Thursday, January 2, 2014

2014 Wild Card Preview: Packers vs 49ers



Cory Puffett

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
January 5 – 4:40pm (FOX)

Aaron Rodgers is back! Randall Cobb is back! So why am I not so sure that Green Bay will stomp the 49ers on Sunday?

Is it because Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 against the Packers? More specifically, Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 against the Packers when Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb are both active. Both were available for Green Bay when the 49ers beat them in the season opener. Both played when the 49ers beat them in last year’s season opener. Both were active when they couldn’t do to San Francisco’s defense what Colin Kaepernick did to theirs in last year’s divisional playoff game.

If anything gives Green Bay an edge this week, it’s the weather. Saturday is the last day they are calling for snow in Green Bay this week, but the high on Sunday is expected to be just 12 degrees. And this is Sunday’s late game.

Colin Kaepernick seems to have gotten over his slump from the beginning and middle of the season. He has a passer rating of at least 108 in his last three games and five of his last six. But how will he handle the frigid conditions of Lambeau in January?

The trouble with predicting this game is that you don’t want to focus only on the weather conditions the game will be played in. At the same time, you can’t rely simply on stats because Green Bay is so far below most other teams primarily because Rodgers was inactive for so long. You also can’t lean too heavily on that season-opener; it was too long ago and the players and coaches have (hopefully) grown since then.

More likely than not, this game will come down to who can run the ball the best. In the last three meetings between the Packers and 49ers, San Francisco has had a heavy advantage here. But Eddie Lacy has made a name for himself this year and will make it more difficult for the 49ers’ defense to contain Aaron Rodgers and all his toys.

Part of the reason why I’m so excited for this game is because it is so difficult to predict who will win. I will make my official pick on tomorrow’s Football Freak’s podcast. Until then, I have a lot to think about. I’m not even remotely sure of who I will be picking.

Puff’s Pick:
Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.

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