Peyton Worse in Postseason?

Peyton Manning walks off the field after his most recent playoff one-and-done,
the eighth of his career. Photo credit to The Washington Post.

A few days ago, as I thought about what I wanted to write on this hump-day between the Divisional Round and the Conference Championships, I started seeing a lot of nonsense on Facebook and on Twitter about how ‘overrated’ Peyton Manning.

I kind of wanted to rant about how ridiculous that statement it, but everyone is entitled to his or her opinion. I, for example, think that Tom Brady is a bit overrated. I think he is absolutely one of the five greatest NFL quarterbacks of all time, but I think many people make him out to be more than he is. I’ve probably been guilty of overrating Manning at times in the past.

So rather than ranting about people calling Manning ‘overrated,’ I want to cover a different nonsensical statement I saw from a few people about Manning, that he is probably the greatest regular season quarterback of all time but chokes in the playoffs.

I will provide a few tables of stats that I have put together through research of my own, mostly through this fantastic website. I will also provide my thoughts on what these numbers mean, but it is up to you do decide how you interpret them.

Since 2004, when trailing by 14-or-fewer points and with less than 10 minutes left in regulation, Peyton Manning has thrown:

	Regular Season	Postseason
Interceptions	8	2

Most of what I will show you in this will include percentages, but it is pretty obvious that he has thrown interceptions in this situation in a much smaller percentage of his regular season games than postseason games. But remember that every game in the postseason is against a good team. If you only consider regular season games against good teams, the percentages become much more similar.

Most Interceptions in a Game

Peyton Manning’s worse game was on November 11, 2007 when he threw 6 interceptions against the San Diego Chargers and lost 23-21.

He has thrown 4 interceptions on four occasions and is 0-4, losing by an average of 13.5 points. His only such game in the postseason was a 24-14 loss in New England on January 18, 2004.

On thirteen occasions, Manning has thrown 3 interceptions, and is 2-11 in such games, being outscored by an average of 10 points. He is, however, 1-0 in the postseason when he throws three picks, a 23-8 victory over Kansas City on January 6, 2007.

Finally, when throwing 2 interceptions, Peyton Manning is 19-25 and is outscored by an average of 1.14 points. He is also 1-3 in such postseason games, losing by an average of 9.75 points. His lone postseason win with two picks was a 15-6 victory over Baltimore on January 13, 2007.

Again, most of this is up for interpretation, but the next section should help you to at least see that Peyton is not all that different a quarterback in the postseason from who he is in the regular season.

Percentage of Games with Interceptions

	Regular Season	Postseason
1+ Interception	58%*	60%
2+ Interceptions	25%*	30%
3+ Interceptions	7%*	10%

When looking at all of these statistics, you will likely notice that the numbers slightly favor the Regular Season in every, or at least almost every, circumstance. But there are two things to consider as you interpret these numbers. First, as I mentioned before, remember that there are a lot of games against poor teams that help offset poor performances in regular season games. Also, remember that in the regular season, there is almost always a game the next week for Peyton to bounce back from; a bad game and a loss in the postseason means no next week to show better numbers. Despite both of those considerations, the numbers remain close.

Percentage of Games with Touchdowns

	Regular Season	Postseason
1+ Touchdown	88%*	80%
2+ Touchdowns	60%*	35%
3+ Touchdowns	33%*	30%

Here, there is one set of numbers that stands out and that is a fairly big disparity in two-touchdown games. But you’ll also notice that when you get to the next level, three touchdowns in a game, the numbers are very similar again. While he has six games with between three and five touchdowns in the postseason, he only has one with exactly two touchdowns.

But touchdown passes was already a statistic people know shows disparity from the regular season to the postseason to Peyton. But you will see in a moment that it is the only major one.

Other Stats

	Regular Season	Postseason
Completion %	65.2%*	63.2%
Pass Yards/Game	266	284*
Attempts/TD	17.9*	23.8
Attempts/INT	37.3*	36.2
Yards/Attempt	7.6*	7.5
Yards/Comp	11.7	11.8*
Comp % of 65+	50% of games	55% of games*

Conclusion

In every statistic, except for touchdowns and passing yards per game, the results are nearly identical. Peyton is slightly better in the regular season, but again we are working with a much smaller sample size from the postseason. But his touchdown numbers are significantly better in the regular season and his yards/game numbers are a little better in the postseason.

But he does not throw interceptions in critical situations more in the postseason than in the regular season. He does not have multi-interceptions games more often in the postseason than in the regular season.

Manning has said that he does not prepare any more vigorously for postseason games than for regular season games. If that is true, we expect to see similar numbers in most categories, which we do.

My interpretation of these statistics is that he does not choke in the postseason. If you want to believe he is a bad postseason quarterback, go for it. But you can’t say he is a great regular season quarterback but fails to get the job done in January.