2014 Wild Card Preview: Bengals vs Chargers

Cory Puffett

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

January 5 – 1:05pm (CBS)

Andy Dalton hopes the third time’s the charm. He led his Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons but will look to get the playoff monkey off his back on Sunday. His Bengals fell to Houston in the 2012 and 2013 playoffs.

Cincinnati is unbeaten at home this year. And is it any wonder? They average 34 points/game at Paul Brown Stadium compared to just 19 per game on the road. Their defense also plays better at home, though it only translates to a difference of about five points per game for their opponents.

San Diego has had an up-and-down season. Their offense has played well most of the year. Philip Rivers is certainly one of my leading candidates for most improved player after the way he struggled the previous two seasons. Ryan Mathews is another candidate. He’s suffered from fumblitis most of his career but was a focal point for the Chargers offense during their late-season run.

To make the playoffs, San Diego had to win five of their last six games after a three-game losing streak coming out of their bye. And they didn’t just beat a bunch of slouches either. They had to win in Kansas City and in Denver, and then they had to beat the Chiefs again last week at home.

Now, Kansas City did rest all but two of their starters, but those backups were hungry and you still have to credit San Diego for fighting them off, even if a couple officiating errors may have influenced the outcome of that game.

But that one late-season loss came at home against Cincinnati. And now they have to play the Bengals on the road, in front of a crowd that hasn’t seen its team lose in person in almost 13 months.

Cincinnati has improved each of the past three seasons. In 2011 they went 9-7, finished third in the AFC North, and then lost by 21 to Houston in their Wild Card game. Last year they went 10-6, finished second in the division and lost by just six, again to Houston, in the Wild Card round.

Now Dalton and the Bengals have an 11-5 record and AFC North title under their belts, and a chance to win their first playoff game since a 41-14 romp against the Houston Oilers in January 1991.

But look out for Philip Rivers. He’s been known to spoil the postseason for other promising teams. He did it to Peyton Manning’s Colts twice. Now, he does only have one road win to his credit in the postseason, but remember that those were the Norv Turner Chargers. And before that, Rivers lost both playoff games under Marty Schottenheimer. With Mike McCoy, Rivers plans to change his fortunes.

Cincinnati has to be the favorite to win this matchup, but I’m not ready to count out the Bolts. I will make my official pick on tomorrow’s Football Freaks Wild Card prediction podcast.

Puff’s Pick:

Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.

2014 Wild Card Preview: Eagles vs Saints

Cory Puffett

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

January 4 – 8:10pm (NBC)

This is the only wild card game that is not a rematch from the regular season. It is also the only game this weekend that does not feature at least one team that made the postseason last year.

The Saints’ road struggles have been well documented this season. In fact, most of you know that New Orleans is 0-3 in road playoff games under Sean Payton. Perhaps you don’t know that they have lost all five playoff games away from home in franchise history. They say “the sixth time is the charm.”

Philly has been on fire of late. They had one big hiccup in Minnesota a few weeks ago, but with the way they rebounded against Chicago the following week, I don’t think that loss to Matt Cassel should be a major concern.

The Eagles have won 7 of their last 8 games. The thing that does have me concerned is that the only good team they played in that stretch was Arizona, who they only beat 24-21 despite playing at home. Sure they beat the Packers in that stretch, but those were the Scott Tolzien Packers, they don’t count as a “good team.”

The good news for the Saints is that clear skies are expected for Saturday night in Philly. It will be cold, but no one is calling for rain or snow yet.

Aside from the home field factor, the two teams are pretty evenly matched on paper. The Saints have the better defense, even if they do struggle a little more against the run than Philadelphia. The Eagles are a much better run team on offense and have been just about on par with New Orleans in the pass game since Nick Foles took over.

But there are a couple of statistical categories that New Orleans is clearly the better team in. The Saints have given up the fewest first downs in the league while the Eagles are the worst of the playoff teams in that category. New Orleans is also one of the better teams in the league in getting off the field on third down. Of this year’s playoff crop, only New England is worse than Philly in terms of opponents’ third down percentage.

As I mentioned in my earlier preview, I will be making my official predictions for the wild card games later in the week. I really don’t know who I’m leaning toward for this one, so wish me luck.

Puff's Pick:

Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.

2014 Wild Card Preview: Colts vs Chiefs

Cory Puffett

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

January 4 – 4:35pm (NBC)

Like two of the other wild card games, this is a rematch from the regular season. But this was the most recent of those games, so some think that the Week 16 matchup between these teams will be nearest to the result this weekend brings.

I have a different opinion. While we can expect a similar Colts team to show up this Saturday in Indianapolis, Kansas City was a shell of itself in that regular season showdown in Arrowhead.

Early in the season, the Chiefs were all about the defense. Jamaal Charles was their offensive leader and Alex Smith’s job was primarily to keep opponents from focusing exclusively on Charles. After Kansas City suffered their first loss, it seemed like the defense was no longer the focus and the game plan shifted to putting up more points. Smith took some more shots down field, Charles was used more in the passing game, and suddenly Kansas City was playing in shootouts.

But they scored just once against Indianapolis in Week 16. Jamaal Charles ran in from 31 yards out to cap Kansas City’s opening drive and then nothing seemed to go right for the Chiefs after that. They had a few good possessions, but a missed field goal and some turnovers kept them from putting points on the board.

Alex Smith threw into some coverages that left me scratching my head. For a guy who doesn’t take a lot of risks, he sure did on that Sunday afternoon. Playing on the road, I expect him to revert to his old habit of protecting the football and using his check down guys more liberally.

Now, after playing so poorly in Week 16 and resting Week 17 (20 of 22 starters did not play against San Diego) don’t be surprised if the Chiefs come out a little rusty. I expect it to wear off though, and Jamaal Charles should have a big second half.

The Colts’ defense had a rough patch mid-season but seems to have shaken it over the past several weeks. That said, they’ve still struggled to contain the better running backs they’ve faced. Charles had a pretty good game in Week 16. The Colts won that game off of Smith’s atypical play and some clutch takeaways.

Indy has struggled to put points on the board since Reggie Wayne was hurt in Week 7. I don’t expect that to change against a Chiefs defense that has played well against mid-level offensive units.

Sure Kansas City has lost 5 of their last 7. I don’t think that means they’re doomed to be a one-and-done team, though. I’ll make my official pick later in the week with the rest of the Football Freaks, but right now I have to say I’m leaning toward Kansas City.

Puff's Pick:

Will be added after the Football Freaks podcast is published on Friday.