Championship Sunday, Pt. I

Each season, six out of the total 16 teams in each conference qualify for the postseason. Of the twelve teams in the postseason, eight are division winners, the other four qualifiers making it based on record. With just two teams remaining in each conference, this Sunday is one of the most anticipated days of each year in football. Nearly every year, one of the two games played on this day is considered “the actual championship game.” Will that be the case this year? Will one of these games be the most competitive game of the year? Or will this be just to great games leading into the ultimate Super Bowl matchup? The winners of these two Conference Championship games will play for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLV. Let’s take a look at the matchups.

Game 1:

Sunday, January 23, 2011
3:00pm – FOX

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Many consider this to be the game to watch on Sunday. A lot has been put into the storied rivalry between these two franchises. Over a 90-year history of playing each other, Green Bay and Chicago have met an NFL record 181 times (not including preseason). The Bears lead the all-time series and won the only other postseason matchup between these two teams, back in 1941 in a game that vaulted them to their sixth NFL Championship appearance. They would win for the fourth time against the Giants that year.

However, while history has been known to repeat itself from time to time, when the factors contributing to the game are all very different, the chances of that happening are a little less. The Bears have a good rushing attack and Jay Cutler played very well last week against the Seahawks, throwing two TD passes and rushing for two more.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers defense both performed at the highest level against a team that was nearly unstoppable in the Georgia Dome all season. I have to pick a winner for this game, but I’ve been going back and forth all week on this game.

Ultimately, I think I have to pick the Packers. Green Bay responded every time the Falcons got any kind of attack going. Their defense put the nail in the coffin at the end of the first half with a pick-6 to take a 28-14 lead. The offense nailed it in during the second half, as they could do no wrong. Aaron Rodgers is easily the best quarterback remaining in the postseason right now. He has 22 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in his last nine games. He can run, and is starting to make a name for himself as one of the most dangerous quarterbacks when he tucks it and runs. On 1st & 10 on ESPN this week, one of the analysts said that Rodgers is an even more dangerous runner than Michael Vick. I hesitate to agree with that, but he certainly isn’t far off. He is the complete package as a quarterback.

The Packers defense is really coming together this postseason. The Bears have a good run game, but if the Packers can contain that, and I think they can, the Bears will have to pass against one of the better pass defenses in the league.

Another thing I like about the Packers is that they have a killer instinct. The Falcons were already essentially out of the game by the end of the 3rd quarter last week and the Packers continued attacking.

The Bears, meanwhile, got a big 28-0 lead and then let it slip away. Granted one of the touchdowns for Seattle took a lot of luck and a bad roll of a Chicago defender’s hands, but Cutler threw a late interception and the Bears didn’t get away with as much as they should have based on how they did early in the game. The Bears will put up a fight this weekend, but I think they will falter down the stretch.

All this is a long and very detailed way of saying that I don’t think this game is the game to watch this weekend. It should be exciting early, but I don’t expect this to be another low scoring matchup like in week 17. I don’t expect the Packers to blow the Bears out in Chicago, but I think they will have a fairly comfortable margin of victory.

My pick: Green Bay beats Chicago, 34-23