Cory Puffett
San Diego Chargers at
Cincinnati Bengals
January 5 – 1:05pm
(CBS)
Andy Dalton hopes the third time’s the charm. He led his
Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons but will look to get
the playoff monkey off his back on Sunday. His Bengals fell to Houston in the
2012 and 2013 playoffs.
Cincinnati is unbeaten at home this year. And is it any
wonder? They average 34 points/game at Paul Brown Stadium compared to just 19
per game on the road. Their defense also plays better at home, though it only
translates to a difference of about five points per game for their opponents.
San Diego has had an up-and-down season. Their offense has
played well most of the year. Philip Rivers is certainly one of my leading
candidates for most improved player after the way he struggled the previous two
seasons. Ryan Mathews is another candidate. He’s suffered from fumblitis most
of his career but was a focal point for the Chargers offense during their
late-season run.
To make the playoffs, San Diego had to win five of their
last six games after a three-game losing streak coming out of their bye. And
they didn’t just beat a bunch of slouches either. They had to win in Kansas
City and in Denver, and then they had to beat the Chiefs again last week at
home.
Now, Kansas City did rest all but two of their starters, but
those backups were hungry and you still have to credit San Diego for fighting
them off, even if a couple officiating errors may have influenced the outcome
of that game.
But that one late-season loss came at home against
Cincinnati. And now they have to play the Bengals on the road, in front of a
crowd that hasn’t seen its team lose in person in almost 13 months.
Cincinnati has improved each of the past three seasons. In
2011 they went 9-7, finished third in the AFC North, and then lost by 21 to
Houston in their Wild Card game. Last year they went 10-6, finished second in
the division and lost by just six, again to Houston, in the Wild Card round.
Now Dalton and the Bengals have an 11-5 record and AFC North
title under their belts, and a chance to win their first playoff game since a
41-14 romp against the Houston Oilers in January 1991.
But look out for Philip Rivers. He’s been known to spoil the
postseason for other promising teams. He did it to Peyton Manning’s Colts
twice. Now, he does only have one road win to his credit in the postseason, but
remember that those were the Norv Turner Chargers. And before that, Rivers lost
both playoff games under Marty Schottenheimer. With Mike McCoy, Rivers plans to
change his fortunes.
Cincinnati has to be the favorite to win this matchup, but
I’m not ready to count out the Bolts. I will make my official pick on
tomorrow’s Football Freaks Wild Card prediction podcast.
Puff’s Pick:
Will be added after
the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.
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