Divisional Round Preview: Broncos vs Ravens

Game 1:

Saturday, January 12, 2013

4:30pm – CBS

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

Von Miller (58) and Ed Reed (20) will be key to their teams' defensive
game plans. Miller will have to slow down Ray Rice while Reed will try
to confuse Manning in coverage. Photo credit to ESPN.

Peyton Manning is in uncharted territory in many ways. This is his first postseason playing in anything but white and blue. It is also the first time he played all 60 minutes of all 17 games during the season and still got a first round bye. In addition, he has a solid defense, and a run game, for once.

So it should not come as much surprise that I am picking his Broncos to win at home against the Baltimore Ravens. But let’s get more specific about why they will win this game.

I have yet to see four solid quarters in a single game from Joe Flacco in the second half of this season. He made some strides last week by playing very well in the second half, and his receivers made up for a mediocre first half. That, however, will not be enough against the Broncos.

Denver’s defense ranks in the top 3 in the NFL against both the run and the pass, so don’t expect Anquan Boldin or anyone else to be able to save Joe Flacco if his passes aren’t on point. With Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller coming at him, I don’t expect Flacco to have a fun day in Denver.

Ray Rice is what will keep Baltimore in this one. Denver has a tendency to over-pursue at times, and Rice has the athleticism and awareness to take advantage of that. Still, there is only so much you can do if the run game is the only thing you can establish.

Baltimore’s defense tends to give Peyton Manning fits. He has not touched 300 passing yards in any of his last seven meetings with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Despite that, he has not lost in any of those seven games. I think Manning will prove to be the most valuable player in this game, but not based on stats. It will be his ability to read Baltimore’s defensive coverages and effectively use Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman that will prove his worth to Denver’s offense.

Usually in a matchup between Manning and this defense, I would pick a low final score, but Denver’s defense is much better than anything Indianapolis ever had while he was there. I think they will create some scoring opportunities Manning normally wouldn’t have.

Puff’s Pick:

Baltimore Ravens – 13

Denver Broncos – 27

MVP: Peyton Manning