Divisional Round Preview: Broncos vs Ravens

Game 1:

Saturday, January 12, 2013

4:30pm – CBS

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

Von Miller (58) and Ed Reed (20) will be key to their teams' defensive
game plans. Miller will have to slow down Ray Rice while Reed will try
to confuse Manning in coverage. Photo credit to ESPN.

Peyton Manning is in uncharted territory in many ways. This is his first postseason playing in anything but white and blue. It is also the first time he played all 60 minutes of all 17 games during the season and still got a first round bye. In addition, he has a solid defense, and a run game, for once.

So it should not come as much surprise that I am picking his Broncos to win at home against the Baltimore Ravens. But let’s get more specific about why they will win this game.

I have yet to see four solid quarters in a single game from Joe Flacco in the second half of this season. He made some strides last week by playing very well in the second half, and his receivers made up for a mediocre first half. That, however, will not be enough against the Broncos.

Denver’s defense ranks in the top 3 in the NFL against both the run and the pass, so don’t expect Anquan Boldin or anyone else to be able to save Joe Flacco if his passes aren’t on point. With Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller coming at him, I don’t expect Flacco to have a fun day in Denver.

Ray Rice is what will keep Baltimore in this one. Denver has a tendency to over-pursue at times, and Rice has the athleticism and awareness to take advantage of that. Still, there is only so much you can do if the run game is the only thing you can establish.

Baltimore’s defense tends to give Peyton Manning fits. He has not touched 300 passing yards in any of his last seven meetings with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Despite that, he has not lost in any of those seven games. I think Manning will prove to be the most valuable player in this game, but not based on stats. It will be his ability to read Baltimore’s defensive coverages and effectively use Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman that will prove his worth to Denver’s offense.

Usually in a matchup between Manning and this defense, I would pick a low final score, but Denver’s defense is much better than anything Indianapolis ever had while he was there. I think they will create some scoring opportunities Manning normally wouldn’t have.

Puff’s Pick:

Baltimore Ravens – 13

Denver Broncos – 27

MVP: Peyton Manning

2011 Season in Review

Unfortunately, I became too busy during the semester to keep my blog up to date during this past semester. With the winter break here, I have time to get this going again, just in time for the postseason, no less.

This has been a very exciting season, and a surprising one, too. Of my preseason predictions of end-of-season records, I got just three teams correct: the Giants (9-7), the Redskins (5-11), and the Texans (10-6). I was close on several others. As for my playoff predictions, I was way off on a few, but I am pleased that I correctly predicted the top three seeds for the AFC playoffs; New England, Baltimore, and Houston, respectively.

2011 saw many let downs, breakout performances, and, of course, Tebow Time. The Eagles, or the ‘Dream Team’ as Vince Young famously titled them, stumbled out of the gate. It was too late for them, but they got on a roll at the end of the season, and with Reid returning next year they have some good momentum heading into offseason workouts.

The 49ers may have been the biggest surprise of the 2011 season. With no offseason to work with his team, Jim Harbaugh let San Francisco to not only their first playoff appearance, but also their first winning season since 2002. Alex Smith finally looked like a quarterback worth the first overall pick that he was back in 2005, and Ted Ginn, Jr. helped them start of the season with a win, returning a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns in the 4th quarter of their week one game against Seattle.

The Packers season got off to a hot start. But a recently Todd Haley-less Chiefs team outsmarted the Jennings-less Packers in week 15 to give Green Bay their first, and only, loss of the season. Not only that, but the winning quarterback was Kyle Orton, who led the Broncos to a 49-23 loss against the Packers eleven weeks earlier.

Meanwhile, the Broncos, after starting 1-4 with Kyle Orton starting, switched to Tim Tebow and won seven of their next eight games before losing their last three. But it was just enough to win the AFC West and their first playoff appearance since 2005.

The Colts never did get Peyton Manning back this season and went from being considered a Super Bowl contender before the season to a 2-14 season and owners of the #1 pick in the 2012 college draft.

Last year’s #1 pick, Cam Newton, made a strong case for rookie of the year, breaking all kinds of rookie records, including a few of Manning’s. He also set the all-time record for touchdown rushes by a quarterback in a single season.

His main competition comes from Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, who had a pretty fantastic rookie season himself and has his team in the playoffs.

Von Miller, the rookie linebacker for Denver is almost certain to be the defensive rookie of the year, and is the one other individual who could give Newton a run for overall ROY in 2011. He was a major contributor to Denver’s excellent defensive efforts during the regular season and has already been awarded with a ticket to play in the Pro Bowl.

And, of course, there was one other major occurrence I would never live down not including in this post. On the day after Christmas, Dan Marino's 27-year-old passing record was finally broken by Drew Brees, who is now my favorite for league MVP, with Aaron Rodgers a close 2nd and Tom Brady a distant 3rd.

The postseason begins this Saturday. Interestingly enough, I am already excited for next season. In the meantime, I will do as I did last year and post predictions the day before each day of playoff games, so my next post will be on Friday.