2014 Wild Card Preview: Colts vs Chiefs

Cory Puffett

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

January 4 – 4:35pm (NBC)

Like two of the other wild card games, this is a rematch from the regular season. But this was the most recent of those games, so some think that the Week 16 matchup between these teams will be nearest to the result this weekend brings.

I have a different opinion. While we can expect a similar Colts team to show up this Saturday in Indianapolis, Kansas City was a shell of itself in that regular season showdown in Arrowhead.

Early in the season, the Chiefs were all about the defense. Jamaal Charles was their offensive leader and Alex Smith’s job was primarily to keep opponents from focusing exclusively on Charles. After Kansas City suffered their first loss, it seemed like the defense was no longer the focus and the game plan shifted to putting up more points. Smith took some more shots down field, Charles was used more in the passing game, and suddenly Kansas City was playing in shootouts.

But they scored just once against Indianapolis in Week 16. Jamaal Charles ran in from 31 yards out to cap Kansas City’s opening drive and then nothing seemed to go right for the Chiefs after that. They had a few good possessions, but a missed field goal and some turnovers kept them from putting points on the board.

Alex Smith threw into some coverages that left me scratching my head. For a guy who doesn’t take a lot of risks, he sure did on that Sunday afternoon. Playing on the road, I expect him to revert to his old habit of protecting the football and using his check down guys more liberally.

Now, after playing so poorly in Week 16 and resting Week 17 (20 of 22 starters did not play against San Diego) don’t be surprised if the Chiefs come out a little rusty. I expect it to wear off though, and Jamaal Charles should have a big second half.

The Colts’ defense had a rough patch mid-season but seems to have shaken it over the past several weeks. That said, they’ve still struggled to contain the better running backs they’ve faced. Charles had a pretty good game in Week 16. The Colts won that game off of Smith’s atypical play and some clutch takeaways.

Indy has struggled to put points on the board since Reggie Wayne was hurt in Week 7. I don’t expect that to change against a Chiefs defense that has played well against mid-level offensive units.

Sure Kansas City has lost 5 of their last 7. I don’t think that means they’re doomed to be a one-and-done team, though. I’ll make my official pick later in the week with the rest of the Football Freaks, but right now I have to say I’m leaning toward Kansas City.

Puff's Pick:

Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.