Puff’s Picks, 2014 Wild Card

Cory Puffett

The NFL playoffs start tomorrow, and that’s why this is my favorite month of the year. Sure, the snow can sometime have the landscape looking beautiful. Sure, it’s my birthday month. But the NFL playoffs are second only to March Madness, and even then it’s a damn close second.

We’ve been waiting for these games for 11 months now. I’m ready to make my official predictions. So get out of the snow, pour yourself a cup of hot cocoa, and read on.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

January 4 – 4:35pm (NBC)

Last year, the Colts limped into the playoffs after a fairly easy regular season schedule and then were Boldin-ed to death in the wild card round. Now they are AFC South champions and get to host the Chiefs in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Kansas City went 3-5 in the second half of this season after going 8-0 in the first half of the season. The good news, if there is any, is that all five of those loses came to teams in the playoffs. Four of them were by 10 or fewer points. The exception? Their Week 16 loss to Indianapolis.

But that really isn’t particularly good news when you take into account that they haven’t beaten a good team all season. Their only victory against a team with a winning record was in Week 3 at Philadelphia. But that was the Mike Vick Eagles, and they were awful at the time.

Indy, meanwhile, has made a living off beating teams they aren’t supposed to beat.

Andy Reid won his first four Wild Card games as Philadelphia’s head coach but lost his last two, and the Colts seem to have the hot hand. I’m going to go back on where I was leaning on Wednesday and take the Colts to get the win at home.

Puff’s Pick: Colts beat Chiefs, 23-20

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

January 4 – 8:10pm (NBC)

As I mentioned on Wednesday, New Orleans is 0-5 on the road in franchise history. Now they have to play in Philadelphia, where it was snowing heavily until Friday morning. And it will be cold Saturday night.

This is an excellent example of home field advantage heavily favoring one team over the other. The Saints are all but unbeatable in the Superdome. But they already struggle on the road. Add in the weather and this game skews heavily in Philadelphia’s favor.

The Saints’ best chance to win this game is to get Darren Sproles involved in the pass game. The Eagles’ defense struggles against the pass, and they are nearly powerless to slow down multi-dimensional backs like Sproles.

New Orleans would also benefit from creating turnovers. But Philly doesn’t turn the ball over much. They only had 19 turnovers all season and most of them came from Michael Vick and Matt Barkley – yeah, I bet many of you forgot about him, didn’t you?

Puff’s Pick: Eagles beat Saints, 28-17

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

January 5 – 1:05pm (CBS)

I’ve gone 2-0 on three straight Wild Card Saturdays, so I’m reasonably confident that the Colts and Eagles will win. But I am 0-2 on each of those Wild Card Sundays, so these next two picks were much more difficult for me to settle on, especially this one. In past years, I would have taken the Bengals immediately. They already beat the Chargers in San Diego and are unbeaten at home this year.

But the Chargers have beaten teams they should have lost to in the past. Philip Rivers usually plays very well in the playoffs, and his team is red hot right now. Their defense is playing well. Their quarterback is playing well. And Ryan Mathews has regained his standing as a dangerous starting running back and Danny Woodhead can torch guys off the bench.

Maybe the thing that bothers me most, and would also usually lead me to pick Cincinnati, is that if the Chargers win Philip Rivers will get a chance to troll Peyton Manning out of the playoffs for a third time.

Favorites don’t always win in the playoffs. I’ve probably picked the wrong game to pick an underdog, but I’m going to pick the Chargers to send the Bengals packing with a third straight Wild Card loss.

Puff’s Pick: Chargers beat Bengals, 20-16

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

January 5 – 4:40pm (FOX)

My X-factor for this game is Eddie Lacy. This 49ers defense has contained Aaron Rodgers in three straight games. Colin Kaepernick beat them with his legs last year in the playoffs and with Anquan Boldin in this year’s season opener.

But can they contain Eddie Lacy? The rookie running back started in that season opener against San Francisco, gaining 41 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. But he has improved since then, and Mike McCarthy has a great system when it comes to changing up the attack with James Starks.

And if San Francisco can contain Lacy, will that free up Aaron Rodgers to have a field day with his receivers?

Green Bay’s defense has struggled this season, but they only give up about 50 more yards per game than San Francisco’s, and that could be attributed to their offense having trouble sustaining drives without Aaron Rodgers.

This would be a tough game for me to pick no matter where it is, but with the game being played in Green Bay, in the cold, I’m going to pick the Packers to get their first win against Jim Harbaugh, avenging their divisional round exit from last season.

Puff’s Pick: Packers beat 49ers, 30-27