Divisional Round Preview: 49ers vs Packers

Game 2:

Saturday, January 12, 2013

8:00pm – FOX

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

Since Kaepernick took over as starting QB in San Francisco, Randy Moss (84)
and Michael Crabtree have enjoyed advanced roles in the 49ers' offense.
Photo credit to Bleacher Report.

When I started digging deep into this matchup to come up with a prediction, I had to fight the urge to go back and look at Week 1. These are two completely different teams than they were at that time. The 49ers have a new starting quarterback and the Packers are suffering through their annual late-season injury onslaught.

I also had to avoid using last year’s playoff matchup between San Francisco and New Orleans as a basis for predicting a shootout. It has the feel of a similar matchup, but San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick is very different than with Alex Smith, and Green Bay is different than New Orleans for obvious reasons.

I’m predicting a mostly one-sided affair. The Packers will put up some points, but Colin Kaepernick has played his best games this season on the biggest stages – against Chicago on a Monday night, in New Orleans in a Sunday early evening matchup, and of course in New England on a Sunday night.

Between Kaepernick and Frank Gore – the only running back not named Adrian Peterson who topped 100 rushing yards against the Packers this season – Green Bay’s defense will likely get torched.

I’m not ready to assume Green Bay’s newfound ground attack will be available Saturday night, especially given San Francisco’s run defense. In fact, San Francisco’s defense, overall, will be very difficult for even Aaron Rodgers to pick apart.

Aldon Smith will finally have his setup man, Justin Smith, back on the line. Justin allows Aldon to get free rushing the passer and his absence has resulted in decreased production on the line from Aldon.

In my preview for the San Francisco/New Orleans game last year, I said it had the makings of an ‘Instant Classic.’ I’m not getting that vibe in this matchup.

Puff’s Pick:

Green Bay Packers – 14

San Francisco 49ers – 37

MVP: Frank Gore