Divisional Round, Pt. IV

Four teams are done until (at least) the 2011 season. Eight teams remain, the four winners from last week and the four teams who earned at least one home postseason game and a Wild-Card bye. I decided not to write earlier in the week about the first round games. Instead I will use a brief analysis of the winners as I discuss my picks for this weekend, the Divisional Round of the 2010 NFL Postseason.

Game 4:

Sunday, January 16, 2011
4:30pm – CBS

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

So both AFC Divisional playoff matchups this weekend involve division rivals, and once again they are teams who split their regular season meetings 1-1.

In their first meeting, back in week 2, Brady threw his first two interceptions of the season (two of the four he would end up throwing) and Sanchez was nearly perfect as he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions. Don’t forget that the entire second half was played with Darrelle Revis and the Jets still won 28-14. Then the series went to New England in week 13. Brady could do no wrong (4 TD, 0 INT) and Sanchez could do no right (0 TD, 3 INT). 45-3 was the final score in that game.

The Jets have to lay off the blitzing. Use the front line to get a little pressure on Brady and spread the linebackers out. Don’t play them in man-to-man though, the linebackers need to be in zone coverage so they can come in to stop the run. Green-Ellis and Woodhead (not to be confused with whoever Joe Theismann was trying to talk about on No Huddle) are too dangerous to expect the defensive line to contain them. Brady will throw a lot of passes, but he’s just as content to let the running game take care of things.

Another reason to keep the linebackers fairly close to the line of scrimmage is because Brady hates, I mean hates taking deep shots. Sure he has Welker and Branch, but they’re both only 5-9 and not a viable option for a deep pass unless they get complete separation. Brady prefers to throw short dump passes (though he has earned it, this is the main reason his no-interception streak has gone on as long as it has) to guys with open space. Hernandez and Gronkowski have been his favorite targets for the past few weeks. The Jets have to find a way to neutralize them, or at least not give them extra open space. This will force Brady to look elsewhere. When he is forced to look for other people when he wasn’t expecting to, Brady makes mistakes. Usually he is still able to keep the ball away from the defenders, but sometimes he ends up keeping it away from his receivers, too. Even if they can’t force any interceptions, forcing incompletions and keeping Brady off the field will be a big help toward any hope of advancing in the postseason.

The other key will be Mark Sanchez’s play. Against Indianapolis last week he was a bit erratic, with many of his passes sailing high and over his receiver’s heads. The biggest reason they won was the long drive in the 4th quarter that kept the ball out of Manning’s hands. They have to do the same to Brady. Also, a timeout in the closing minutes of the game allowed the Jets to tell Sanchez that Braylon Edwards was wide open on the right side of the field. And even then Sanchez almost botched it by making Edwards rocket upwards to come down with it along the sideline. Sanchez has to figure out what was causing that issue, whether it was his stride or his nerves, and get it fixed. If he can’t do that, this won’t even be a game.

The Patriots are the favorite to win, and many argue that this New England team is better than the 2007 Patriots. I’m not sure if I would go so far as to say all that, but they are talented and very capable of winning the Super Bowl this year. If that happens Brady will become the third Quarterback to win four Super Bowl rings (Bradshaw and Montana).

Ultimately, I think this game will put Jets players’ (such as Antonio Cromartie’s) foots where they belong…in their mouths. Rex Ryan can get away with it, though I’m not sure how. If he feels he’s spent enough time game planning to hold press conferences so he can publicly trash talk about the Patriots, so be it. But after that 45-3 thrashing in week 13, the Jets players should be spending way more time on the practice field and with their trainers than in front of the cameras.

In Rex Ryan’s two years in New York, the home team has won every time these two teams have met, and I don’t expect this meeting to be any exception.

My pick:

New England beats New York, 41-26