Wednesday, January 8, 2014

2014 Divisional Preview: Patriots vs Colts



Cory Puffett

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
January 11 – 8:15pm (CBS)


Andrew Luck truly is Captain Comeback. Take Peyton Manning’s two highest season totals for game winning drives, they only add up to three more than Andrew Luck’s. Fourth quarter comebacks are a different story, but Luck is still doing it earlier than Peyton ever did.

Take Tom Brady’s two highest season totals for either stat and they’re only one more than Luck’s through just his rookie and sophomore seasons.

The problem, though, with being Captain Comeback is that you have to trail first. There are two things wrong with that. One, you can’t come back every time. Two, if you find yourself with a lead in the fourth quarter you may not know what to do with it.

That second problem is what bothers me this weekend. New England is not going to put up a ton of points. Quote me on it; I’ll be eating my words if I’m wrong anyway so it’ll make no difference to me if you bring it up. If the Colts lead in the fourth quarter, and it’s not by at least ten points, look out. Not only may Indianapolis not know what to do with that lead, but also Tom Brady is dangerous in crunch time no matter who he has.

I’ve watched Tom Brady play with little offensive talent before. I’ve seen him look like a fool for three and a half quarters of a football game. But it doesn’t matter how badly he’s been playing, Tom Brady in the last five minutes of a ball game with a single-digit deficit is a “baaaad man,” to quote Stephen A Smith.

And the thing is, his receivers aren’t all that bad. Sure, it’d be nice if Deion Branch were out there for him instead of suiting up for Indy this weekend. But Danny Amendola is healthy. Julian Edelman is healthy. Kenbrell Thompkins is healthy. And Michael Hoomanawanui isn’t an awful tight end – he did have three touchdown catches his rookie season in St. Louis.

Aaron Dobson is questionable right now, but even without him I’ve seen worse receiving units than this, and this one actually has one of the all-time great quarterbacks to get them the ball.

New England also has a pretty solid group of running backs with Ridley, Vereen, Blount and Bolden. I’ll be looking for New England to use them to wear down the Colts early in the game to set up Brady for some late-game success if Indy’s offense can’t close the door.

For Indianapolis, Andrew Luck has to take advantage of Brandon Spikes going on injured reserve this week. He’s a big part of New England’s defense. With him out, there will be no need to force deep throws down the field, his check downs should rarely be covered.

It also creates an advantage in the run game for the Colts. Spikes is one of New England’s leading tacklers on the season and even though he’s not bad in pass coverage, run stopping is definitely his forte.

I don’t know much about the Patriots’ backup for Spikes, but I think it’s safe to assume that he won’t need to be the first guy the linemen go after when they block for Donald Brown, who is having a heckuva few weeks. The numbers may not look superb for him, but he’s going to have to be an integral part of Indy’s game plan if they want to play in this year’s AFC Championship game.

I will make my official prediction for this game on Friday. Tomorrow I will preview the two Sunday divisional round games.

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