Cory Puffett
Yesterday I talked about which team was better in eight
individual offensive, defensive and special teams units. But the Denver and
Seattle offensive lines will not line up opposite each other, nor will Russell
Wilson and Peyton Manning be trying to stop each other.
So while I had fun doing so, and hopefully you all enjoyed
reading yesterday’s post, I know that those “matchups” I discussed yesterday
will have no bearing on Sunday’s game.
So today I am looking at Seattle’s offense versus Denver’s
defense, Denver’s offense against Seattle’s defense, and how the two teams’
special teams will match up with each other.
Denver Offense vs.
Seattle Defense
This is the matchup that has been getting the most attention
in the media this week. Denver set an NFL record for points scored in a single
season and is second on the all-time list in points per game for a single
season.
Seattle’s defense isn’t the best off all time, but it was
easily the best this season in both yards and points allowed.
For the first week and a half of Super Bowl coverage, the
main focus has been Peyton Manning versus Seattle’s secondary.
Manning, on average, passed the ball less than 2.5 seconds
after the snap this season. His passes to Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas on
quick slants and screen passes left his hand within 1.75 seconds of the snap.
That isn’t enough time to get pressure on him.
When Manning gets to the line of scrimmage he does more than
change protections and routes. He looks at the defense and decides what his
progression will be through his receivers based on the look the defense gives
him. He tends to throw to one of his first two reads, which is why he gets the
ball out so quickly.
Seattle’s secondary has to give him different looks and mask
their coverage pre-snap to get Manning looking to his third and fourth reads,
which will give the defensive line enough time to either sack him or disrupt
him enough that he doesn’t throw accurate passes or, maybe, so he makes bad
decisions.
We know Seattle’s defensive backs like to play physical. But
Manning’s understanding of that will allow him to call for routes that will
prevent those defensive backs from disrupting his receivers the way they want
to. Because of this, Seattle may want to try a little more zone defense than
what they usually do. It’s a tough call; you don’t want to get away from what
got you to the Super Bowl. But when you face a chess master like Manning,
sometimes a little wrinkle is enough to throw him off.
The other part of this matchup involved Denver’s rushing
offense. I think Seattle has a definitive edge here, but it all relies on how
well they do in pass coverage. If Manning gets into a rhythm too early,
Seattle’s linebackers will have to drop back more to defend the pass. The
Seahawks have a very good defensive line, but Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball
have enough moves to get past them if the linebackers aren’t there filling the
gaps.
The good news for Denver is that the forecast for Sunday is
looking better and better in terms of precipitation. There is no getting past
the temperature. It is New York in early February and it is a night game. But
at least the chance for snow and/or rain seems to be decreasing. This is also
good for the fans. We want to see how Manning matches up against those
defensive backs, especially if he decides to test Richard Sherman.
Seattle’s Offense vs.
Denver’s Defense
This matchup has flown under the radar, but I am very
excited to see these two squads on the field opposite each other. From watching
Denver’s defense this year, they play looser coverage, allowing underneath
passes. But they don’t let much get passed them.
Denver also does a fantastic job in containment. Even though
Russell Wilson will find his way out of the pocket when it breaks down, he
won’t likely find much running room to take off down field. That’s the strength
of Denver’s linebackers.
At the same time, remember that Wilson doesn’t typically
look to run first. As he runs outside of the pocket, his eyes are downfield
until the moment he crosses the line of scrimmage. But I don’t expect him to
throw very many 50/50 balls in this game
Jermaine Kearse and, to some extent, Golden Tate love 50/50 balls. Both have great hands
and great body control and an innate ability to track the ball in the air. Doug
Baldwin has a lot of the same skills but he does more damage along the
sidelines.
But guys like Champ Bailey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and
Duke Ihenacho are not going to give up much position in this game. As Wilson
scrambles out of the pocket, his receivers’ best options will be to come back
toward the line of scrimmage. They will get their yards but Denver will prevent
the big plays downfield.
The biggest issue Denver will have will be stopping Marshawn
Lynch. They have some great defensive linemen, but what Seattle’s offensive
line lacks in pass protection, it more than makes up for in run blocking.
Wesley Woodyard is a very good run stopping linebacker, but Danny Trevathan is
a little better in pass protection than he is stopping the run.
More than that, none of these guys have had to tackle
someone like Marshawn Lynch this year. They did a great job against Ryan
Mathews in the divisional round and against LeGarrette Blount in the AFC Championship.
Lynch is a different animal. There’s a reason we call him Beast Mode.
Denver’s Special
Teams vs. Seattle Special Teams
Seattle has one of the best special teams units in the
league. Jon Ryan does not allow many punt returns. And those that do try to
return his punts are in for a hard hit soon after the catch the ball.
On the other end, Golden Tate is a returner who is both
shifty and explosive. My guess is that Percy Harvin will handle kickoff returns
in this game, but Tate will be in for punt returns and neither is easy to take
down. They are faster than you expect and defenders will have to be generous
with their angles or they’ll end up way behind the play.
Denver is unimpressive on special teams. They aren’t bad,
but they also aren’t great. Britton Colquitt is a very good punter, but he
doesn’t have the hang time of Jon Ryan and his coverage unit isn’t as good as
Seattle’s, either.
Trindon Holliday is explosive, but he is inconsistent as a
returner. Wes Welker has been known to bobble a punt in crucial situations and
doesn’t have the shiftiness in the open field that you would want from a punt
returner, anyway.
If this game comes down to special teams, look out Denver.
I will publish my official predictions for Super Bowl XLVIII
either tomorrow or, more likely, on Saturday. I believe my Football Freaks co-hosts will also contribute prediction blog posts
over the next two days. So, until then, thanks for reading my Super Bowl
coverage this year and enjoy the big game!
