Divisional Round Preview: Broncos vs Ravens

Game 1:

Saturday, January 12, 2013

4:30pm – CBS

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

Von Miller (58) and Ed Reed (20) will be key to their teams' defensive
game plans. Miller will have to slow down Ray Rice while Reed will try
to confuse Manning in coverage. Photo credit to ESPN.

Peyton Manning is in uncharted territory in many ways. This is his first postseason playing in anything but white and blue. It is also the first time he played all 60 minutes of all 17 games during the season and still got a first round bye. In addition, he has a solid defense, and a run game, for once.

So it should not come as much surprise that I am picking his Broncos to win at home against the Baltimore Ravens. But let’s get more specific about why they will win this game.

I have yet to see four solid quarters in a single game from Joe Flacco in the second half of this season. He made some strides last week by playing very well in the second half, and his receivers made up for a mediocre first half. That, however, will not be enough against the Broncos.

Denver’s defense ranks in the top 3 in the NFL against both the run and the pass, so don’t expect Anquan Boldin or anyone else to be able to save Joe Flacco if his passes aren’t on point. With Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller coming at him, I don’t expect Flacco to have a fun day in Denver.

Ray Rice is what will keep Baltimore in this one. Denver has a tendency to over-pursue at times, and Rice has the athleticism and awareness to take advantage of that. Still, there is only so much you can do if the run game is the only thing you can establish.

Baltimore’s defense tends to give Peyton Manning fits. He has not touched 300 passing yards in any of his last seven meetings with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Despite that, he has not lost in any of those seven games. I think Manning will prove to be the most valuable player in this game, but not based on stats. It will be his ability to read Baltimore’s defensive coverages and effectively use Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman that will prove his worth to Denver’s offense.

Usually in a matchup between Manning and this defense, I would pick a low final score, but Denver’s defense is much better than anything Indianapolis ever had while he was there. I think they will create some scoring opportunities Manning normally wouldn’t have.

Puff’s Pick:

Baltimore Ravens – 13

Denver Broncos – 27

MVP: Peyton Manning

Thursday Night Football Afterword: Raiders vs Broncos

After a high-profile NFC South matchup last week, TNF went
back to low-profile games with this AFC West matchup.
Photo credit to NFL Network.

The game wasn’t really all that memorable outside of some benchmarks Peyton Manning reached over the course of the affair in Oakland.

In 2004, Jake Plummer tied John Elway’s franchise record for touchdown passes in a season at 27. Eight years later, Manning has 30 so far, his seventh season with that many, and he has three games to go.

Manning also threw his 5,000^th completion, second all-time, during the game.

More importantly, Manning led the Broncos to their eighth straight victory. Though it was less impressive due to Oakland’s low run defense rank, Denver made it a point to use Knowshon Moreno, who carried the ball 32 times with Ronnie Hillman spelling him for four carries. Manning threw the ball 36 times, so it was an extraordinarily balanced attack for a Peyton Manning-led offense.

Denver’s primary focus over the next three games is to continue to show improvement from one week to the next. The semi-close final score of 26-13 doesn’t really show how thoroughly Denver beat Oakland last night. Manning threw for over 300 yards while Moreno and Hillman combined for nearly 150 rushing yards and nearly four yards per carry.

Denver is not pleased with the final result though. When you gain that kind of yardage and give up less than 300 passing yards and fewer than 75 rushing yards, you expect to win by more than 13 points.

Manning made one particularly bad throw in the red zone which kept the score from being a little more indicative of the kind of game Denver played. He had to adjust his release very quickly but ended up severely under-throwing his receiver on what should have been an easy touchdown pass. Phillip Adams made an excellent play on the ball and managed to pick it off.

This was the second time in three weeks that Denver played a bad AFC West opponent – they played Kansas City in Week 12 – and seemingly barely skated by with a victory. They played much better last night than they did against the Chiefs, but they also were not pleased with last night’s game and know that it isn’t the kind of game that equates to playoff victories when you have New England and Houston to go up against.

The Broncos will come over to Maryland next Sunday to play the Ravens before heading back home for what should be easy wins against the Browns and Chiefs. With the schedule winding down, next week’s matchup will be a good indication of how much the easy schedule in the second half of this season has affected Denver’s ability to play good teams. They will be watching closely as the Ravens take on the Redskins in Landover this Sunday.

Thanks for reading everyone and enjoy the rest of Week 14. I’ll be back Monday with my Sunday Afterwords!