This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually, in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.
Game 1:
Saturday, January 8, 2011
4:30pm - NBC
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
All week people have said this will be a blowout, but I have a different take on this game. I agree with people who say the Seahawks do not deserve to be in the postseason, but, as Pete Carroll put it, “I never complained about the BCS system, I won’t complain about this system. There were good teams who should have made it to this point but the system didn’t allow it.”
Though they may not deserve it, the Seahawks earned this spot and this home game fair and square, and don’t expect them to let themselves fall out of this game too early. I still fully expect the Saints to advance to the Divisional round, but I don’t think it will be as easy a game as many people think it will be.
Carroll announced late Thursday that Matt Hasselbeck will be ready to start on Saturday, and this is good news for Seahawks fans. Charlie Whitehurst brought a great amount of athleticism to the Seahawks, but he lacks the overall skills needed of a Quarterback with plans to take his team on a Super Bowl run. Hasselbeck has been there, he has the skills and experience and so matches up well against Drew Brees.
That said, the Seahawks lack something that may leave them at a disadvantage. I felt the Rams would have matched up better against the Saints. Sam Bradford is an incredibly accurate QB and was able to give the Rams some big play ability, something that allows teams to stretch the defense. In addition to Bradford, they had receivers who were able to get open down field and finish off the big plays. While Hasselbeck has the ability to stretch defenses, I don’t think the Seahawks have a receiving corps that will be able to stretch the Saints’ defense. And if they can’t stretch the defense, Marshawn Lynch may find it a bit more difficult to run against New Orleans than it was against St. Louis.
So the Seahawks may have to rely on the passing game. They will need to be very methodical in picking apart Gregg Williams’ defense, finding open receivers underneath the corners, mixing in some runs and play action to keep the defense from keying in too much.
More importantly, if Seattle wants a realistic shot of winning this game, they will need to force turnovers. Brees has been having a lot more trouble this season not committing turnovers than he did last year. When faced with pressure, he is so against taking a sack that he will force passes that, more often than not, end up as interceptions. The Seahawks need to get pressure on Brees and force him into bad throws.
They also need to watch out for screens. With their two leading rushers out due to injury, the Saints will be turning to Reggie Bush, who was injured for a fair portion of the season. He has been back since Thanksgiving, but hasn’t played as well as he did earlier in his career. I don’t expect them to try to run him more than they need to, but they will be looking to get him into the open field, which is one place he is still very dangerous to be. Look for them to set up some screens and maybe play action to the fullback with a quick toss out to Bush out in the flat.
If the Saints want to win this game by a large margin, they will need to find a way to keep people away from Brees. It is the one area of his game Brees struggles in. If he has time and protection, he is all but impossible to stop. His accuracy is deadly, and that applies to any distance down the field. He can pick the defense apart, he can stretch it out, and if there is good coverage he can scramble to pick up a few yards.
Another way to get a big win in Seattle is to get some big plays early and take the 12th man out of the game. Of course, the defense will need to hold back any attacks by the Seahawks or the crowd will be all too ready to get right back into the game. But this is one of the toughest crowds to play as the visiting team against. The Saints have done well away from home with a 6-2 away record this season, but this will be a tougher crowd than anyone the Saints have had to deal with this season.
I don’t see the Saints’ defense being a huge problem, unless they are on the field too long. The offense needs to be converting first downs to keep the defense resting, because the Saints get sloppy opposite the ball when they get tired. That’s when Hasselbeck will be dangerous and the Seahawks may be able to claw back into the game.
As much as I think this will be a closer game than expected, I fully expect the Saints to go in, handle Seattle’s 12th Man, and get the win. Even if Seattle hangs with them early, they don’t have the skills to run with the Saints down the stretch, as long as New Orleans avoids mistakes.
My pick:
New Orleans beats Seattle, 31-20
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