Wild-Card, Pt. III

This is it. It’s Wild-Card weekend in the NFL. I am going to break down each game individually, in its own post, so be sure to check out the other three parts. You can find each of the other three posts to the right of this one. Just find the link for each one, click on it, and read on. Here we go.

Game 3:

Sunday, January 9, 2011
1:00pm - CBS

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

This is a tough game to analyze, much less predict. The Ravens have won six of their last seven games. Kansas City, meanwhile, is coming off two blowout losses in their last four games.

If Kansas City is going to win, they need to find a way to get blockers down field and keep Ray Lewis off their running backs. If the Chiefs can’t get Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles rolling on the ground, the Ravens will have plenty of fun defending against Matt Cassel, who has had some great games, but primarily when they succeed in the running game.

Of course, there are also many questions surrounding Joe Flacco. He is a talented player, but he seems to lose confidence easily after very minor mistakes. The more confidence he loses, the poorer he plays. Kansas City’s best chance may come through shutting Flacco and the Baltimore passing game down.

The Ravens’ pass defense ranks in the bottom half of the league, but their rushing defense was number five in the league this year, and that poses a huge problem for Kansas City. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have a pass defense that ranks right in the middle of the league, and their rushing defense ranks around the same. This gives Baltimore the advantage on paper.

But games are rarely won as simply as they are on paper. The Chiefs have a great offensive line geared toward the run. They should have little difficulty keeping the Ravens’ defensive line away from the running backs, so Baltimore will be relying on their linebackers to stop the run. On the other side, the Chiefs defensive line has faltered over the past couple weeks, getting pushed around up front and allowing holes to open that even I could find from the backfield.

Ray Rice should have a big day against the Chiefs, and barring any mental breakdowns, will open up opportunities for Flacco to find his receivers, especially over the middle.

A key to winning for the Chiefs will be play action. But they need to be effective in selling the run. They need to get the linebackers biting on the fakes early so they don’t step up as quickly when Kansas City actually does run the ball. In other words, the Chiefs need to find a way to use the pass to set up the run.

The Ravens have a much simpler task. They just need to keep Cassel from making good throws early. If they can do that, they take away the Chiefs’ ability to set up the running game. Kansas City will start relying too much on the run and the Chiefs could fall out of this game early.

My pick:

Baltimore beats Kansas City, 24-14