Sunday, January 20, 2013
6:30pm – CBS
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
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| In a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, the Patriots make their franchise's ninth appearance while the Ravens make their fourth. The Patriots won last year, 23-20. |
Ravens fans are clearly confident in their defense,
and they have good reason to be. As far as I’m concerned, Baltimore’s defense
matches up with New England’s offense just as well as it did earlier this
season and in last year’s AFC Championship.
Joe Flacco, for as much as I give him a lot of grief, always
shows up against New England. Despite a 1-2 record against them in his career,
he has a Passer Rating of 103.0 in those games. The only team he’s faced
multiple times and has a better rating against is the Miami Dolphins.
In those three starts against New England, Flacco has 931, 7
touchdown passes and just 2 interceptions. I’ll buy him putting up another big
game this weekend, especially with how well Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith have
been playing lately.
Tom Brady, on the other hand, has 5 touchdown passes and 3
interceptions in five career starts against Baltimore. In addition, the conference
championship round is by far his worst of the postseason. He may be 5-1 in these
games, but he’s thrown 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on his way to just a 78.4
passer rating in the AFC Championship.
The more I think about this pick, the less nervous I am
about it. I fully understand why New England is such a big favorite in this
game, and I won’t be shocked if they win. But I think Baltimore has all the
tools to go into New England and beat the Patriots, just like they beat them in
Baltimore earlier this season.
Puff’s Pick:
Baltimore Ravens – 20
New England Patriots – 17
Follow me on Twitter @cpuffnfl and on my Puff on the NFL Facebook Page.
good stuff buddy
ReplyDeleteThank you!
DeleteWhat about Baltimore's defense inspires confidence to you? It it a year older than last year, and ranks much worse against the run, and lost Webb at cornerback. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense can run the ball much better, and does it more often. If the Raven's do man coverage, they will get burned by Hernandez and potentially Welker, as well as the run game, since they would probably be playing nickel. If they play more zone, 4-3 or 3-4, Welker and Lloyd can find the soft spots, as well as running backs on swing routes, and screens.
ReplyDeleteThe Patriots defense meanwhile is much improved from both last year, and the week three matchup. Though they give up a lot of yards, the team is number 1 in turnover differential, and 9th in scoring defense. McCourty has been moved to safety, where he is much better, and Talib can be a 1v1 man corner. They can stop the run very well, as evidenced by the two Texans games. In addition, while they were burned by deep passes early in the season, they have gotten much better against that. With the Broncos being thrown against so easily last week by the Ravens, I'm pretty sure Belichick would focus on that a ton in practice.
The only thing I am afraid of is Baltimore being kryptonite v2.0, like the Giants. I think they are too old and don't have quite a good enough pass rush though. Though Ray Lewis' retirement will give them a boost, I still think the Patriots can pull it off.
Patriots 31
Ravens 25
Yes, the Ravens defense is a year older, and with how old some of the players are, that is no small deal. But keep in mind that they were sans Ray Lewis for much of the season, and Suggs missed a lot of the season, too, which is a big part of why they didn't rank very highly against the run. The Pats are a much better running team than they were last year, but I still think the Ravens D matches up well with them.
DeleteAs for the Patriots defense, I know they are fantastic at generating turnovers, but Baltimore was tied with NE for fewest turnovers by AFC teams in the regular season. I don't think the Patriots will get many, if any, extra possessions via turnover.
We do agree on one thing, though, which is that this should be a fantastic game!
i disagree, numbers from previous games dont mean nothing coming into this one, the past is the past. I beleive this will be a great game and both teams will play hard wanting a superbowl appearance, but in the end the patriots will win by at least a touchdown. Much respect to your blog and keep it up.
ReplyDeleteGO PATS!
Appreciate you reading and commenting! I agree that past numbers don't always mean much, and the fact that I brought up so many in this post is probably a credit to me having been a huge baseball fan when I was young. But, like in baseball, sometimes in the NFL players just show up better against certain opponents or in certain situations than against others. But we'll see today, because, as you said, it ought to be a great game!
DeleteYes it will indeed, and as i said pats will win by at least a touchdown. Gronks out but pats can play amazing without him, ridley will run for 100+ yards and a touchdown or 2, and brady will definately throw a few TD passes. Wilfork and Hightower will both have sacked flacco and we will see new england in new orleans early february, probably with the 49ers, witch will defiantely be a superbowl you dont wanna miss! (except for the halftime show, NFL needs to get Motley Crue or AC/DC in the near future!!)
DeleteCompletely in agreement on the topic of Halftime Shows. I personally don't mind stuff that charts on the mainstream, and enjoyed the Super Bowl XLV show with the Black Eyed Peas and Usher. But I can't think of any other performers, since I was old enough to remember, that I've enjoyed.
DeleteListen to the black eyes peas album "behind the front"
Deletethis was before they had fergie and rapped about not selling out or buying designer clothes and shit. I was a big fan of them untill they want mainstream with fergie. I did not watch that halftime show, did not watch janet jacksons either. this is football. do you think that when jj hawk is smashing his helmet against his head hes thinking about beyonce songs? probly not. NFL needs to put real acts in the halftime show and not sissy ass pansy shit to get wives and dudes who dont gave a shit about football to tune in and boost ratings. give the fans something they deserve at the end of the season....to the left to the left?? get the hell outta here!!
once again , GO PATS!
I think that New England's defense is much improved since last year, and also the first matchup between the teams. Meanwhile, the Raven's defense has gotten much worse. The Patriots have gotten better against the deep pass, and since Denver was burned last week, they will have focused on that in practice. Especially with Aqib Talib, the Ravens will have a lot harder time throwing it deep, or at all. The Ravens defense is old and slow, and will get tired against the Pats up tempo offense. The way I see it, the Pats are better than last year, and the Ravens are worse.
ReplyDeletePatriots 31
Ravens 25
About the game earlier in the season, it had the replacement refs. It was the worst game, besides the Fail Mary, that I have seen them call. Non existent pass interferences on the Pats defensive backs.
Sorry, I moderate my comments to avoid spam (and my friends trying to blast me for the sake of giving me a hard time).
DeleteAnd that's a fair point to bring up about the replacement refs, though having watched several other games, I would hesitate to call is the second worst game the replacements called, especially considering they called it pretty poorly on both sides, at least as best as I can recall.
But we've been calling the Ravens' defense old for a couple years now and I've gotten to a point where I'm willing to overlook that to an extent rather than place so much emphasis on it.
I see you have changed your mind about the D and that was before the Ravens/Pats game.
ReplyDeleteGood call.
Re ... Halftime shows ... I'm old school I know but one year I would love just to see strutting drum majors, marching bands spelling out words and smiling baton twirling ladies.
It always got my heart and toes thumping and they were never trying to sell one of their albums or make a "Wardrobe Malfuntion" publicity stunt.
My pick this year ... The Original Colts Marching Band.