Game 2:
Saturday, January 5, 2013
8:00pm – NBC
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
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| Christian Ponder struggled at Lambeau in Week 13, and I don't expect much to change Saturday. Photo credit to the Star Tribune. |
In Week 17, I picked the Packers to beat the Vikings and got
burned on my pick. I’m at it again this week.
Adrian Peterson ran for 199 yard in Minnesota’s Week 17 win
at home against Green Bay and for 210 yards in a Week 13 losing effort on the
Packers’ home turf, where Saturday’s game will be held. Adrian Peterson will
not be the difference this time around, just like he wasn’t in either of the
last two games.
How far this team goes rests on Christian Ponder. Peterson
will run for a lot of yards, as he always does, and I don’t expect Green Bay to
slow him down any more than they did in their two previous meetings. But the
difference in the two games was Ponder.
In their Week 13 meeting in Green Bay, where they will play
this Saturday, Ponder completed less than 50% of his passes, had one touchdown
pass and threw two interceptions. Peterson had his 210 yards on 21 carries and
a score of his own. But Green Bay came out on top, 23-14.
Last week couldn’t have been much more different for
Minnesota. Peterson ran for 199 yards on 34 attempts and had one touchdown run,
no better than in the first game. But Christian threw three touchdown passes
and no interceptions.
When Ponder does not throw an interception, the Vikings are
7-1. When he doesn’t turn the ball over at all, they are 5-0. But he does turn
the ball over, and he hasn’t had back-to-back games in which he hasn’t turned
the ball over since wins over San Francisco and Detroit in Weeks 3 and 4.
The thing that bothers me the most about the Vikings is
their track record on the road this year. They are 7-1 at home vs 3-5 as a
visiting team. Their defense gives up roughly the same number of points
regardless of the venue, but they score five fewer points as a visiting team.
This is the sort of opponent that Aaron Rodgers can eat
alive. It won’t help that they are calling for light snow in Green Bay on
Saturday. If nothing else, the high is supposed to be in the single-digits, and
will be much colder by 8 p.m.
The Packers know Peterson will get yards, but on defense they
will simply contain him. They will let him get the yards, but force them to go
to Ponder when they get close to scoring. They did this effectively in both of
the past two games. In Week 13, in Green Bay, it worked in their favor. Ponder
came through last week, but I don’t trust him to play that well in consecutive
games.
Puff’s Pick:
Minnesota Vikings – 17
Green Bay Packers –
31
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