Four teams are done until (at least) the 2011 season. Eight teams remain, the four winners from last week and the four teams who earned at least one home postseason game and a Wild-Card bye. I decided not to write earlier in the week about the first round games. Instead I will use a brief analysis of the winners as I discuss my picks for this weekend, the Divisional Round of the 2010 NFL Postseason.
Game 2:
Saturday, January 15, 2011
8:00pm – FOX
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay’s 21-16 victory over Vick and the Eagles in their Wild-Card meeting last Sunday was not as close as the score suggests. Sure the Eagles were never out of the game, but the Packers also controlled the ball much better than Philadelphia did. Still, no one should count out Atlanta in tomorrow’s matchup.
Matt Ryan, in his third year, has done what I expected him to do, though perhaps not so soon, which is to take his team to the top of the NFC. With home field advantage, the Falcons will look to make the most of this opportunity to make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since their 34-19 loss to Denver in Super Bowl XXXIII (on January 31, 1999).
However, Aaron Rodgers is playing as good at Quarterback as just about anyone in the league, except possibly Tom Brady, and their defense may very well be the strongest of any remaining playoff team right now. With just three players holding onto the spotlight the Packers can contain the pass and stall any rushing efforts. My pick for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl will almost definitely come from this game. But which of these two teams do I chose to make it to the Conference Championship? This is not an easy pick.
The Packers might be obvious to some, and it appears that to many they are. But don’t rule out the Falcons. Ryan is showing signs of a top-notch NFL Quarterback, and with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez being very capable of getting open for him, the Packers defense will certainly be tested. In addition, Michael Turner rushed for over 1300 yards this season, which is no small task. He is also very protective of the ball. Don’t expect him to put the ball on the ground in this one.
Last week the Packers did a great job of containing Mike Vick, exactly what I expected them to do. But what Vick lacks and Matt Ryan has is a quick release. Vick spent this season learning to be a little more of a pocket passer and a little less of a scrambler. Matt Ryan already has a quick release, so rushing him with Hawk and Matthews may prove to be rather ineffective. And if they are dropping into coverage, or even just acting as spies, Turner should be able to rip off a lot of 3-4 yard gains with the occasional big run mixed in.
Last week Starks had a huge game on the ground for Green Bay. It remains to be seen how much they will use him this weekend, but I think it can be assumed that they won’t make a total switch to Brandon Jackson. When you have a weapon who is just coming into his own, you use him as long as he provides you with an upper hand. The Falcons have a strong rush defense, but their pass defense has some holes. Expect the Packers to use the run more to set up the pass than to actually run through Atlanta. Though the Falcons are known to give up the occasional big play on the ground, more often than not the home run will come through the air, and that is Green Bay’s strong point anyway.
The Falcons will give the Packers hell, but I’m not sure that will be enough. Matt Ryan clearly has what it takes to be very successful in the NFL, but he may have to wait another year or two before taking Atlanta to the top.
My pick:
Green Bay beats Atlanta, 34-24
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