Puff’s Picks, 2014 Divisional Playoffs

Cory Puffett

I went 2-2 for the fourth straight year on my wild card predictions. The past three I had gone 2-0 on Saturday and 0-2 on Sunday. Last week I went 1-1 each day, but was 2-0 in the AFC and 0-2 in the NFC.

This week I’ll hopefully do better. I’ve gone 3-1 on divisional round picks for two years running after going 2-2 in this round following the 2010 season. I’ve missed the first game of the last two divisional rounds (I picked New Orleans to beat San Francisco in January 2012 and picked Denver to beat Baltimore last year).

Anyway, let’s get to this weekend’s picks.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

January 11 – 4:35pm (FOX)

I like that the Saints got a road win last week in Philadelphia. I showed my optimism that his could be a good game in my preview on Wednesday.

The fact of the matter is that the Saints went 3-5 on the road this season. The Eagles have consistently had one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL. Their fans are rowdy all right, but they spend too much energy heckling opposing fans rather than disrupting the visiting team. That New Orleans won by so little, even with the weather playing a bit of a factor, ultimately worries me.

Pete Carroll seems to have the Saints’ number. The Saints’ offense, in my opinion, is no better than it was in the 2010 season. New Orleans has improved a lot on defense, but so has Seattle on offense. The biggest difference between these two teams from the 2011 playoffs to now is how much better Seattle’s defense is.

I’m fond of the Saints, if only because they’re Eric’s favorite team. But I really don’t think they can win this game. The NFC #1 seed has lost four times in the last six seasons, but none of those teams had a home field advantage quite like Seattle does.

Puff’s Pick: Seahawks beat Saints, 34-20.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

January 11 – 8:15pm (CBS)

Tom Brady was sacked 40 times this season, and they came at a faster clip when Rob Gronkowski was hurt. Now New England is going up against one of the NFL’s great sack machines in Robert Mathis. No quarterback, even the great Tom Brady, is at his best when under constant pressure.

With the Colts’ addition of Deion Branch at receiver, old as he is, I’m not nearly as worried about their receiving corps going up against New England’s defense as I would have been. At this point, the success of the Indy offense will come down to play calling. My main concern is whether they go with the hot hand at running back (Donald Brown) or the guy who talks a big game but hasn’t shown anything to back it up (Trent Richardson).

The Patriots won 14 of their first 16 playoff games with Tom Brady at quarterback. Their three wins since then came against Tim Tebow’s Broncos, Flacco’s 2011 Ravens and last year’s Texans, which were not the same after Brian Cushing got hurt. I know Indy is banged up, but they seem to have righted their ship.

Puff’s Pick: Colts beat Patriots, 23-20.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

January 12 – 1:05pm (FOX)

I really want to pick the Panthers to win this game. I’m excited for Ron Rivera. I’m excited for Cam Newton. I am excited that their vast improvement on defense from last season has so quickly been rewarded with a high regular season finish within the conference.

But these are not the 49ers that Carolina played earlier this season. Granted, the Panthers have also reached higher levels since then, but San Francisco has Michael Crabtree healthy and playing very well. As for Colin Kaepernick, he played very poorly in that game but now that the playoffs are here he isn’t being kept from running.

I like this Panthers team and I would love to see how they’d match up with the Seahawks in the NFC Championship, but I really think that the 49ers, with their long win streak and tendency to play at a higher level in the postseason, have the edge in this game.

Puff’s Pick: 49ers beat Panthers, 27-17.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

January 12 – 4:40pm (CBS)

I’ve gone back and forth with this pick more than I’d like to admit over the past couple days. This has all the signs of another Peyton Manning one-and-done. But I actually like this matchup for Denver.

Last year the Broncos were booted from the playoffs by the Ravens, a team that limped into the playoffs and then beat an Indianapolis team that had made the postseason purely on a weak strength of schedule.

This year they get a team that is hot, having won five in a row, including one in Denver. Obviously guys like Peyton, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas and several others are not going to take any opponent lightly. But the role players are just as important in this game and where some of them may not have taken Baltimore as seriously as they should have last year, I can’t imagine they’ll make the same mistake this time around.

Because of that, and the fact that Denver is simply a better team than San Diego, I am going to take the Broncos. I know that recent history isn’t really on Denver’s side, but I think San Diego has hit the end of their win streak.

Puff’s Pick: Broncos beat Chargers, 31-27.