2014 Wild Card Preview: Packers vs 49ers

Cory Puffett

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

January 5 – 4:40pm (FOX)

Aaron Rodgers is back! Randall Cobb is back! So why am I not so sure that Green Bay will stomp the 49ers on Sunday?

Is it because Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 against the Packers? More specifically, Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 against the Packers when Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb are both active. Both were available for Green Bay when the 49ers beat them in the season opener. Both played when the 49ers beat them in last year’s season opener. Both were active when they couldn’t do to San Francisco’s defense what Colin Kaepernick did to theirs in last year’s divisional playoff game.

If anything gives Green Bay an edge this week, it’s the weather. Saturday is the last day they are calling for snow in Green Bay this week, but the high on Sunday is expected to be just 12 degrees. And this is Sunday’s late game.

Colin Kaepernick seems to have gotten over his slump from the beginning and middle of the season. He has a passer rating of at least 108 in his last three games and five of his last six. But how will he handle the frigid conditions of Lambeau in January?

The trouble with predicting this game is that you don’t want to focus only on the weather conditions the game will be played in. At the same time, you can’t rely simply on stats because Green Bay is so far below most other teams primarily because Rodgers was inactive for so long. You also can’t lean too heavily on that season-opener; it was too long ago and the players and coaches have (hopefully) grown since then.

More likely than not, this game will come down to who can run the ball the best. In the last three meetings between the Packers and 49ers, San Francisco has had a heavy advantage here. But Eddie Lacy has made a name for himself this year and will make it more difficult for the 49ers’ defense to contain Aaron Rodgers and all his toys.

Part of the reason why I’m so excited for this game is because it is so difficult to predict who will win. I will make my official pick on tomorrow’s Football Freak’s podcast. Until then, I have a lot to think about. I’m not even remotely sure of who I will be picking.

Puff’s Pick:

Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.

2014 Wild Card Preview: Bengals vs Chargers

Cory Puffett

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

January 5 – 1:05pm (CBS)

Andy Dalton hopes the third time’s the charm. He led his Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons but will look to get the playoff monkey off his back on Sunday. His Bengals fell to Houston in the 2012 and 2013 playoffs.

Cincinnati is unbeaten at home this year. And is it any wonder? They average 34 points/game at Paul Brown Stadium compared to just 19 per game on the road. Their defense also plays better at home, though it only translates to a difference of about five points per game for their opponents.

San Diego has had an up-and-down season. Their offense has played well most of the year. Philip Rivers is certainly one of my leading candidates for most improved player after the way he struggled the previous two seasons. Ryan Mathews is another candidate. He’s suffered from fumblitis most of his career but was a focal point for the Chargers offense during their late-season run.

To make the playoffs, San Diego had to win five of their last six games after a three-game losing streak coming out of their bye. And they didn’t just beat a bunch of slouches either. They had to win in Kansas City and in Denver, and then they had to beat the Chiefs again last week at home.

Now, Kansas City did rest all but two of their starters, but those backups were hungry and you still have to credit San Diego for fighting them off, even if a couple officiating errors may have influenced the outcome of that game.

But that one late-season loss came at home against Cincinnati. And now they have to play the Bengals on the road, in front of a crowd that hasn’t seen its team lose in person in almost 13 months.

Cincinnati has improved each of the past three seasons. In 2011 they went 9-7, finished third in the AFC North, and then lost by 21 to Houston in their Wild Card game. Last year they went 10-6, finished second in the division and lost by just six, again to Houston, in the Wild Card round.

Now Dalton and the Bengals have an 11-5 record and AFC North title under their belts, and a chance to win their first playoff game since a 41-14 romp against the Houston Oilers in January 1991.

But look out for Philip Rivers. He’s been known to spoil the postseason for other promising teams. He did it to Peyton Manning’s Colts twice. Now, he does only have one road win to his credit in the postseason, but remember that those were the Norv Turner Chargers. And before that, Rivers lost both playoff games under Marty Schottenheimer. With Mike McCoy, Rivers plans to change his fortunes.

Cincinnati has to be the favorite to win this matchup, but I’m not ready to count out the Bolts. I will make my official pick on tomorrow’s Football Freaks Wild Card prediction podcast.

Puff’s Pick:

Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.

2014 Wild Card Preview: Colts vs Chiefs

Cory Puffett

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

January 4 – 4:35pm (NBC)

Like two of the other wild card games, this is a rematch from the regular season. But this was the most recent of those games, so some think that the Week 16 matchup between these teams will be nearest to the result this weekend brings.

I have a different opinion. While we can expect a similar Colts team to show up this Saturday in Indianapolis, Kansas City was a shell of itself in that regular season showdown in Arrowhead.

Early in the season, the Chiefs were all about the defense. Jamaal Charles was their offensive leader and Alex Smith’s job was primarily to keep opponents from focusing exclusively on Charles. After Kansas City suffered their first loss, it seemed like the defense was no longer the focus and the game plan shifted to putting up more points. Smith took some more shots down field, Charles was used more in the passing game, and suddenly Kansas City was playing in shootouts.

But they scored just once against Indianapolis in Week 16. Jamaal Charles ran in from 31 yards out to cap Kansas City’s opening drive and then nothing seemed to go right for the Chiefs after that. They had a few good possessions, but a missed field goal and some turnovers kept them from putting points on the board.

Alex Smith threw into some coverages that left me scratching my head. For a guy who doesn’t take a lot of risks, he sure did on that Sunday afternoon. Playing on the road, I expect him to revert to his old habit of protecting the football and using his check down guys more liberally.

Now, after playing so poorly in Week 16 and resting Week 17 (20 of 22 starters did not play against San Diego) don’t be surprised if the Chiefs come out a little rusty. I expect it to wear off though, and Jamaal Charles should have a big second half.

The Colts’ defense had a rough patch mid-season but seems to have shaken it over the past several weeks. That said, they’ve still struggled to contain the better running backs they’ve faced. Charles had a pretty good game in Week 16. The Colts won that game off of Smith’s atypical play and some clutch takeaways.

Indy has struggled to put points on the board since Reggie Wayne was hurt in Week 7. I don’t expect that to change against a Chiefs defense that has played well against mid-level offensive units.

Sure Kansas City has lost 5 of their last 7. I don’t think that means they’re doomed to be a one-and-done team, though. I’ll make my official pick later in the week with the rest of the Football Freaks, but right now I have to say I’m leaning toward Kansas City.

Puff's Pick:

Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.