Super Bowl XLVIII Preview: Broncos vs Seahawks

Cory Puffett

Yesterday I talked about which team was better in eight individual offensive, defensive and special teams units. But the Denver and Seattle offensive lines will not line up opposite each other, nor will Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning be trying to stop each other.

So while I had fun doing so, and hopefully you all enjoyed reading yesterday’s post, I know that those “matchups” I discussed yesterday will have no bearing on Sunday’s game.

So today I am looking at Seattle’s offense versus Denver’s defense, Denver’s offense against Seattle’s defense, and how the two teams’ special teams will match up with each other.

Denver Offense vs. Seattle Defense

This is the matchup that has been getting the most attention in the media this week. Denver set an NFL record for points scored in a single season and is second on the all-time list in points per game for a single season.

Seattle’s defense isn’t the best off all time, but it was easily the best this season in both yards and points allowed.

For the first week and a half of Super Bowl coverage, the main focus has been Peyton Manning versus Seattle’s secondary.

Manning, on average, passed the ball less than 2.5 seconds after the snap this season. His passes to Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas on quick slants and screen passes left his hand within 1.75 seconds of the snap. That isn’t enough time to get pressure on him.

When Manning gets to the line of scrimmage he does more than change protections and routes. He looks at the defense and decides what his progression will be through his receivers based on the look the defense gives him. He tends to throw to one of his first two reads, which is why he gets the ball out so quickly.

Seattle’s secondary has to give him different looks and mask their coverage pre-snap to get Manning looking to his third and fourth reads, which will give the defensive line enough time to either sack him or disrupt him enough that he doesn’t throw accurate passes or, maybe, so he makes bad decisions.

We know Seattle’s defensive backs like to play physical. But Manning’s understanding of that will allow him to call for routes that will prevent those defensive backs from disrupting his receivers the way they want to. Because of this, Seattle may want to try a little more zone defense than what they usually do. It’s a tough call; you don’t want to get away from what got you to the Super Bowl. But when you face a chess master like Manning, sometimes a little wrinkle is enough to throw him off.

The other part of this matchup involved Denver’s rushing offense. I think Seattle has a definitive edge here, but it all relies on how well they do in pass coverage. If Manning gets into a rhythm too early, Seattle’s linebackers will have to drop back more to defend the pass. The Seahawks have a very good defensive line, but Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball have enough moves to get past them if the linebackers aren’t there filling the gaps.

The good news for Denver is that the forecast for Sunday is looking better and better in terms of precipitation. There is no getting past the temperature. It is New York in early February and it is a night game. But at least the chance for snow and/or rain seems to be decreasing. This is also good for the fans. We want to see how Manning matches up against those defensive backs, especially if he decides to test Richard Sherman.

Seattle’s Offense vs. Denver’s Defense

This matchup has flown under the radar, but I am very excited to see these two squads on the field opposite each other. From watching Denver’s defense this year, they play looser coverage, allowing underneath passes. But they don’t let much get passed them.

Denver also does a fantastic job in containment. Even though Russell Wilson will find his way out of the pocket when it breaks down, he won’t likely find much running room to take off down field. That’s the strength of Denver’s linebackers.

At the same time, remember that Wilson doesn’t typically look to run first. As he runs outside of the pocket, his eyes are downfield until the moment he crosses the line of scrimmage. But I don’t expect him to throw very many 50/50 balls in this game

Jermaine Kearse and, to some extent, Golden Tate love 50/50 balls. Both have great hands and great body control and an innate ability to track the ball in the air. Doug Baldwin has a lot of the same skills but he does more damage along the sidelines.

But guys like Champ Bailey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Duke Ihenacho are not going to give up much position in this game. As Wilson scrambles out of the pocket, his receivers’ best options will be to come back toward the line of scrimmage. They will get their yards but Denver will prevent the big plays downfield.

The biggest issue Denver will have will be stopping Marshawn Lynch. They have some great defensive linemen, but what Seattle’s offensive line lacks in pass protection, it more than makes up for in run blocking. Wesley Woodyard is a very good run stopping linebacker, but Danny Trevathan is a little better in pass protection than he is stopping the run.

More than that, none of these guys have had to tackle someone like Marshawn Lynch this year. They did a great job against Ryan Mathews in the divisional round and against LeGarrette Blount in the AFC Championship. Lynch is a different animal. There’s a reason we call him Beast Mode.

Denver’s Special Teams vs. Seattle Special Teams

Seattle has one of the best special teams units in the league. Jon Ryan does not allow many punt returns. And those that do try to return his punts are in for a hard hit soon after the catch the ball.

On the other end, Golden Tate is a returner who is both shifty and explosive. My guess is that Percy Harvin will handle kickoff returns in this game, but Tate will be in for punt returns and neither is easy to take down. They are faster than you expect and defenders will have to be generous with their angles or they’ll end up way behind the play.

Denver is unimpressive on special teams. They aren’t bad, but they also aren’t great. Britton Colquitt is a very good punter, but he doesn’t have the hang time of Jon Ryan and his coverage unit isn’t as good as Seattle’s, either.

Trindon Holliday is explosive, but he is inconsistent as a returner. Wes Welker has been known to bobble a punt in crucial situations and doesn’t have the shiftiness in the open field that you would want from a punt returner, anyway.

If this game comes down to special teams, look out Denver.

I will publish my official predictions for Super Bowl XLVIII either tomorrow or, more likely, on Saturday. I believe my Football Freaks co-hosts will also contribute prediction blog posts over the next two days. So, until then, thanks for reading my Super Bowl coverage this year and enjoy the big game!