarterback was Kyle Orton, who led the Broncos to a 49-23 loss against the Packers eleven weeks earlier.
Meanwhile, the Broncos, after starting 1-4 with Kyle Orton starting, switched to Tim Tebow and won seven of their next eight games before losing their last three. But it was just enough to win the AFC West and their first playoff appearance since 2005.
The Colts never did get Peyton Manning back this season and went from being considered a Super Bowl contender before the season to a 2-14 season and owners of the #1 pick in the 2012 college draft.
Last year’s #1 pick, Cam Newton, made a strong case for rookie of the year, breaking all kinds of rookie records, including a few of Manning’s. He also set the all-time record for touchdown rushes by a quarterback in a single season.
His main competition comes from Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, who had a pretty fantastic rookie season himself and has his team in the playoffs.
Von Miller, the rookie linebacker for Denver is almost certain to be the defensive rookie of the year, and is the one other individual who could give Newton a run for overall ROY in 2011. He was a major contributor to Denver’s excellent defensive efforts during the regular season and has already been awarded with a ticket to play in the Pro Bowl.
And, of course, there was one other major occurrence I would never live down not including in this post. On the day after Christmas, Dan Marino's 27-year-old passing record was finally broken by Drew Brees, who is now my favorite for league MVP, with Aaron Rodgers a close 2nd and Tom Brady a distant 3rd.
The postseason begins this Saturday. Interestingly enough, I am already excited for next season. In the meantime, I will do as I did last year and post predictions the day before each day of playoff games, so my next post will be on Friday.
This has been a very exciting season, and a surprising one, too. Of my preseason predictions of end-of-season records, I got just three teams correct: the Giants (9-7), the Redskins (5-11), and the Texans (10-6). I was close on several others. As for my playoff predictions, I was way off on a few, but I am pleased that I correctly predicted the top three seeds for the AFC playoffs; New England, Baltimore, and Houston, respectively.
2011 saw many let downs, breakout performances, and, of course, Tebow Time. The Eagles, or the ‘Dream Team’ as Vince Young famously titled them, stumbled out of the gate. It was too late for them, but they got on a roll at the end of the season, and with Reid returning next year they have some good momentum heading into offseason workouts.
The 49ers may have been the biggest surprise of the 2011 season. With no offseason to work with his team, Jim Harbaugh let San Francisco to not only their first playoff appearance, but also their first winning season since 2002. Alex Smith finally looked like a quarterback worth the first overall pick that he was back in 2005, and Ted Ginn, Jr. helped them start of the season with a win, returning a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns in the 4th quarter of their week one game against Seattle.
The Packers season got off to a hot start. But a recently Todd Haley-less Chiefs team outsmarted the Jennings-less Packers in week 15 to give Green Bay their first, and only, loss of the season. Not only that, but the winning quarterback was Kyle Orton, who led the Broncos to a 49-23 loss against the Packers eleven weeks earlier.
Meanwhile, the Broncos, after starting 1-4 with Kyle Orton starting, switched to Tim Tebow and won seven of their next eight games before losing their last three. But it was just enough to win the AFC West and their first playoff appearance since 2005.
The Colts never did get Peyton Manning back this season and went from being considered a Super Bowl contender before the season to a 2-14 season and owners of the #1 pick in the 2012 college draft.
Last year’s #1 pick, Cam Newton, made a strong case for rookie of the year, breaking all kinds of rookie records, including a few of Manning’s. He also set the all-time record for touchdown rushes by a quarterback in a single season.
His main competition comes from Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, who had a pretty fantastic rookie season himself and has his team in the playoffs.
Von Miller, the rookie linebacker for Denver is almost certain to be the defensive rookie of the year, and is the one other individual who could give Newton a run for overall ROY in 2011. He was a major contributor to Denver’s excellent defensive efforts during the regular season and has already been awarded with a ticket to play in the Pro Bowl.
And, of course, there was one other major occurrence I would never live down not including in this post. On the day after Christmas, Dan Marino's 27-year-old passing record was finally broken by Drew Brees, who is now my favorite for league MVP, with Aaron Rodgers a close 2nd and Tom Brady a distant 3rd.
The postseason begins this Saturday. Interestingly enough, I am already excited for next season. In the meantime, I will do as I did last year and post predictions the day before each day of playoff games, so my next post will be on Friday.
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