2014 Divisional Preview: Broncos vs Chargers

Cory Puffett

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

January 12 – 4:40pm (CBS)

They’re calling for highs in the mid-40s on Sunday and temperatures shouldn’t dip below freezing until after the game ends. They’re also calling for a lot of wind in Denver, but current forecasts show this game falling in a much milder part of the day.

I bring that up only because this isn’t the game to read too much into Peyton Manning’s cold-weather struggles. Unless weather conditions turn out to be more extreme than expected, any failure on his part will be due to something else entirely.

This game received Eric’s vote for game of the week, and it’s not hard to see why. Denver and San Diego have already faced off twice this season, each taking a win in the other’s home stadium. They last played in Week 15, in the last Thursday Night Football game of the season, and the Chargers won 27-20.

Denver’s offense has been held to less than 30 points just three times all season. Once was in a 27-17 victory against Kansas City. The other two both came against San Diego. Denver won at Qualcomm Stadium, 28-20 in November.

Statistically, San Diego shouldn’t be able to slow down Denver this well. They have the lowest ranked pass defense of the eight remaining playoff teams and are ranked fifth among those teams against the run.

I know Mike McCoy is an offensive coach; he was Peyton Manning’s offensive coordinator last year. But he’s a very good one and I’m sure that even in that one year he picked up on a few things that he’s been able to give to San Diego’s defensive coordinator John Pagano, who is a very good coach himself.

It’s funny it should happen that way. San Diego has really had Peyton Manning’s number in the past. In 13 career games against the Chargers, including the playoffs, Manning’s teams are just 7-6. In those games, Manning has thrown 28 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. And now it seems the Chargers are poised to steal his thunder once again.

Now, I do have to put out there that in both of Indianapolis’s playoff losses to San Diego Manning played very well, even the first one when he was picked off twice. A lot of Manning’s struggles against the Chargers came early in his career.

So on Sunday I think the biggest question mark, as it proved to be in last year’s divisional loss to Baltimore, is Denver’s defense. Wes Welker is back so Manning will have all his weapons, and Denver’s rushing offense is very good, too.

Can Denver’s defense contain Ryan Mathews? The Broncos had one of the league’s top run defenses in the regular season, and that was with Mathews and Jamaal Charles facing them twice each.

Even more importantly, can Denver take away Philip Rivers’ weapons? Keenan Allen only had six catches in his two games against Denver this season, but both of his receptions in that Week 15 meeting went for touchdowns. In fact, those were Rivers’ only two touchdown passes of the game. He only threw 20 times, completing just 12 passes, because the run game was so dominant.

Ryan Mathews shared the backfield with Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead in the first game against the Broncos, but in Week 15 he carried 29 times for 127 yards. Denver has to take away Mathews early or he’ll get into a rhythm and there will be no way to keep San Diego out of the red zone.

That brings me to the other big factor for this game. San Diego has been inconsistent all season in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. They did a great job last week in Cincinnati. Denver better have something to say about that or they could be in for a second straight one-and-done postseason.

But back to the issue to shutting down San Diego’s run game. It really was the killer in Denver’s loss to San Diego. The Chargers only scored one rushing touchdown. But it kept Denver’s defense on the field and Peyton Manning’s offense off it. San Diego’s time of possession was nearly 39 minutes in that game.

The Broncos’ defense has to get off the field if they want to win this game. If the time of possession hadn’t been so lopsided, the Chargers may not have held Denver to less than 30 points, and they may not have even scored the 27 points they did.

I will make my official prediction for this and the other three games in tomorrow’s blog post.

2014 Divisional Preview: Panthers vs 49ers

Cory Puffett

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

January 12 – 1:05pm (FOX)

Three of the Football Freaks voted this as the game of the week. I was one of them and now I get to tell you why this matchup excites me so much.

These two teams are nearly identical. I can’t remember ever seeing two teams so much alike in the same season. Both have quarterbacks who can make big plays with their arms or their legs. Both have very solid running backs. And San Francisco and Carolina each have similar strengths on defense.

I can explain in what ways Carolina is slightly better than San Francisco and in what facets of the game the 49ers are superior. But instead, let me use these stats I used earlier in the week to calculate my divisional round power rankings.

Of the eight remaining playoff teams:

• Against the run, Carolina is ranked 1^st, San Francisco is ranked 2^nd.
• Against the pass, Carolina is ranked 3^rd, San Francisco is ranked 4^th.
• In rushing offense, Carolina is ranked 4^th, San Francisco is ranked 1^st.
• In passing offense, Carolina is ranked 3^rd, San Francisco is ranked 4^th.

These teams are eerily similar, and it makes for a very exciting matchup that will be nearly impossible to predict. When two teams are this evenly matched, the game almost always comes down to turnovers, penalties, and who makes (or misses) a big play.

San Francisco running back Frank Gore is one of the best in the game. It is no coincidence that rushing offense is the one major statistical category in which the 49ers are better than the Panthers.

But my concern is Colin Kaepernick. He’s broken out of his “sophomore slump” – I know this is his third season in the league, just go with me here. But how will he stand up to this Carolina defense? He played poorly the first time they played, and that was at home in Candlestick. Sure, he’s won games against Seattle and Arizona since then, but he wasn’t dominant in either of those games.

Sunday’s matchup also features two of the best inside linebackers in the game today. Patrick Willis has been a pro bowler every year of his professional career, all the way back to his rookie season in 2007. Luke Kuechly should have made the pro bowl last year in his own rookie campaign, but nobody seemed to know who he was until he won defensive rookie of the year and people suddenly realized that he led the entire NFL in tackles.

Both teams should know how to defend against mobile quarterbacks. San Francisco has more offensive weapons in the pass game, especially now that Michael Crabtree is healthy and again a major part of the offense.

Like I said earlier, I can dissect each position to pieces. This game will most likely come down to who can take care of the ball and which team is able to avoid critical errors resulting in penalties or big plays.

I will make my official prediction tomorrow, along with my picks for the other three divisional games.

2014 Divisional Preview: Patriots vs Colts

Cory Puffett

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

January 11 – 8:15pm (CBS)

Andrew Luck truly is Captain Comeback. Take Peyton Manning’s two highest season totals for game winning drives, they only add up to three more than Andrew Luck’s. Fourth quarter comebacks are a different story, but Luck is still doing it earlier than Peyton ever did.

Take Tom Brady’s two highest season totals for either stat and they’re only one more than Luck’s through just his rookie and sophomore seasons.

The problem, though, with being Captain Comeback is that you have to trail first. There are two things wrong with that. One, you can’t come back every time. Two, if you find yourself with a lead in the fourth quarter you may not know what to do with it.

That second problem is what bothers me this weekend. New England is not going to put up a ton of points. Quote me on it; I’ll be eating my words if I’m wrong anyway so it’ll make no difference to me if you bring it up. If the Colts lead in the fourth quarter, and it’s not by at least ten points, look out. Not only may Indianapolis not know what to do with that lead, but also Tom Brady is dangerous in crunch time no matter who he has.

I’ve watched Tom Brady play with little offensive talent before. I’ve seen him look like a fool for three and a half quarters of a football game. But it doesn’t matter how badly he’s been playing, Tom Brady in the last five minutes of a ball game with a single-digit deficit is a “baaaad man,” to quote Stephen A Smith.

And the thing is, his receivers aren’t all that bad. Sure, it’d be nice if Deion Branch were out there for him instead of suiting up for Indy this weekend. But Danny Amendola is healthy. Julian Edelman is healthy. Kenbrell Thompkins is healthy. And Michael Hoomanawanui isn’t an awful tight end – he did have three touchdown catches his rookie season in St. Louis.

Aaron Dobson is questionable right now, but even without him I’ve seen worse receiving units than this, and this one actually has one of the all-time great quarterbacks to get them the ball.

New England also has a pretty solid group of running backs with Ridley, Vereen, Blount and Bolden. I’ll be looking for New England to use them to wear down the Colts early in the game to set up Brady for some late-game success if Indy’s offense can’t close the door.

For Indianapolis, Andrew Luck has to take advantage of Brandon Spikes going on injured reserve this week. He’s a big part of New England’s defense. With him out, there will be no need to force deep throws down the field, his check downs should rarely be covered.

It also creates an advantage in the run game for the Colts. Spikes is one of New England’s leading tacklers on the season and even though he’s not bad in pass coverage, run stopping is definitely his forte.

I don’t know much about the Patriots’ backup for Spikes, but I think it’s safe to assume that he won’t need to be the first guy the linemen go after when they block for Donald Brown, who is having a heckuva few weeks. The numbers may not look superb for him, but he’s going to have to be an integral part of Indy’s game plan if they want to play in this year’s AFC Championship game.

I will make my official prediction for this game on Friday. Tomorrow I will preview the two Sunday divisional round games.