Wild Card Afterword, Part I

Luke Kuechly's fourth quarter interception sealed Carolina's
first playoff win since January 2006.

Cory Puffett

Arizona at Carolina

Cam Newton praised his defense following Carolina’s victory to open wild card weekend. Newton played a solid game, but he was absolutely right to give credit for the win to his defense.

Sure Ryan Lindley was the opposing quarterback, and sure Andre Ellington couldn’t play Saturday afternoon; but even with that handicap, it’s amazing that Carolina’s defense allowed just 78 yards of total offense to Arizona. That was a team that started the season 9-1 and has offensive guru Bruce Arians at the helm.

I picked Carolina to win and was very close to picking the correct final score (Arizona scored an extra three points), but I had no premonitions of their defense manhandling the Cardinals offense the way they did. Arizona’s two touchdown drives, and I use that term loosely, were a combined 10 plays for 47 yards consuming 4:19 of game time.

Luke Kuechly played a masterful game with 10 tackles, 2 pass deflections and an interception. Carolina may have lifted their season record to just .500, but the defense makes this a dangerous team whether they have to play in Seattle or Green Bay next week.

It didn't matter how much pressure Pittsburgh brought, Joe Flacco shrugged
it off to deliver a terrific performance Saturday night in Pittsburgh.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The later game was as exciting as we’ve come to expect from the Ravens-Steelers rivalry, unlike their last regular season meeting when Ben Roethlisberger tossed six touchdown passes for the second consecutive game.

I survived the 2013 postseason, so I pray I can do it again this year because Ravens fans are about to get very obnoxious. They’ll have to go into New England next weekend, but John Harbaugh has coached the Ravens to playoff victories there before and the team has plenty of reason to believe he can do so again.

Harbaugh first led the Ravens to a postseason win in New England in 2009, thanks in part to Ray Rice setting the tone with an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage. Three years later, the Ravens went into Denver to beat Peyton Manning in his first season back from injury and then won in New England a week later en route to the team’s first Super Bowl victory since 2000.

The Ravens twice lost playoff games in Pittsburgh during Harbaugh’s first five years with the team, but they returned to the Steel City with a vengeance on Saturday. They didn’t blow the Steelers off of Heinz Field, but they sure came close to it.

Justin Forsett had been inconsistent over the last quarter of the season, but the team hoped he could duplicate his 119-yard performance from last week against Cleveland. That wasn’t the case as he lost a fumble and only managed 36 yards in the contest.

Fortunately for the Ravens, their defense played great and Joe Flacco continued his playoff hot streak. The 7th-year pro out of Delaware has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last five playoff starts and had a terrific game Saturday in Pittsburgh.

It’s too early to make predictions for the divisional round, but it’s safe to say I’m going to be wrestling with Ravens vs. Patriots all week as I try to make sense of that matchup and find a definitive reason to pick either team to win that game.

Thursday Football Afterword: Cardinals vs Seahawks

Carson Palmer was under duress all night and Seattle's front seven
got to him for seven sacks in the contest.

Cory Puffett

Judging my the score of last night’s game, you’d probably say that Arizona’s defense gave up a game they could have won. Surprisingly, you’d be wrong. The Seahawks, a team that typically underperforms on the road, bounced back from a mediocre home game last week to play a really nice game on both sides of the ball on Thursday night.

Arizona’s defense did all it could, even stuffing Russell Wilson on a fourth down in the second quarter with less than six inches needed to convert. The offense took over and drove the field but had to settle for a field goal.

In the fourth quarter, Carson Palmer put together a long stream of completions, but most of them were check downs with no time outs and a need for a quick score. But even that didn’t last as the Seahawks decided to stop playing prevent defense and broke down the offensive line, which isn’t a very hard task as it is.

Seattle benefitted from a broken play to open the scoring in the first half. Sidney Rice was wide open after breaking deep off a curl route, and Russell Wilson showed off his big arm to find him in the end zone.

Marshawn Lynch fell just short of his second 100-yard game with 91 yards and a score (he’s come close two other times with 98-yard performances against San Francisco and Houston).

Seattle’s defense doesn’t always play as well when they leave the 12^th Man, but two interceptions and seven sacks show that they were ready for this one, and they played a great game.

Arizona has ten days to prepare for the Falcons to visit them and then will enjoy their bye week. Seattle, meanwhile, will have another division road game as they travel to St. Louis next week and then have three more games before their bye week.

Final Score:

Seattle Seahawks – 34

Arizona Cardinals – 22

Sunday Football Afterword: Saints vs Cardinals

Drew Brees returned to form and put the Saints in the conversation with
Seattle and Denver for the best team in the NFL. Photo credit to USA Today.

Eric Meyer

The Saints offense finally clicked while its defense continued to display a newfound dominance as the Saints rolled the Cardinals at home and improved to 3-0. After allowing a touchdown on the opening drive of the game, the Saints’ D took over and didn’t allow another score despite playing with many short fields due to some poor special teams play.

The defense picked off Carson Palmer twice and recorded four sacks, while the offense came alive after two sloppy games.

Drew Brees threw three touchdown passes and ran for another, while Jimmy Graham had another great day with 148 yards and two scores. The running game is still a work in progress, but the Saints offense appears to be rounding back into form.

The Saints will always be in games with Brees and Sean Payton leading the attack, but the defense will determine this team’s ceiling, and right now the ceiling is looking pretty high.

Final Score:

Arizona Cardinals – 7

New Orleans Saints – 31

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2013 Offseason Needs: NFC West

I began going through the NFL division-by-division last week, writing about what each team needs to address this offseason. I have covered the bases seven divisions, so today I move on to the last one, the NFC South.

I won’t pretend to know every detail of what each team needs, but am open to comments from those who may know better what their teams need.

Arizona Cardinals

Players are already excited that they will get to play for Bruce Arians, who became the first interim head coach in NFL history to win Coach of the Year.

Arizona was my favorite spot for Alex Smith to land, but the 49ers didn’t want to keep him in the division, understandably. The Cardinals could go to the draft to find a new quarterback, but this year doesn’t have to offer at quarterback. They could make a play for Matt Flynn, but I haven’t seen so much as a thought about that from ESPN or NFL.com, so it probably won’t happen, which means Arizona will again struggle in 2013.

On the bright side, at least it might not be only the fault of the offense if this team struggles. Todd Bowles will take over as defensive coordinator after doing the impossible – making Philadelphia’s defense even worse than it was under Juan Castillo. Arizona has some playmakers on both sides of the ball, but they might not have the tools around them to enable them to perform as well as they could on a different team.

St. Louis Rams

The Rams have been on the up-and-up for a few years now, so when will their time be? With Steven Jackson officially out and both Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson set to become free agents, a lot of focus needs to be on offense for the time being.

St. Louis lost just one game against a division opponent this season, a 7-point loss in Week 17 visiting Seattle. So this is undoubtedly a good team, but they couldn’t get it done against other opponents. Granted they had a tough schedule, but you have to beat the teams you play, no excuses.

What I would like to see from the Rams is some speed. Ever since the “Greatest Show on Turf” came to an end, St. Louis has taken on a ‘bruiser’ mentality. I want to see them get some players who can stretch the field on offense and get to the quarterback quickly on defense. If they can get that, I’ll give this team a shot at a wild card. Until then, I still can’t see the light at the end of their tunnel.

San Francisco 49ers

Secondary, secondary, secondary. That must be the 49ers’ main focus this offseason because they’re just about set everywhere else. They have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, a young quarterback with quick feet and an incredibly accurate cannon for an arm, a solid running game, and a great receiving corps. Their offensive line isn’t bad either.

So the focus needs to be on the secondary. Dashon Goldson might be out, and 49ers fans probably won’t mind based on the pre-Super Bowl feedback I got from many of them. If they get rid of him I’m not sure who they’ll go after to replace him, but they’ll need to do that in addition to improving depth throughout the rest of their secondary.

In no way am I saying San Francisco’s secondary is bad. It is a very good unit. But when every other aspect of your team is among the best in the league and you’re ‘only’ middle-of-the-pack, you get noticed.

Seattle Seahawks

Richard Sherman needs to focus on working out this offseason rather than telling everyone that he’s a better corner than Darrelle Revis. In my opinion, neither of them is the best active corner, but that’s another story for another day.

Aside from that, Seattle is in a good spot. Their front seven could use some depth, but they made some significant strides in the final weeks of the 2012 season.

On offense the plan is simple; build around Russell Wilson. Add wide receivers, tight ends and depth at offensive line. Seattle has the simplest remedy of any team in the NFL, and that’s why I’m expecting a deep playoff run from them in 2013.

Next week I will go back to what I did the first couple weeks of the offseason. Keep up with new posts as I publish them by ‘liking’ my Facebook page and by following me on Twitter, @cpuffnfl.

Monday Night Football Afterword: Cardinals vs 49ers

The Cardinals failed to protect their home field against
NFC West rival, San Francisco, on Monday Night.

Unfortunately, Hurricane Sandy kept me busy during all but the final seven minutes of the game last night. My bedroom window in my apartment was leaking quite badly (it’s currently under control and hopefully will stay under control until someone can come take a look at it). I don’t mean to whine too much, I know there are plenty out there in much worse shape than I am, and know my prayers are going out for you.

However, it does mean I don’t have much to say about the game. San Francisco took care of business. I expected it to be close but I felt that the offensive troubles the 49ers have been dealing with would only be magnified against a very good Arizona defense. That didn’t happen as Alex Smith had one of the most efficient games of any quarterback this year.

Smith completed 18 passes. 18 passes in 19 attempts, and the one incompletion was a dropped pass by an open receiver. I don’t care that I didn’t get to see all of them, and I don’t care how many short passes those completions came on, you can’t have a much more efficient game than that. His passer rating was 157.1 – a perfect passer rating is 158.3.

San Francisco blew the Cardinals out of their home stadium and extended their lead in the NFC West with all three of their division rivals losing this week. We will see if they can maintain it, but with how inconsistent the other three teams have looked, I don’t think any of them will catch the 49ers during the second half of the season.

Thursday Night Football Afterword: Rams vs Cardinals

The Rams hosted the Cardinals in the 4th installment of
NFLNetwork's Thursday Night Football

Last night wasn’t a particular exciting game, but we still learned a lot from it.

I have little doubt now that the NFC West is the best defensive division in football this year. The 49ers have done well on defense, we all saw what Seattle’s defense did against the Packers, and Arizona’s defense has been terrific, allowing their offense to outscore New England and lead this team to a 4-0 start.

The Rams joined that group last night as Steve Spagnuolo’s group finally had a huge game on defense. It is tough to read too much into it because it was the second straight week Arizona’s offensive line gave up eight sacks. But St. Louis allowed Arizona to enter the red zone three times. In those three trips, the Cardinals came away with nothing. Nothing! Three trips and not a thing to show for it; I give credit for that to the Rams’ defense.

That said, St. Louis didn’t play lights-out either. At one point, Sam Bradford has thrown 12 or 13 consecutive incompletions, the longest streak of his career. Granted, he did have a 51-yard touchdown pass, which was also a career long.

I always enjoyed close games with a lot of defense, but seeing quarterbacks struggle the way Sam Bradford did, and offensive lines not be able to protect their quarterback, like Kevin Kolb’s failed to, doesn’t keep my interest as easily. Kolb was sacked eight times, but he was knocked down and hit around 20 or 25 additional times.

The Cardinals are not doomed, but their flaws that were hidden during their 4-0 run to start the season are now in the open. The Rams are above .500 for the first time in years, but I’m not convinced they are for real either, especially with Danny Amendola out for possibly the rest of the season. The team should learn today whether he has a broken collarbone or if it is something less severe, which would be a huge relief and a major bullet dodged.

I am playing with a few ideas for a blog post tomorrow. I am going to work on them and see if it will work. Check back tomorrow for a possible post. If nothing comes tomorrow, my next post will be, as in the past, on Monday when I publish my Sunday Football Afterwords. Thanks for reading everyone, and enjoy the weekend!

Sunday Football Afterword: Week 4 Late Games

Brian Dawkins was honored during pregame and at halftime,
but looked like he wanted to suit up and play last night.

I just missed a perfect Sunday evening with my predictions because of the Sunday Night matchup, but I got every game correct that started in the 4:00 hour.

Arizona narrowly retained their status as an unbeaten with an overtime, 24-21 victory at home against Miami. The ‘Fins owned a 13-0 lead at halftime, but Arizona came alive in the second half as Kevin Kolb threw three touchdowns, two of them in the fourth quarter, including a 15-yarder to Andre Roberts inside of 30 seconds to play in regulation. Kolb finished with 324 passing yards while rookie Ryan Tannehill threw for 431 for Miami, 253 of which went toward Brian Hartline’s single-game team record.

New Orleans offense finally did what we thought it could do when the season began – keep them in games despite their crippled defense. Unfortunately, the Packers rode the same train and did so slightly better. The Packers held on for a 28-27 victory in what was a must-win game for both teams. Drew Brees threw for three scores, throwing a touchdown in his 47^th consecutive game, which ties an all-time NFL record. Rodgers threw for over 100 fewer yards, but one more score in the game.

The other exciting early-evening game was a blowout after the first half. Washington led Tampa Bay 21-6 at halftime. But three missed field goals by Billy Cundiff on stalled Redskins drives allowed the Buccaneers to battle back to a 22-21 lead. With three seconds left, Cundiff ‘redeemed’ himself with a 41-yarder that barely made it through the uprights, to win the game. RGIII played very well, rushing for a touchdown (nearly two) and didn’t turn the ball over at all.

Andy Dalton has now thrown an interception in each of the first four games this season, but they keep pace with the Ravens in the AFC North with another win, this one a 27-10 victory over Jacksonville. The Jaguars could not get anything going offensively and the win was even more lopsided than the final score suggests.

Granted it was at home against an awful defense, but Peyton Manning looked better than he has all season, even looking back at their opener against the Steelers. He finished 30/38 for 338 yards, 3 touchdowns, and, most importantly, no interceptions. Willis McGahee contributed to the offensive attack with 19 carries, over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.

The Sunday Night game was as exciting as I’ve been waiting a nationally televised game to legitimately be this season. At the two-minute warning in the first half, the score was tied at 0. At halftime, it was 7-3 Eagles. The scoring picked up a little from there, but it was a close one to the finish. The lead switched hands a couple times late, and the Giants even grabbed a late 17-16 lead. The Eagles drove but were held to a 26-yard field goal by Alex Henery with just under two minutes left in the game. The Eagles committed two pass interference penalties on the Giants’ final drive, including on a 4^th & 1 downfield pass. However, offensive pass interference a few plays later moved the Giants out of Lawrence Tynes’s range.

Andy Reid needs to take a note from mistakes made by the likes of Jason Garrett and Joe Philbin and stop icing the kicker. They Eagles got lucky last night. Reid called a last-second time out and his defense blocked the field goal attempt. Lawrence Tynes took his second opportunity and made a beautiful kick, perfectly down the middle of the hash marks. He just didn’t have the leg from 54 yards and the Eagles held on to win 19-17.

With the regular officials back in place, this was the most exciting week of the season so far and I look forward to 13 more weeks of the same. For now, we have a big matchup on tap for tonight as the Cowboys host the Bears at 8:30. Be sure to check out my afterword on that game tomorrow.

Thanks for reading!

10 Things You Need to Know: NFL Regular Season Week 4

The Texans have dethroned the 49ers as the #1 team in the NFL
according to the NFL.com Power Rankings.

Don’t forget to listen to an all-new broadcast of The All-Sports Crew tonight at 7 p.m. on WMUC Sports. We had a special show last night, the podcast of which is currently on iTunes. The WMUC Sports server is currently back up and running, so we should not run into the same issues we did last week, not getting a show in or a podcast on iTunes.

10.         ‘Monday Night Fiasco’

I already wrote more than enough about this train wreck, but it was so horrendous that it’s worth me linking to it in this post. You can read my semi-rant here and check out our discussion on the topic by subscribing to The All-Sports Crew’s podcasts on iTunes.

9.            CJ”No”K

Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson is one of the fastest players in the NFL today. After running for 45 yards in 3 games he is on pace to gain only 240 rushing yards in 2012. Keep in mind that this is the same Chris Johnson who broke Marshall Faulk’s single-season yards from scrimmage record in 2009, rushing for 2006 yards and gaining another 503 yards through the air.

8.            Coaches Fined for Conduct

Denver Broncos head coach John Fox and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio have both been fined by the NFL for how they dealt with replacement officials in their Week 2 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons.

This week, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan are both being reviewed by the league for their actions toward replacement refs. I’m sure we can expect some fines to be handed to some coaches and players from Monday Night’s game, too. In my own opinion, all of these fines are unwarranted.

7.            Major Injuries

Yet again, the Colts will be without Austin Collie for the remainder of the season. After having concussion issues the past few seasons, this year it is Collie’s knee that will keep him out for the final 14 weeks of the season.

Darrelle Revis tore his left ACL and will also be gone for the rest of the season, leaving the Jets playoff hopes all but shattered.

Darrius Heyward-Bey took a vicious hit in the end zone on Sunday. He was unconscious before he hit the ground but gave a thumbs-up to the crowd as he was carted off the field. He was released from the hospital on Monday. He sustained a concussion and a strained neck.

Fantasy standout running backs Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller both went down with injuries this week. There was no structural damage to Bush’s knee, but the team has not definitively said how much time he may miss.

Spiller’s injury may be more severe. It was a shoulder injury, but the severity isn’t so much with the injury itself, which the Bills have said may not keep him out for too much time. The severity is with Fred Jackson scheduled to be back from his injury in the next week or two. With his injury, Spiller stepped into the starting role and had many people thinking he would keep it even when Jackson returned. Now, the future isn’t nearly so clear for C.J. Spiller.

6.            Fantasy Disappointments

Saints RB Darren Sproles had only 6 fantasy points in my PPR league.

Packers WR Jordy Nelson had only 2 fantasy points.

Patritos TE Rob Gronkowski laid a rare egg, scoring only 3 points despite Aaron Hernandez not being an option for Brady.

This one isn’t so much a disappointment because he played poorly, but because he wasn’t rewarded for how well he played. Eli Manning played a brilliant game against the Panthers, but only scored 16 fantasy points.

5.            Fantasy Surprises

Ravens WR Torrey Smith scored 27 fantasy points, playing hours after learning of his younger brother’s death in a motorcycle accident.

Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles scored 39 fantasy points! He said he finally felt like himself again after suffering a season-ending injury last year. He looked like himself, too.

Texans QB Matt Schaub scored 33 fantasy points.

Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew scored 27 points as he finally hit his stride after his holdout.

Giants K Laurence Tynes scored 20 points, quite a high sum for a kicker.

4.            Games to Watch

Like last week, I’ll be more specific on why these are the biggest games to watch in my predictions post tomorrow.

• San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
• Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
• New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
• New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)

3.            Power Rankings

For the sake of space, I will list just the top 6 and the bottom 6 here. You can see the rest on NFL.com.

1. Houston Texans	27. Indianapolis Colts
2. San Francisco 49ers	28. Miami Dolphins
3. Atlanta Falcons	29. Oakland Raiders
4. Green Bay Packers	30. Washington Redskins
5. Baltimore Ravens	31. New Orleans Saints
6. New York Giants	32. Cleveland Browns

The Vikings made the biggest jump, ten spots from 26^th to 16^th. The Cardinals jumped eight spots from 15^th to 7^th. The biggest fall goes to the Redskins and the Saints, who each dropped eight spots from into the bottom six. The Steelers dropped seven spots from 7^th to 14^th.

2.            Arizona Cardinals

When John Skelton was announced the starter over Kevin Kolb and then went down with an injury in Week 1 against the Seahawks, I’m sure most people felt that any chance of winning games was gone for Arizona. Three weeks later, they’re sitting at 3-0, one of just three teams with that mark this season. Kolb has stepped in and, though he has not played like a phenomenal quarterback, he has not been a liability to his team.

“Not a liability” isn’t much of a vote of confidence, but when you have a defense like the Cardinals have put on display the last three weeks, not a liability is all you really need from your quarterback. Anything more is gravy.

The Cardinals backed up their comeback victory against the Seahawks with a win against the Patriots (granted, they needed a missed field goal as time expired to get that win) and a decisive victory against the Eagles.

I am not yet buying into this team completely, but with the 49ers a strong team, and the Seahawks with possibly the best defense in the National Football League, the Cardinals make the case for the NFC West being the best football division.

1.            Houston Texans

After a rough loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the San Francisco 49ers have fallen from the top spot in the NFL.com power poll for the first time this season. I was a little surprised that the voters weren’t more split between the Texans and Falcons, but the Texans were the unanimous #1 team. Matt Schaub is back from last season’s injury, and he had a huge game against Denver.

Arian Foster is a fantastic running back, Andre Johnson had a great game and appears to have regained his position as a top-5 NFL wide receiver, and the defense has picked up right where it left off last year.

Houston plays Tennessee this week, and Jake Locker had a huge game this past week. Listen to The All-Sports Crew tonight at 7 p.m. on WMUC Sports to find out who my co-hosts and I believe will win that game, and the other 14 games in Week 4.

2011-12 Postseason Predictions, Part II: NFC

NFC Postseason

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4) – NFC East Champion, Home Field Advantage

Even before I went through and picked winners for all 256 regular season games, my two favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl were Philadelphia and Atlanta, so I was not at all surprised to see them at the top of my postseason preview.

The biggest question for me going into 2011 is how players like Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson respond to the high level of success they had last season (with the bigger concern in my mind being Jackson). As they say, “pride goes before the fall.” Take Chad Ochocinco for example. He got a big head, started showing off, and what has happened? Is he still a very good receiver? Yes, absolutely. But I rarely rank him in my top 20-25 for NFL receivers anymore. Will DeSean Jackson suffer the same fate? I believe the answer to that question is the key to just how close to 12-4 and home field advantage the Eagles will get.

Now, regardless of their offense, the Eagles have a fantastic defense this season that will take them to the playoffs. With the addition of Nnamdi Asomugha to their secondary, complimenting an already solid defensive corps, it will be very difficult for their opponents to establish any kind of passing game, and the ground attack can only take a team so far.

2. Atlanta Falcons (11-5) – NFC South Champion, 1st Round Bye

A big part of this record, in my mind, is how the Falcons will do at home. I have them winning around seven of their home games, meaning they are right around .500 on the road. They had a lot of success at home last season and I think they will continue that this season. Their fans are even more expectant of success this year and will be that much louder, disrupting their visitors.

The key to getting a better record than what I predict (by winning away games) is the development of Matt Ryan. For the past few years I have said that Ryan could develop into a Peyton Manning type quarterback, and I still see that potential. But I did not see much improvement over the course of last season, so the question in my mind is what he has done and how much he has improved over the offseason without the help of coaches keeping track of his work and guiding his progress.

3. Green Bay Packers (10-6) – NFC North Champion

The Packers are the type of team that should be good for many years. If they made the playoffs each of the next ten seasons, I would not be shocked by any means. In the same breath, they are not a team that I see leading the conference during the regular season. To me, they scream, “peak during the postseason!” And in a lot of ways, that is the best way to do it, especially for an NFC team where 10 wins in a season, until last season, virtually guarantee a playoff birth.

Aaron Rodgers plays very well into this style. He plays well throughout the season, but his best games seem to be the last few of the regular season and then his postseason performances.

They will also, again, have one of the toughest defenses in the league, with a secondary that is very difficult to pick apart, a line that is nearly impenetrable with the run, and linebackers who can defend the run and the pass.

They key will be keeping players healthy. Last season they won the Super Bowl with 13 really good players on IR, but do not count on them having the same success if they lose a lot of players to injury again this year.

4. Arizona Cardinals (10-6) – NFC West Champion

The addition of Kevin Kolb makes all the difference to me. The Cardinals are a talented team, and have been for several years now. They had all the necessities for a playoff team, even last year, except for a quarterback who could lead them. With Kurt Warner, they did some things nobody expected from them. Last year, without Warner, they struggled to a 5-11 record, winning just one game against an NFC West opponent.

With a Kolb taking the snaps for them this year, I think we see Arizona back in the postseason and a playoff game in the desert.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) – 2nd Place NFC South, Wild Card

Tampa Bay could just as easily sneak off with the NFC South title and a 1st round bye in my mind, it is that close. Raheem Morris, in his second year as head coach (he lead Tampa to a 3-13 record in 2009), showed what his work ethic can accomplish, shocking the NFL by taking his team to a 10-6 record, barely missing the postseason (it is not common for 10-6 not to make the playoffs in the NFC). 2nd year quarterback Josh Freeman was great, throwing just 6 INTs to 25 touchdowns (only Tom Brady threw fewer among quarterbacks with at least 450 pass attempts last season).

With LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams returning, Tampa Bay’s offense is set.

Defense may be Tampa Bay’s weakness, but Morris is a defensive head coach, so any huge issues should be taken care of by the time week 1 of the regular season rolls around.

6. Dallas Cowboys (9-7) – 2nd Place NFC East, Wild Card

Dallas, honestly, does not impress me that much. That said, I think they have the potential to hit 10 or even 11 wins. Why? Jason Garrett. After the team started 1-7 last season, Wade Phillips was fired and Garrett was named the interim head coach. He led the team to a 5-3 finish. With Tony Romo back, I honestly feel like Dallas may be at a disadvantage. If Kitna were the starter, I probably would have given Dallas another win right off the bat.

Romo has had a good deal of success, and he is earned all of it. But during his 5+ games last season, Dallas only delivered one win. Kitna came in and Dallas lost two more game under Phillips and then went 5-3 under Garrett (with those 3 losses being by a combined 7 points). That first loss with Kitna could just as easily be faulted to him needing time to develop a rapport with the offensive starters.

If Romo has bounced back well from his injury and can return to his pre-2010 success, the Cowboys should do fine under one of the best young head coaches in the NFL.

Could Sneak In

New York Giants

Honestly, I do not see the Giants getting into the postseason. I only have them on this list because I have them winning nine games, and one more against a team I did not expect them to win against (maybe the Cowboys) would put them in.

Minnesota Vikings

Leslie Frazier did not have quite the same success following Childress’ firing as Jason Garrett did after Phillips’, but the Vikings have some things going for them. They are rid of Brett Favre, and though he was a good quarterback last year, that is all he was. Gone was the 2009 Brett Favre who miraculously led Minnesota to the NFC Championship game.

Now, they have Donovan McNabb, who could actually do really well since ex-Redskins have generally trended upward after leaving the D.C. area. The Vikings have one of the best defensive lines in the NFC (I only rank Detroit’s above theirs) and their secondary, though not superb, is solid. With Peterson in the backfield and a good corps of receivers, McNabb, if nothing else, should see success closer to what he had in Philadelphia than what he did in Washington.

Detroit Lions

As I mentioned above, the Lions probably have the best defensive line in the NFC, and they make a case for best in the NFL. Ndamukong Suh is a one-man wrecking crew in the trenches, and with the addition of Nick Farley in the 2011 draft, the question will be how running backs can get out any running room and how long will quarterbacks have to go through their progressions and get the ball out of their hands before the pocket collapses on them. Only the best quarterbacks will find any success, and even the best running backs might not find any, against this Lions defense.

My problem is the question mark surrounding the offense. They have a very good wide receiver in Calvin Johnson. But who should be leading the offense? Matthew Stafford or Shaun Hill? And will Jahvid Best stay healthy? He played very well on his injured foot last season, but if he cannot keep that foot in good shape, he can only play on it so long before it starts taking years off his career.

I say it is one more year that Lions fans will have to wait, but they could sneak in this year and I can definitely see them in the postseason following the 2012 season.

Chicago Bears

I do not know about the Bears. They could have another really good season this year and get into the postseason, but I wonder if their run last year, only to fall at the hands of Green Bay, at home, in the NFC Championship game may doom them to a disappointing season this year. Jay Cutler is a good quarterback, and I think if he could have continued last year in that game last year, he would have. When you are sacked 52 times (12 more than the next most sacked QB) in a season, I have difficulty challenging your toughness.

But, until he proves otherwise, I put him in the same category as Rex Grossman. He did a pretty good job last year, but he rode his teammate’s success to a deep playoff run. He was not the reason for them making the postseason, at least not in my mind.

Lovie Smith has been doing a really good job with this team, and he will continue to, but I think it will be another case of a good year followed by a few poor seasons before the next playoff run in Chicago.

New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees has proven that the Saints can never be counted out. I think that with the rise of Tampa Bay as a team to beat in the NFC South, the Saints may be left out of the dance this year.

But you never really know for sure. They still have a very good defense, coached by Gregg Williams, one of the better defensive minds in the league. They also nabbed Mark Ingram Jr., the only Heisman winner in Alabama’s history, late in the 1st round of the 2011 draft. Reggie Bush had a spotty career in New Orleans before leaving for Miami this season, but maybe Ingram will find more success.

All I know is that the Saints will have to prove themselves to me before I consider them a playoff team in 2011.


You can see my complete standings predictions and my AFC Postseason Preview at the following URLs:

Standings: 2011-12 Postseason Predictions, Part I: Standings
AFC Postseason: 2011-12 Postseason Predictions, Part II: AFC

2011 Offseason: NFC West

Today’s posts are for the teams in the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals

2011 Offseason: Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers

2011 Offseason: San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

2011 Offseason: Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis Rams

2011 Offseason: St. Louis Rams

Thanks for reading my 2011 Offseason series. Check back periodically for more NFL related posts.

2011 Offseason: Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals were 5-11 this season, but only 2 games behind the division winner. Don’t expect the same next season. The Rams will be much better and there’s no doubt Pete Carroll’s Seahawks know that and will be making changes in order to defend their NFC West crown.

If the Cardinals want to have a shot at throwing their name in with those two teams, they need a new quarterback. Derek Anderson had plenty of shots in Cleveland and blew them all. Then Arizona gave him an opportunity at redemption, and again Anderson blew it. Arizona may want to use their early draft pick on a quarterback, but they should look for other options first. They may not have a choice if the new CBA isn’t reached soon, but if it is a trade might come in handy. The Redskins no longer trust Donovan McNabb, so they would likely be open to a trade. He might be a good fit in Arizona, and he’d certainly be better than anyone they have right now.

They also need to improve the other end of their passing game, the receivers. I’m not talking about the wide receivers, though. They actually look pretty solid at that position. But there is no compliment to Fitzgerald and Breaston. They need to get some better receiving tight ends. It is important for the TE position to be able to block, but these days it’s actually more important that he be able to catch. Arizona’s three tight ends combined for just 25 receptions this season, none of which were touchdowns. This is particularly disturbing. With the size of a tight end, he should be targeted more when the team is in the red zone.

Arizona will have to improve that offensive line, especially if they want to trade for someone. No veteran quarterback will want to come anywhere near the team with the offensive line they currently have. Everyone knows the Cardinals’ quarterbacks held on to the ball too long, but an offensive line has to adjust to that and these guys couldn’t. Perhaps a better route to take in the draft than picking a quarterback would be to take an offensive lineman with that first round pick in hopes that they can then get a veteran quarterback to come in.

The defense was also troubling. The secondary could use one or two extra guys, but a lot of pressure would be taken off the weaker defensive backs if the Cardinals could top the run, a statistic in which Arizona finished 30th in the league this season. The defensive line needs a serious tune-up but the linebacker corps is most troubling and will need a lot of attention this offseason.