This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually, in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.
Game 2:
Saturday, January 8, 2011
8:00pm - NBC
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
This is a tough one to choose. If the Jets are going to win this game, they may have to rely on their defense to do so, which is no easy task when Peyton Manning is the Quarterback you’re facing. With players like Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie playing opposite two of Manning’s weapons, the Jets match up better against the Colts than most teams in the NFL. But Manning will look for Jacob Tamme underneath, and then use his accuracy to exploit any missed strides by the Jets’ secondary. As Rex Ryan described his ability, “Manning can go into a play with three options and find a fourth.”
The biggest problem this game poses for the Jets is their offense. Sanchez was looking very good early in the year, then he started faltering and it took some last-second miracles to pull out a few games. Over the past few weeks, he has not been good at all. He has a few decent drives, but he can’t keep it up throughout the game. If the Colts can contain the pass early, they will be able to focus on the run more and more as the game goes on. The Colts worst defense comes against the run, but only when they have to worry about a good pass attack. When they don’t have to worry too much about the pass, they actually do a decent job of containing the run.
In addition, over the past few weeks the Colts have vastly improved their own rushing offense. It has helped Manning get over his mid-season breakdown and he is back to playing lights-out football.
One thing that does bode well for the Jets is the Colts’ inability to put games away. The Colts have not won a game, this season, by more than 10 points since weeks two and three when they beat the Giants by 24 and then the Broncos by 14. This allows for a chance that another last-minute drive could net the Jets a win in Lucas Oil Stadium.
Now, one thing that has kept people’s attention is the belief that, because the Colts had to win out to get into the postseason, it may give them a better chance to make it to the Super Bowl, but that isn’t true. Yes, the last time they won the big game they had to go through the Wild-Card round. But Manning is no stranger to this round of the postseason. Since being drafted, this will be Manning’s 7th Wild-Card appearance. Of his previous six Wild-Card games, he has won just three. Once, they won the Super Bowl after having done so. But each of the other two times the Colts would ultimately lose to the Patriots, who are, for good reason, widely considered the best team in the NFL this year.
In addition, of the two times the Colts have been in the postseason after posting a 10-6 regular season record with Manning at QB, the Colts have lost in the Wild-Card game two times. The Dolphins beat them in the 2000 Wild-Card game in overtime, and the Jets destroyed the Colts in the same round of the 2002 postseason, 41-0.
It is not out of the question for the Jets to come away with a big win, though 41-0 is highly unlikely. But to do so, their secondary needs to be perfect. If they allow Manning one shot down field, he’ll be able to get several more. That’s how Manning plays. One big play gives him such a boost that he finds ways to get more downfield shots, and he does it with ease. The Jets have to shut that down. They also need to get pressure in Manning’s face. The Colts’ offensive line is not filled with great pass blockers. They are only good when the pressure comes from the outside. They can pick that up easily; Manning can step up into the pocket and deliver a great throw. If the Jets rush straight at Manning, the offensive line will break down much more quickly and they will get some hits on the Colts’ prize Quarterback.
Manning has been haunted by history throughout his career. He has historically been a better regular season player than a postseason hero, so the question is: is this the year to put this all behind?
My answer comes easily: no. I have no doubt Manning will be back in the Super Bowl, but not this year. Injuries keep the Colts out of the Super Bowl, and the inability to close out games may keep them from advancing. Ultimately, though, I think Manning will be able to get the Colts to Heinz Field for a divisional round matchup against the Steelers. The Jets cannot play perfect defense, and their offense isn’t strong enough to pick apart the ailing Colts defense.
My pick:
Indianapolis beats New York, 23-13
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