Tomorrow I will preview the Super Bowl matchup and on Friday
I will make my official prediction, as will my Football Freaks co-hosts.
Today I want to begin my preview process by taking what I
know from scouting the two teams last week and comparing each team’s individual
units to each other.
I did this with last year’s Super Bowl matchup between
Baltimore and San Francisco and got a lot of feedback. And so now I’m back at
it with this year’s Broncos and Seahawks.
Quarterbacks
All discussion surrounding these teams tends to begin with
the individuals starting at quarterback, so let’s go ahead and knock that out
here.
Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks in the game.
He makes quick pre-snap decisions to change plays and put his playmakers in the
best position to help his team gain yards on every play. He also makes quick
decisions after the snap, giving the defense little time to break down his
pocket and the secondary little room for error in their coverage of his
receivers.
Russell Wilson does not have the experience Manning has.
Wilson is the sixth quarterback in NFL history to lead his team to the Super
Bowl in his first two seasons. He lacks the quick decision making that Manning
has, and he also lacks height. But Wilson is one of the most talented young
quarterbacks in the game. He has a sixth sense about him that allows him to
keep his eyes downfield even as he scrambles from a broken pocket on almost every
play.
In a game like this, though, I think experience is just a
little more important than talent. And it isn’t like Manning is completely
devoid of talent anyway.
Edge: Broncos
Running Backs
I love what Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball have done this year
for Denver. Both are great runners and allow Denver to switch off players to
always have fresh legs on the field. They root for each other during games,
too, which is important. Ronnie Hillman is also a very good runner but his
fumbling problems will likely keep him out of this game as they have through
the second half of this season.
Marshawn Lynch is the main guy for Seattle, and he is very
capable. He is one of the best running backs in the league right now, and he
has been almost since he first arrived in Seattle. And there shouldn’t be any
worry about him wearing down during the game. He rarely does, and even when
Seattle does want fresh legs out there, Robert Turbin is no slouch.
Edge: Seahawks
Receivers
This is not as cut and dry as one might assume. I love Denver’s receivers. Demaryius
Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are four of the best
receivers in the NFL right now, especially with Manning at the helm. And then
you have guys like Andre Caldwell, Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme who can be
plugged into the offense at any given time and respond well. The strength of
the Broncos receiving corps is not just its strength at the top; it’s the depth
it boasts.
But I also really like Seattle’s receivers. Golden Tate
irritates me with his tendency to showboat, but he is a very good receiver with
some of the best hands in the NFL. His height often leads to offensive pass
interference calls when he goes up for a big catch, but he doesn’t always get
called even though he always finds a way to come down with the ball. Jermaine
Kearse and Doug Baldwin are two of the most underrated receivers in the league.
Kearse doesn’t drop passes and Baldwin is one of the best sideline receivers in
the game right now. Remember Mario Manningham’s amazing sideline catch in Super
Bowl XLVI? Baldwin has made at least three of those this season.
Seattle also has Percy Harvin and Ricardo Lockette, but with
their level of involvement this weekend in question, Seattle doesn’t come that
close to matching Denver’s depth at this position.
Edge: Broncos
Offensive Line
This is a difficult one to dissect. Seattle’s offensive line
is very good in run blocking, but it was probably the worst pass blocking line
in football this season. Denver’s line is very good in pass protection, made
better by Manning’s quick release on most plays, and respectable in run
blocking. But it does often fatigue late in the third quarter or early in the
fourth quarter.
I watched every snap of every game Denver and Seattle played
this regular season and postseason. Rarely did Seattle run a pass play where
Russell Wilson didn’t have to scramble from the pocket. Now, it is a very
difficult job to establish a pocket that a short player can see and throw from.
But often the pocket is gone within two seconds of the ball being snapped.
Denver’s offensive line does not have the same problem. The
only thing that concerns me about their offensive line in pass protection is
that when it breaks down late in the game, it tends to collapse on the left side
of the line, which is Manning’s blind side. In run protection, Denver runs a
lot out of the shotgun, which means that they run block much like they pass
block. They do a good enough job of it, but the problem is that if the
linebackers cheat up to play the run, they will plug up Denver’s running lanes.
When Seattle blocks for Marshawn Lynch, they plow ahead and
deal off a wall, making it difficult for defenders to get a hand on Lynch
before he crosses the line of scrimmage. And of course we all know what Lynch
can do once he gets a head of steam.
Edge: Tie
Defensive Line
Both teams run a 4-3
defense, which makes it a little easier to compare the teams. I love Terrance
Knighton and Shaun Phillips on Denver’s defensive line, and Robert Ayers is
also very good. But the left side of that line is a little weaker. Nothing
against Malik Jackson and Sylvester Williams, but Seattle will have a lot more
success running to that side of the line.
Seattle’s defensive line is just better, and it’s deeper.
Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Brandon Mebane and Tony McDaniel are the starters
and then you have guys like Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril backing them up.
This might be the best defensive line in all of football. They are very good in
run stopping and they got pressure on opposing quarterbacks all season.
A big story line of this Sunday’s game will be whether
Peyton can get the ball out quickly enough to beat Seattle’s pass rush.
Edge: Seahawks
Linebackers
Again, I really like Denver’s linebackers. Wesley Woodyard
is a tackling machine and Danny Trevathan has overcome a nationally televised
blunder in the regular season opener against Baltimore to become a leader on
that defense. They are great against the rush and they are very good against
the pass. And hey, Nate Irving is pretty damn good, too.
But it’s hard to call them better than Seattle’s
linebackers. Bruce Irvin is very good and Bobby Wagner is severely underrated
as a middle linebacker. He’s the best coverage linebacker in this game, and
he’ll make an impact against the run, too. I think Denver has a little more
depth at linebacker, but this position isn’t all about depth.
Edge: Tie
Secondary
Champ Bailey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Duke Ihenacho,
Mike Adams, Tony Carter, and Quentin Jammer… that just sounds like an all-star
secondary. And it is. They struggled to find an identity early in the season,
but they have gotten better every week and have really had a solid postseason
so far.
But then you throw out Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, Kam
Chancellor and Byron Maxwell. These guys never had to search for an identity.
They are the “Legion of Boom.” They
have been since the season started. And don’t worry about depth; Jeremy Lane
and Parish Cox are perfectly capable backup corners if they are called on.
Edge: Seahawks
Special Teams
This one is a no brainer. In the punting game, Seattle leads
by a mile. Jon Ryan punted 74 times this season and only 21 of them were
returned. On those 21 returns, opponents gained less than four yards per return
and only about five yards per game. Golden Tate handled returns all year for
Seattle and averaged 11.5 yards per return. Their blocking is great and his
elusiveness is greater.
Denver simply doesn’t have that on punt returns. Trindon
Holliday is a good returner, but he doesn’t always make great decisions. As for
Wes Welker, he doesn’t have the speed of Tate. And Britton Colquitt is a very
good punter, but he didn’t have the same success in avoiding returns that Jon
Ryan did this year.
Now, in the kick return factory, you would probably say that
Denver has the edge. They certainly did in the regular season on both sides of
the ball. But Percy Harvin was out most of the season. In his first action, he
returned a kickoff against the Minnesota Vikings. It was his only kick return
of the season and it went for 58 yards, Seattle’s longest of the year. I wouldn’t
be surprised to see him fielding kicks on Sunday.
Edge: Seahawks
Total: Seattle 4, Denver 2, Tie 2
No comments:
Post a Comment