Wednesday, November 28, 2012

10 Things You Need to Know: NFL Regular Season Week 13

After a rough career in Dallas, Wade Phillips has turned
the defense around with in-state rival Houston. If they
made a coordinator-of-the-year award, he'd deserve it.
Photo credit to lonestarvarsity.com.

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10.            Big D Calls on the Big O

Dallas fans are petitioning President Barack Obama to take Jerry Jones out of the Cowboys organization, under category of human rights, no less!

According to NFL.com, the petition reads, “We, the Citizens of the Great State of Texas, and Dallas Cowboys fans worldwide, have been oppressed by an over controlling, delusional, oppressive dictator for way to long. Request the Executive Branch’s immediate assistance in removal of owner and GM, Jerry Jones. His incompetence and ego have not only been an extreme disappointment for way too long, but moreover, it has caused extreme mental and emotion duress.”

Regardless of whether this petition ever gets enough signatures, Jerry ought to take this as a sign that he is severely letting down Cowboys fans.

9.            An Eye Toward Next Year

Though no team has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with five games left to play, there are plenty of teams who are looking toward 2013.

The Eagles had a good thing with Nick Foles. I say ditch Andy Reid (give him a fresh start elsewhere) and Michael Vick. Build the offensive line and get some receivers who won’t underperform as soon as they start getting the big bucks.

The Panthers need to build around Cam Newton, which they failed to do this offseason. I think Chad Henne might be the best thing that happened to Jacksonville this year, but if Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick hit the market during the offseason, they need to push hard for them.

Once we get through the Super Bowl, I will be starting to look at each team individually and give my opinions of what they need to do during the offseason. I will be much more active this offseason than I was last year.

8.            Playoff Hunt

On the other side of the playing field, we have a pretty good fight on our hands for the final spots in each conference. The Giants are not yet a lock to win the NFC East, and the Packers’ performance on Sunday Night shows that they’re hardly a lock for the NFC Wild-Card. I don’t expect the Seahawks to make it, and I’m thinking Buccaneers and Redskins or Buccaneers and Saints.

In the AFC, it’s more a race for the last spot. The Steelers are fading without Big Ben, and they weren’t looking all that hot with him either. The Bengals will catch them, but there really isn’t any one else I can see pushing for the postseason.

7.            Fantasy Disappointments

There were plenty of fantasy disappointments this week, so I’ll just list a few that stood out to me.
  • It was mostly Charlie Batch’s fault, but Mike Wallace only recorded one reception for 9 yards against the Browns. Disappointing, indeed.
  • DeSean Jackson had an identical line to Wallace, but at least he had the excuse of an injury worthy of IR placement.
  • James Jones has been getting fewer and fewer targets each week, but zero receptions on zero targets in Week 12 is bad news.

6.            Fantasy Surprises
  • Cam Newton had a phenomenal game with two touchdown passes and two touchdown runs, leading to 41 fantasy points in my league.
  • Bryce Brown was without a doubt the fantasy surprise of the week. 30 fantasy points in my league, hurt only by his two fumbles.

5.            Games to Watch

Like last week, I’ll be more specific on why these are the biggest games to watch in my predictions post tomorrow.
  • New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Thursday, 8:20 p.m.)
  • Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
  • Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)
  • New York Giants at Washington Redskins (Monday, 8:30 p.m.)

4.            Power Rankings

For the sake of space, I will list just the top 6 and the bottom 6 here. You can see the rest on NFL.com.

1. Houston Texans
27. Tennessee Titans
2. Atlanta Falcons
28. Philadelphia Eagles
3. San Francisco 49ers
29. New York Jets
4. Baltimore Ravens
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. New England Patriots
31. Oakland Raiders
6. Denver Broncos
32. Kansas City Chiefs

The Packers suffered a significant drop in the rankings, from the 4 spot all the way to number 9. The Titans, Cardinals and Jets also suffered sizeable slips. The Rams jumped four spots, and the Bengals jumped five. They were only outdone by the Browns’ jump from 29 to the 23 spot.

The Power Poll is a better representation of where the teams stack up, in my opinion. Check that out here.

3.            Puff’s Rankings

For the first time ever, I’ve taken the liberty of ranking every team in the NFL for myself. I ranked each team in a number of categories and then used a math formula to take each of them into consideration in my overall rankings of the teams. Here are my rankings heading into Week 13.

1. HOU (3.73)
9. GB (7.71)
17. TB (9.40)
25. NO (10.76)
2. SF (4.58)
10. DET (7.82)
18. StL (9.41)
26. CLE (11.37)
3. DEN (5.33)
11. WAS (8.13)
19. ARI (9.52)
27. KC (11.50)
4. NE (6.45)
12. PIT (8.27)
20. CAR (9.67)
28. BUF (11.53)
5. ATL (6.69)
13. SEA (8.28)
20. MIN (9.67)
29. OAK (11.93)
6. DAL (7.49)
14. BAL (8.86)
22. SD (10.59)
30. MIA (12.37)
7. NYG (7.53)
15. CHI (9.00)
23. NYJ (10.63)
31. TEN (12.80)
8. CIN (7.55)
16. IND (9.17)
24. PHI (10.68)
32. JAC (14.07)

Keep in mind this is essentially a ranking of where each team should be at this point in the season, based on various aspects of performance, with certain aspects weighted more heavily than others. Some teams have over- or under-achieved, such as the Ravens and Cowboys, respectively.

Feel free to ask about this, but please be clear that this is not necessarily how I would rank the teams, this is all math based.

2.            Denver Broncos

The Broncos are finally in the top 6 of the NFL.com Power Rankings. They have a great quarterback, an up-and-coming run game, and they have a terrific defense. Their only problem? They will likely have to face the Patriots in the postseason, where they have been vulnerable in the past, but not so much in 2011. And if they win that game? Look below.

1.            Houston Texans

The Texans remain number 1, and for good reason. They have the third ranked offense and the sixth ranked defense. Their turnover differential is solid and they also have the best average time-of-possession per game in the NFL. This is my Super Bowl favorite in the AFC right now.

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