Cory Puffett
San Diego Chargers at
Denver Broncos
January 12 – 4:40pm
(CBS)
They’re calling for highs in the mid-40s on Sunday and
temperatures shouldn’t dip below freezing until after the game ends. They’re
also calling for a lot of wind in Denver, but current forecasts show this game
falling in a much milder part of the day.
I bring that up only because this isn’t the game to read too much into Peyton Manning’s
cold-weather struggles. Unless weather conditions turn out to be more extreme
than expected, any failure on his part will be due to something else entirely.
This game received Eric’s vote for game of the week, and
it’s not hard to see why. Denver and San Diego have already faced off twice
this season, each taking a win in the other’s home stadium. They last played in
Week 15, in the last Thursday Night Football game of the season, and the
Chargers won 27-20.
Denver’s offense has been held to less than 30 points just
three times all season. Once was in a 27-17 victory against Kansas City. The
other two both came against San Diego. Denver won at Qualcomm Stadium, 28-20 in
November.
Statistically, San Diego shouldn’t be able to slow down
Denver this well. They have the lowest ranked pass defense of the eight
remaining playoff teams and are ranked fifth among those teams against the run.
I know Mike McCoy is an offensive coach; he was Peyton Manning’s offensive
coordinator last year. But he’s a very good one and I’m sure that even in that
one year he picked up on a few things that he’s been able to give to San
Diego’s defensive coordinator John Pagano, who is a very good coach himself.
It’s funny it should happen that way. San Diego has really
had Peyton Manning’s number in the past. In 13 career games against the
Chargers, including the playoffs, Manning’s teams are just 7-6. In those games,
Manning has thrown 28 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. And now it seems the
Chargers are poised to steal his thunder once again.
Now, I do have to put out there that in both of Indianapolis’s
playoff losses to San Diego Manning played very well, even the first one when
he was picked off twice. A lot of Manning’s struggles against the Chargers came
early in his career.
So on Sunday I think the biggest question mark, as it proved
to be in last year’s divisional loss to Baltimore, is Denver’s defense. Wes
Welker is back so Manning will have all his weapons, and Denver’s rushing
offense is very good, too.
Can Denver’s defense contain Ryan Mathews? The Broncos had
one of the league’s top run defenses in the regular season, and that was with Mathews
and Jamaal Charles facing them twice each.
Even more importantly, can Denver take away Philip Rivers’
weapons? Keenan Allen only had six catches in his two games against Denver this
season, but both of his receptions in that Week 15 meeting went for touchdowns.
In fact, those were Rivers’ only two touchdown passes of the game. He only
threw 20 times, completing just 12 passes, because the run game was so
dominant.
Ryan Mathews shared the backfield with Ronnie Brown and
Danny Woodhead in the first game against the Broncos, but in Week 15 he carried
29 times for 127 yards. Denver has to take away Mathews early or he’ll get into
a rhythm and there will be no way to keep San Diego out of the red zone.
That brings me to the other big factor for this game. San
Diego has been inconsistent all season in converting red zone opportunities
into touchdowns. They did a great job last week in Cincinnati. Denver better
have something to say about that or they could be in for a second straight
one-and-done postseason.
But back to the issue to shutting down San Diego’s run game.
It really was the killer in Denver’s loss to San Diego. The Chargers only
scored one rushing touchdown. But it kept Denver’s defense on the field and
Peyton Manning’s offense off it. San
Diego’s time of possession was nearly 39 minutes in that game.
The Broncos’ defense has
to get off the field if they want to win this game. If the time of possession
hadn’t been so lopsided, the Chargers may not have held Denver to less than 30
points, and they may not have even scored the 27 points they did.
I will make my official prediction for this and the other
three games in tomorrow’s blog post.
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